# Urban Transportation, Land Use, Air Quality, and Health

Xinyu Chen, Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, Chris P Nielsen, and Chongqing Kang. 2014. “Synergies of wind power and electrified space heating: A case study for Beijing.” Environmental Science & Technology, 48, 3, Pp. 2016–2024. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Demands for electricity and energy to supply heat are expected to expand by 71% and 47%, respectively, for Beijing in 2020 relative to 2009. If the additional electricity and heat are supplied solely by coal as is the current situation, annual emissions of CO2 may be expected to increase by 59.6% or 99 million tons over this interval. Assessed against this business as usual (BAU) background, the present study indicates that significant reductions in emissions could be realized using wind-generated electricity to provide a source of heat, employed either with heat pumps or with electric thermal storage (ETS) devices. Relative to BAU, reductions in CO2 with heat pumps assuming 20% wind penetration could be as large as 48.5% and could be obtained at a cost for abatement of as little as $15.6 per ton of avoided CO2. Even greater reductions, 64.5%, could be realized at a wind penetration level of 40% but at a higher cost,$29.4 per ton. Costs for reduction of CO2 using ETS systems are significantly higher, reflecting the relatively low efficiency for conversion of coal to power to heat.

Sumeeta Srinivasan. 2010. “Linking travel behavior and location in Chengdu, China: A geographically weighted approach.” Transportation Research Record, 2193, Pp. 85-95. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This study uses geographically weighted regressions and multilevel models to understand the implications of location and attitudinal characteristics for travel behavior in Chengdu, China. In particular, the estimated distance traveled and the mode choice of nonmotorized versus motorized vehicles for work- and school-related trips were examined by using a recent household trip diary data set. The results suggest that location characteristics may be influential in the prediction of travel behavior but cannot be fully captured by simple categorization such as inner ring location versus peripheral location. Variations in travel behavior can be related to socioeconomic and location variables in ways that vary by location in a complex manner. Policy makers should therefore reconsider the role that location and attitudinal implications may play in meeting travel demand in rapidly developing cities like Chengdu.
Yu Deng and Sumeeta Srinivasan. 2016. “Urban land use change and regional access: A case study in Beijing, China.” Habitat International, 51, February, Pp. 103-113. Publisher's VersionAbstract

In the recent past Beijing has experienced rapid development. This growth has been accompanied by many problems including traffic congestion and air pollution. Understanding what stimulates urban growth is important for sustainable development in the coming years. In this paper, we first estimate a binary auto-logistic model of land use change, using physical and socioeconomic characteristics of the location and its access to major centers within the city as predictors. We find that variables determining regional access, like time distance to the city center, the Central Business District (CBD), industrial centers, employment centers, and the transportation system, significantly impact urban land conversion. By using measures of access to predict land use change we believe that we can better understand the planning implications of urban growth not only in Beijing but other rapidly developing cities.

Rong Xie, Clive E. Sabel, Xi Lu, Weimo Zhu, Haidong Kan, Chris P. Nielsen, and Haikun Wang. 2016. “Long-term trend and spatial pattern of PM2.5-induced premature mortality in China.” Environment International, 97, Pp. 180-186. Publisher's VersionAbstract

With rapid economic growth, China has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe haze and smog episodes over the past decade, posing serious health impacts to the Chinese population, especially those in densely populated city clusters. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variation of health impacts attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has important implications for China's policies on air pollution control. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution of premature deaths in China between 2000 and 2010 attributable to ambient PM2.5 in accord with the Global Burden of Disease based on a high resolution population density map of China, satellite retrieved PM2.5 concentrations, and provincial health data. Our results suggest that China's anthropogenic ambient PM2.5 led to 1,255,400 premature deaths in 2010, 42% higher than the level in 2000. Besides increased PM2.5 concentration, rapid urbanization has attracted large population migration into the more developed eastern coastal urban areas, intensifying the overall health impact. In addition, our analysis implies that health burdens were exacerbated in some developing inner provinces with high population density (e.g. Henan, Anhui, Sichuan) because of the relocation of more polluting and resource-intensive industries into these regions. In order to avoid such national level environmental inequities, China's regulations on PM2.5 should not be loosened in inner provinces. Furthermore policies should create incentive mechanisms that can promote transfer of advanced production and emissions control technologies from the coastal regions to the interior regions.

Chenghe Guan. In Press. “Spatial distribution of high-rise buildings and its relationship to public transit development in Shanghai.” Transport Policy. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The relationship between dense urban development, often represented by high-rise buildings, and its location vis-à-vis metro stations reflects the connection between transportation infrastructure and land use intensity. Existing literature on high-rise buildings has focused either on developed countries or on cities where urban and public transit developments have occurred in an uncoordinated manner. This paper examines the following questions: What is the spatial proximity and spatial correlation between high-rise buildings and metro stations in different stages of development in various parts of the city? What were some of the factors that resulted in the observed patterns? The results suggest that buildings constructed after 2000 and buildings within the urban core/Shanghai Proper districts had a greater spatial proximity to the metro stations. However, the spatial correlation, measured by the number of high-rise buildings within a 500-meter buffer from the nearest metro stations and the time-distance to these stations, is stronger in the outer districts than in the urban core. These differences can be accounted for by Shanghai’s stages of urban development, the existence of metro infrastructure when high-rise development was undertaken, and the city’s land use policies. This case study sheds light on the relationship between high-density developments and metro systems in other large cities in China and other developing countries where rapid urban development coincides with the establishment of a comprehensive public transit system.

# Household Survey of Travel Behavior and Environmental Health Risk in Chengdu

May 27, 2016

An interdisciplinary household survey in Chengdu, led by China Project Executive Director Chris NIELSEN, Prof. James HAMMITT (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health), and Profs. SHEN Mingming and YAN Jie (School of Government, Peking University), was completed in July and data files are now being prepared.... Read more about Household Survey of Travel Behavior and Environmental Health Risk in Chengdu

2016 Mar 03

# Water and Climate Change: Adaptation, Uncertainty, Decision Scaling and the Implications for China

8:30pm to 9:45pm

## Location:

Pierce Hall 100F, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge MA
2015 Apr 16

# Decarbonizing China: Power System Strategies to Electrify Transportation and Building Heating with Renewable Sources

4:00pm to 6:15pm

## Location:

Pierce Hall 100F, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge MA
2015 Jan 15

# Urban Water Supply-Demand Management Under Uncertainty: A Portfolio-Based Approach Applied to Melbourne, Australia and Kunming, China

3:30pm to 4:45pm

## Location:

Pierce Hall 100F, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge MA
2010 Nov 04

# Scenario Analyses of China's Vehicle Emissions on Regional Air Quality in 2000 and 2020

3:30pm to 4:45pm

## Location:

Pierce 100F, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA
2010 Oct 14

# CO2 and its Correlation with CO at a Rural Site Near Beijing: Implications for Combustion Efficiency in China

3:30pm to 4:45pm

## Location:

Pierce 100F, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA