@article {1569076, title = {Large methane mitigation potential through prioritized closure of gas-rich coal mines}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, year = {In Press}, author = {Qiang Liu and Fei Teng and Chris P. Nielsen and Yuzhong Zhang and Lixin Wu} } @article {1559621, title = {Transition from plan to market: Imperfect regulations in the electricity sector of China}, journal = {Journal of Comparative Economics}, year = {In Press}, abstract = {We present evidence on the distortions that arise from imperfect regulations compared with market allocation mechanisms. Using a triple difference strategy, we evaluate the effectiveness of the Energy-Saving Generation Dispatch reform in China, which aims to allocate more generating hours to power plants with higher energy efficiency. We find that the new dispatch rule improved resource allocation within provinces compared with the previous equal-share dispatch rule. However, despite these improvements, the reform fell short of its intended goals because of the failure to strictly implement the merit order based on real-time coal consumption rates. We demonstrate\ how the lack of compensation for losers, technical requirements for grid stability, the existence of multiple goals, and information costs contribute to imperfect regulation.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596724000027?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Jing Cao and Mun S. Ho and Rong Ma and Yu Zhang} } @article {1553681, title = {Health benefits of vehicle electrification through air pollution in Shanghai, China}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {914}, year = {2024}, pages = {169859}, abstract = {Vehicle electrification has been recognized for its potential to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Several studies have estimated how national-level policies of electric vehicle (EV) adoption might bring very large environmental and public health benefits from improved air quality to China. However, large-scale adoption is very costly, some regions derive more benefits from large-scale EV adoption than others, and the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines in specific cities is less known. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to design incentives based on regional characteristics {\textendash} especially for megacities like Shanghai {\textendash} which typically suffer from worse air quality and where a larger population is exposed to emissions from vehicles. Over the past five years, Shanghai has offered substantial personal subsidies for passenger EVs to accelerate its electrification efforts. Still, it remains uncertain whether EV benefits justify the strength of incentives. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the health and climate benefits of replacing light-duty gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with battery EVs in the city of Shanghai. We assess health impacts due to ICEV emissions of primary fine particulate matter, NOx, and volatile organic compounds, and to powerplant emissions of NOx\ and SO2\ due to EV charging. We incorporate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions based on existing research. We find that the benefit of replacing the average ICEV with an EV in Shanghai is US$6400 (2400-14,700), with health impacts of EVs about 20 times lower than the average ICEV. Larger benefits ensue if older ICEVs are replaced, but replacing newer China ICEVs also achieves positive health benefits. As Shanghai plans to stop providing personal subsidies for EV purchases in 2024, our results show that EVs achieve public health and climate benefits and can help inform policymaking strategies in Shanghai and other megacities.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969723084917?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Saiwen Zhang and Yiliang Jiang and Shaojun Zhang and Ernani F. Choma} } @article {1565051, title = {Causal effect of aviation on air pollution: An instrumental variable from faraway COVID-19 restrictions in China}, journal = {China Economic Review}, volume = {84}, year = {2024}, pages = {102140}, abstract = {The causal impacts of aviation on local air pollution are poorly understood. Leveraging variation in aviation frequency caused by COVID-19 travel restrictions that occurred hundreds of miles away between 2020 and 2022, this study identifies the short-run effect of aviation on air pollution in Hangzhou, a Chinese megacity. The results demonstrate that a one standard deviation change in aviation is associated with 12\% to 21.82\% changes in ambient pollution concentrations, with even more substantial pollution effects on downwind days and flights departing from Hangzhou, respectively. These estimates also remain robust to alternative specifications, satisfy external validity beyond Hangzhou and the epidemic period, and exclude pollution spillover effects. We further quantify the welfare losses from aviation pollution and find that people are willing to pay 1.76 US dollars a day in per capita household income for reducing pollution caused by each standard deviation increase in flights (i.e., 134 flights). Further analysis reveals higher economic losses resulting from pollutants at international airports. Our results underscore the need to regulate airborne contaminants from aviation in China urgently.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X24000294?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Jianglong Li and Jinfeng Gao and Mun Sing Ho} } @article {1572831, title = {End-year China wind power installation rush reduces electric system reliability}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {133}, year = {2024}, pages = {107507}, abstract = {The urgent challenge posed by climate change has catalyzed global efforts to transition towards sustainable energy sources, with wind power emerging as a pivotal component. However, the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources has raised concerns about electric system reliability, given their intermittent and hard-to-forecast nature. China has provided incentives that promoted the rapid expansion of wind. However, the structure of some incentives led to the phenomenon of end-year rushes to install wind power before incentives expire. Leveraging panel data from China{\textquoteright}s provinces, we empirically estimate the impact of these installation rushes on electric reliability. We find significant adverse effects, with a one-standard-deviation increase in installation rush corresponding to a 0.767\% decrease in the reliability rate and a 39.6-min increase in annual outage duration. Notably, urban areas and the northwestern grid are particularly vulnerable to the disruptions caused by year-end installation rushes. In the urban areas of the northwestern grid, we identify the potential for substantial improvements in the lower bound of the reliability rate, from 98.86\% to 99.37\%, or a reduction in outage duration from 11.65\ h to 7.16\ h. These findings show the importance of structuring incentives properly and the importance of improvements in grid infrastructure and management in the transition to a low-carbon world.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324002159?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Jianglong Li and Mun Sing Ho} } @article {1532611, title = {Deploying solar photovoltaic energy first in carbon-intensive regions brings gigatons more carbon mitigation by 2060}, journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment}, volume = {4}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The global surge in solar photovoltaic (PV) power has featured spatial specialization from manufacturing to installation along its industrial chain. Yet how to improve PV climate benefits are under-investigated. Here we explore the evolution of net greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation of PV industry from 2009{\textendash}2060 with a spatialized-dynamic life-cycle-analysis. Results suggest a net GHG mitigation of 1.29 Gt CO2-equivalent from 2009{\textendash}2019, achieved by 1.97 Gt of mitigation from installation minus 0.68 Gt of emissions from manufacturing. The highest net GHG mitigation among future manufacturing-installation-scenarios to meet 40\% global power demand in 2060 is as high as 204.7 Gt from 2020{\textendash}2060, featuring manufacturing concentrated in Europe and North America and prioritized PV installations in carbon-intensive nations. This represents 97.5 Gt more net mitigation than the worst-case scenario, equivalent to 1.9 times 2020 global GHG emissions. The results call for strategic international coordination of PV industrial chain to increase GHG net mitigation.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01006-x}, author = {Xi Lu and Shi Chen and Chris Nielsen and Michael McElroy and Gang He and Shaohui Zhang and Kebin He and Xiu Yang and Fang Zhang and Jiming Hao} } @article {1518521, title = {Sustained emission reductions have restrained the ozone pollution over China}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, year = {2023}, abstract = {

