@article {47136,
	title = {A dynamic programming model of China{\textquoteright}s strategic petroleum reserve: General strategy and the effect of emergencies},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	volume = {34},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {1234-1243},
	abstract = {To protect the security of energy supply, China is building national strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). We present a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies for China{\textquoteright}s SPR under various scenarios, focusing on minimizing the total cost of reserves. In contrast to previous research, the oil price given in our model is exogenous on a monthly instead of annual basis, with a view to more realistic simulation of optimal strategies each year. Our model results show that in the case where stockpiling affects oil prices, a given SPR size will be achieved earlier than when stockpiling does not affect oil prices. In different emergency conditions, the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies of China{\textquoteright}s SPR are very different. When an emergency occurs, the shock of stockpiling on the oil price per barrel could range $0.49{\textendash}$6.35, while the impact of drawdown on the oil price per barrel could range -$6.22 to -$0.48.},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988311002829},
	author = {Wu, Gang and Wei, Yi-Ming and Nielsen, Chris P and Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B.}
}