Near-surface ozone pollution, associated with complex responses to changing precursor emissions and meteorological conditions, has become one of the biggest challenges in China{\textquoteright}s air quality management. Here, we present the spatiotemporal evolution of ozone concentrations from 2010 to 2021 using measurements of the national air quality monitoring network. We evaluate the effectiveness of the national air pollution control programme, including Phase 1 (2013{\textendash}2017) and Phase 2 (2018{\textendash}2021), in reducing the ozone level over China, using an optimized machine learning approach, high-resolution emission estimates and an improved air quality model. We find that while emission changes in Phase 1 increased the ozone level over the five highly developed regions, further reductions of nitrogen oxide emissions in Phase 2 have generally constrained the ozone pollution. The changing effect of emission controls on ozone pollution is due to the shift in the prevailing regime for ozone formation and the weakened effects of aerosol declines, as emission reductions continue. We further find that current emission controls have been more effective in rural locales in four of the five regions, and more effective in summer than winter. Therefore, further control of ozone pollution should consider these regional and seasonal variations to identify the most important precursors for the pollution.

}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01284-2}, author = {Yu Zhao and Yutong Wang and Yiming Liu and Yueqi Jiang and Bo Zheng and Jia Xing and Yang Liu and Shuai Wang and Chris Nielsen} } @article {1542941, title = {Toward environmental sustainability: data-driven analysis of energy use patterns and load profiles for urban electric vehicle fleets}, journal = {Energy}, volume = {285}, year = {2023}, pages = {129465}, abstract = {The scale-up of urban electric vehicle (EV) fleets, driven by environmental benefits, is resulting in surging aggregate energy demands that may reshape a city{\textquoteright}s power supply. This paper establishes an integrated data-driven assessment model for investigating the energy use (kWh) patterns and charging load (kW) profiles of urban-scale EV fleets. To this end, urban EV operating and operational datasets are linked with climate data and vehicle specifications. Four vehicle fleet types are distinguished: private, taxi, rental, and business fleets. Statistical models regarding distribution analysis, spectrum analysis, and identical distribution tests are employed to analyze the patterns of driving distances, energy consumption, and shares of active charging EVs. The minute-level changes in charging EV numbers and aggregate charging power are examined to reflect the grid load impact. The results show that private light-duty EVs in Beijing consume an average of 9.1\ kWh/day, with more charging activities on Fridays. The primary load peaks of light-duty EVs in Beijing usually occur between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m., attributable chiefly to the private fleet{\textquoteright}s midnight peak load estimated at 28\ \% of the total daily charging private EV count multiplied by 5.5\ kW/EV. Secondary peaks occur between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. on weekdays for private fleets, and at 4 p.m. for public fleets. Our work can be extensively used for analyses on transport emissions, urban power supply, infrastructure build-ups, and policymaking.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544223028591}, author = {Yang Zhao and Ziyue Jiang and Xinyu Chen and Peng Liu and Tianduo Peng and Zhan Shu} } @article {1474416, title = {Small states as helpless pawns? Panama{\textquoteright}s diplomatic strategy over the Taiwan Strait}, journal = {Cambridge Review of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, note = {Download the PDF}, abstract = {A traditional great power stereotype of small states is that of helpless pawns in world politics. After Panama severed its longstanding diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 2017, small state diplomacy once again came under the spotlight. By tracing Panama{\textquoteright}s convoluted diplomatic relations over the Taiwan Strait since 1949, we argue that, rather than great power competition alone, it is Panama{\textquoteright}s state capacity and its strategic calculations about external threats that account for the shifts in its relations with Taiwan and Mainland China. We further identify five strategies adopted by Panama: bandwagoning, status-seeking, issue linkages, two-sided bargaining, and diplomatic recognition. By bringing agency back into the agent-structure debate, this article shows how, as an agent, Panama has maximised its action space and sheds light on Taiwan administration{\textquoteright}s shrinking international recognition against the backdrop of the rising global influence of the People{\textquoteright}s Republic of China.}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09557571.2023.2170872}, author = {Chen Xiang and Qiang Xin} } @article {1513836, title = {Aging Population, Balanced Diet and China{\textquoteright}s Grain Demand}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {15}, year = {2023}, pages = {2877}, abstract = {The need to make more accurate grain demand (GD) forecasting has become a major topic in the current international grain security discussion. Our research aims to improve short-term GD prediction by establishing a multi-factor model that integrates the key factors: shifts in dietary structures, population size and age structure, urbanization, food waste, and the impact of COVID-19. These factors were not considered simultaneously in previous research. To illustrate the model, we projected China{\textquoteright}s annual GDP from 2022 to 2025. We calibrated key parameters such as conversion coefficients from animal foods to feed grain, standard person consumption ratios, and population size using the latest surveys and statistical data that were either out of date or missing in previous research. Results indicate that if the change in diets continued at the rate as observed during 2013{\textendash}2019 (scenario 1), China{\textquoteright}s GD is projected to be 629.35 million tons in 2022 and 658.16 million tons in 2025. However, if diets shift to align with the recommendations in the Dietary Guideline for Chinese Residents 2022 (scenario 2), GD would be lower by 5.9{\textendash}11.1\% annually compared to scenario 1. A reduction in feed grain accounts for 68\% of this change. Furthermore, for every 1 percentage point increase in the population adopting a balanced diet, GD would fall by 0.44{\textendash}0.73 million tons annually during that period. Overlooking changes in the population age structure could lead to an overprediction of annual GDP by 3.8\% from 2022 to 2025. With an aging population, China{\textquoteright}s GD would fall slightly, and adopting a balanced diet would not lead to an increase in GD but would have positive impacts on human health and the environment. Our sensitivity analysis indicated that reducing food waste, particularly cereal, livestock, and poultry waste, would have significant effects on reducing GD, offsetting the higher demand due to rising urbanization and higher incomes. These results underscore the significance of simultaneous consideration of multiple factors, particularly the dietary structure and demographic composition, resulting in a more accurate prediction of GD. Our findings should be useful for policymakers concerning grain security, health, and environmental protection.}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/13/2877}, author = {Xiuli Liu and Mun S. Ho and Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Yuxing Dou and Shouyang Wang and Guangzhou Wang and Dabo Guan and Shantong Li} } @article {1472866, title = {Analyzing multi-greenhouse gas mitigation of China using a general equilibrium model}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {18}, year = {2023}, pages = {025001}, abstract = {Climate actions have focused on CO2 mitigation and only some studies of China consider non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), which account for nearly 18\% of gross GHG emissions. The economy-wide impact of mitigation covering CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs in China, has not been comprehensively studied and we develop a multi-sector dynamic model to compare the impact of CO2-only mitigation with a multi-GHG mitigation policy that also price non-CO2 GHGs. We find that the multi-GHG approach significantly reduces the marginal abatement cost and economic loss to reach the same level of GHG emissions (measures as 100 year global warming potential) compared to a CO2-only scenario. By 2060, multi-gas mitigation can reduce the tax rate by 15.44\% and improve real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.41\%. The aggregate gain brought by multi-GHG mitigation are robust to various pathways and but vary across periods and sectors.}, url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acb0e7}, author = {Jing Cao and Mun Ho and Qingfeng Liu} } @article {1457826, title = {Grid integration feasibility and investment planning of offshore wind power under carbon-neutral transition in China}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {14}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Offshore wind power, with accelerated declining levelized costs, is emerging as a critical building-block to fully decarbonize the world{\textquoteright}s largest CO2\ emitter, China. However, system integration barriers as well as system balancing costs have not been quantified yet. Here we develop a bottom-up model to test the grid accommodation capabilities and design the optimal investment plans for offshore wind power considering resource distributions, hourly power system simulations, and transmission/storage/hydrogen investments. Results indicate that grid integration barriers exist currently at the provincial level. For 2030, optimized offshore wind investment levels should be doubled compared with current government plans, and provincial allocations should be significantly improved considering both resource quality and grid conditions. For 2050, offshore wind capacity in China could reach as high as 1500 GW, prompting a paradigm shift in national transmission structure, favoring long-term storage in the energy portfolio, enabling green hydrogen production in coastal demand centers, resulting in the world{\textquoteright}s largest wind power market.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37536-3}, author = {Xinyang Guo and Xinyu Chen and Xia Chen and Peter Sherman and Jinyu Wen and Michael McElroy} } @article {1537151, title = {The growing impact of ICT productivity via the cost of capital: Evidence from the U.S. and Japan}, journal = {Telecommunications Policy}, volume = {47}, year = {2023}, pages = {102635}, abstract = {We identify and measure two impacts of industry-level\ total factor productivity(TFP) growth on aggregate price change in the U.S. and Japan. The first is a standard effect from the definition of aggregate GDP. TFP change lowers aggregate prices ceteris paribus. The second is that a change in TFP in the production of investment goods lowers the cost of capital via lower investment prices. We call this the cost-of-capital effect and formulate an expanded growth accounting framework to capture both effects. We apply it to a harmonized dataset for the two countries and find that the standard effect has fallen since the peak around 2000 due to lower TFP growth and a diminished share of GDP. However, the cost-of-capital effect has risen in importance and offsets part of this decline in the standard effect.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308596123001465}, author = {Mun S. Ho and Koji Nomura and Jon D. Samuels} } @article {1565126, title = {Impacts of Receiving International Industrial Transfer on China{\textquoteright}s Air Quality and Health Exceed Those of Export Trade}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology}, year = {2023}, pages = {16989{\textendash}16998}, abstract = {Benefiting from international economic cooperation on income, technology diffusion, and employment, China also suffers its environmental and health impacts, from both international trade (IT), as is now widely understood, and international industrial transfer (IIT), which has been largely unrecognized. Here, we develop a comprehensive framework to estimate the impacts of exporting IT and receiving IIT. We find that China{\textquoteright}s emissions of CO2\ and almost all air pollutants associated with IIT and IT together grew after 1997 but then declined after 2010, with the peak shares of national total emissions ranging 18{\textendash}31\% for different species. These sources further accounted for 3.8\% of nationwide PM2.5\ concentrations and 94,610 (76,000{\textendash}112,040) premature deaths in 2012, and the values declined to 2.6\% and 67,370 (52,390{\textendash}81,810), respectively, for 2017. Separated, the contribution of IIT to those impacts was more than twice that of IT. Scenario analyses suggest that improving emission controls in its less-developed regions would effectively reduce the impact of economic globalization, but such a benefit could be largely offset by strengthened international economic cooperation. The outcomes provide a scientific basis for adjusting China{\textquoteright}s strategic roles in the international distribution of industrial production and its formulation of relevant environmental policies from a comprehensive perspective.}, url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.3c04041}, author = {Lu Liu and Yu Zhao and Hongyan Zhao and Yifei Wang and Chris P. Nielsen} } @article {1565136, title = {Increased Impact of Aviation on Air Quality and Human Health in China}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology}, year = {2023}, pages = {19575{\textendash}19583}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s civil aviation market has rapidly expanded, becoming the world{\textquoteright}s second-largest. However, the air quality and health impacts caused by its aircraft emissions have been inadequately assessed. Here, we leverage an updated emission inventory of air pollutants with improved temporal and spatial resolution based on hundreds of thousands of flight trajectories and simulate aviation-attributable contributions to ground-level air pollution in China. We find that in 2017, the annual-average aviation-attributed PM2.5\ and O3\ concentrations were 0.4{\textendash}1.5 and 10.6{\textendash}14.5 μg{\textperiodcentered}m{\textendash}3, respectively, suggesting that aviation emissions have become an increasingly important source of ambient air pollution. The contributions attributable to high-altitude emissions (climb/cruise/descent) were comparable to those at low altitudes (landing and takeoff). Aviation-attributed ambient PM2.5\ and O3\ exposures are estimated to have caused about 67,000 deaths in China in 2017, with populous coastal regions in Eastern China suffering the most due to the dense aviation activity. We recommend that industrial and policy stakeholders expedite an agenda of regulating air pollutants harmonized with decarbonization efforts for a more sustainable aviation future.}, url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.3c05821}, author = {Jingran Zhang and Yiliang Jiang and Yunjie Wang and Shaojun Zhang and Ye Wu and Shuxiao Wang and Chris P. Nielsen and Michael B. McElroy and Jiming Hao} } @article {1505911, title = {Large-scale climate patterns offer pre-seasonal hints on the co-occurrence of heat wave and O3 pollution in China}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)}, volume = {120}, year = {2023}, pages = {e2218274120}, abstract = {

Heat waves and air pollution extremes exert compounding effects on human health and food security and may worsen under future climate change. On the basis of reconstructed daily O3\ levels in China and meteorological reanalysis, we found that the interannual variability of the frequency of summertime co-occurrence of heat wave and O3\ pollution in China is regulated mainly by a combination of springtime warming in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, and Ross Sea. These sea surface temperature anomalies impose influences on precipitation, radiation, etc., to modulate the co-occurrence, which were also confirmed with coupled chemistry{\textendash}climate numerical experiments. We thus built a multivariable regression model to predict co-occurrence a season in advance, and correlation coefficient could reach 0.81 (P\ \< 0.01) for the North China Plain. Our results provide useful information for the government to take actions in advance to mitigate damage from these synergistic costressors.

Heat waves and air pollution are two prominent threats, both of which have been reported to cause public health and ecosystem crises, particularly under rapid urbanization and global warming (1,\ 2). Heat waves, defined as consecutive days of excessively high atmosphere-related heat stress (3,\ 4), adversely influence human health by impacting respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Heat waves are linked with high O3\ episodes that harm human health and vegetation (5{\textendash}7). In warm seasons, heat waves and extreme O3\ events often occur simultaneously due to common driving meteorological conditions, i.e., stagnant high-pressure systems that favor accumulation of heat and O3\ precursors (8). Besides, complex chemistry{\textendash}climate feedbacks through biogenic emissions (source) and uptake by plants (sink) could exacerbate co-occurrence of heat wave and O3\ extremes (9). It is imperative to understand driving factors for the co-occurrence of heat and O3\ extremes, as accumulating evidence suggests amplified health outcomes beyond the sum of individual effects (10{\textendash}12). Analitis et\ al. (13) reported that the number of daily deaths during heat wave episodes was 54\% higher on high O3\ days compared with low O3\ days.

Previous studies have linked occurrences of heat waves or O3\ extremes, separately, with large-scale atmospheric circulation or sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (14{\textendash}20). For instance, Zhu et\ al. (17) demonstrated that the frequency and variability of summertime heat waves over North America was closely associated with SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and tropical western Pacific in spring and El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation phase change. Shen and Mickley (21) showed that O3\ concentration in Eastern United States was linked with warm tropical Atlantic SST and cold northeast Pacific SST, as well as positive sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies over central Pacific and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. However, the climate factors modulating the co-occurrence of heat and O3\ extremes at a regional level remain unclear and had only been the subject of limited studies (8,\ 22{\textendash}24).

With roughly one-sixth of the world{\textquoteright}s population and rapid energy-intensive development, China is facing the dual challenge of air pollution and climate change (25,\ 26). Central and Eastern China, especially the North China Plain (NCP), experienced improved PM2.5\ air quality over past years due to the implementation of the most stringent clean air policy, but now suffers from largest increases in summertime O3\ exposure (27). O3\ concentrations in the NCP enhanced at almost twice the average pace across China (28). An amplified upward trend of the joint occurrences of heat and O3\ extremes has been identified in China over 2013 to 2020 (29). Understanding the driving climate factors for its interannual variability would contribute to long-term planning of control of costressors. Characterizing interannual variability also enables prediction which could allow sufficient time for mitigation of the interactive damages from joint exposure (21,\ 30{\textendash}33). Previously, we demonstrated the possibility of seasonal prediction of wintertime aerosol pollution in India (34). Considering the strong linkages between O3\ level and climate patterns, we argue here that it may also be possible to predict co-occurrence of heat waves and O3\ pollution, potentially up to several years in advance, considering the active efforts in developing reliable seasonal (months ahead) and even longer prediction of climate variability (35).

In this study, we aim to identify leading patterns that control the spatiotemporal variability of occurrence frequency (days in a year) of joint heat wave and O3\ pollution events (HWOP). We focus on Central and Eastern China (17.5{\textdegree}N to 47.5{\textdegree}N, 98{\textdegree}E to 125{\textdegree}E), where over 80\% Chinese population reside and co-occurrences of HWOP events are prominent. Climate drivers are identified by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), which decomposes historical spatiotemporal variations of HWOP frequency that inferred with atmospheric reanalysis and reconstructed daily O3\ datasets. Findings from statistical analyses are further supported by numerical model experiments using the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model version 2.1.3 (CESM v2.1.3). Encouraged by the robustness of the identified teleconnections between co-occurrence events and SST anomalies, we further build a regression-based statistical model to predict summertime HWOP a season in advance, improving our capability in the management of these important health and vegetation costressors.

}, url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2218274120$\#$:~:text=On\%20the\%20basis\%20of\%20reconstructed,western\%20Pacific\%20Ocean\%2C\%20western\%20Indian}, author = {Meng Gao and Fan Wang and Yihui Ding and Zhiwei Wu and YangYang Xu and Xiao Lu and Zifa Wang and Gregory R. Carmichael and Michael B. McElroy} } @article {1528381, title = {Mitigating agricultural fires with carrot or stick? Evidence from China}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {165}, year = {2023}, pages = {103173}, abstract = {This paper examines the effects of biomass power plants (BPPs) on farmers{\textquoteright} use of agricultural fires for land clearance in China from 2001 to 2019. We show that the entry of BPPs leads to a significant reduction of agricultural fires by 14\%. Farmers near BPPs display stronger responses, leading to a more significant reduction in straw burning, especially during high agricultural fire seasons. The notable decline in agricultural fires is likely driven by economic incentives provided by BPPs to farmers for collecting crop straw from their land. Additionally, straw-burning bans have limited effectiveness in reducing total agricultural fires, but they appear to reduce straw burning during nighttime, when the monitoring of agricultural fires is easier. We also provide evidence that local air quality has markedly improved, resulting in substantial health benefits that surpass the social benefits of reducing\ carbon emissions.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387823001293}, author = {Jing Cao and Rong Ma} } @article {1498591, title = {Off-design characteristics of energy conversion equipment in integrated energy systems}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {407}, year = {2023}, pages = {136941}, abstract = {

With the increasing penetration of\ variable renewable energy,\ integrated energy systems\ (IES) have become increasingly complex. Unfortunately, the widely used constant efficiency model is too simplified to reflect actual operating conditions. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of off-design characteristics on the operation and configuration of integrated energy systems, both singly and collectively. To this aim, a two-stage optimization framework was applied to optimize the operation and configuration of IES. The off-design characteristics include the electric-thermal correlation of\ gas turbines\ (GTs), the load rate-efficiency correlation of\ gas boilers\ (GBs) and absorption chillers (ACs), and the temperature-efficiency correlation of heat pumps (HPs) and electric chillers (ECs).

When off-design characteristics are considered, the optimal capacities of the energy conversion equipment tend to increase and system costs would increase. For all system equipment, the capacity of the EC increases by 515.4\% and the system cost increases by 7.3\%. Regarding system operation, the effects of off-design characteristics on the operation of the GT and AC are most significant for all energy conversion equipment. The\ electric energy storage\ (EES) and the\ thermal energy storage\ (TES) help to reduce the capacity of the GT and system cost. When off-design characteristics are considered, their effects are magnified.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623010995?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Yu Fu and Haiyang Lin and Biao Feng and Cuiping Ma and Qie Sun and Ronald Wennersten} } @article {1490676, title = {Quantifying an overlooked deciduous-needleleaf carbon sink at the southern margin of the Central-Siberian Permafrost Zone}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences}, year = {2023}, abstract = {

With over 700 million km2\ Siberia is the largest expanse of the northern boreal forest{\textemdash}deciduous-needleleaf larch. Temperatures are increasing across this region, but the consequences to carbon balances are not well understood for larch forests. We present flux measurements from a larch forest near the southern edge of Central-Siberia where permafrost degradation and ecosystem shifts are already observed. Results indicate net carbon exchanges are influenced by the seasonality of permafrost active layers, temperature and humidity, and soil water availability. During periods when surface soils are fully thawed, larch forest is a significant carbon sink. During the spring-thaw and fall-freeze transition, there is a weak signal of carbon uptake at mid-day. Net carbon exchanges are near-zero when the soil is fully frozen from the surface down to the permafrost. We fit an empirical ecosystem functional model to quantify the dependence of larch-forest carbon balance on climatic drivers. The model provides a basis for ecosystem carbon budgets over time and space. Larch differs from boreal evergreens by having higher maximum productivity and lower respiration, leading to an increased carbon sink. Comparison to previous measurements from another northern larch site suggests climate change will result in an increased forest carbon sink if the southern larch subtype replaces the northern subtype. Observations of carbon fluxes in Siberian larch are still too sparse to adequately determine age dependence, inter-annual variability, and spatial heterogeneity though they suggest that boreal larch accounts for a larger fraction of global carbon uptake than has been previously recognized.

Plain Language Summary

Cold, wet soils in boreal forests contain a large amount of carbon. However, warmer temperatures coupled with changes in hydrology could release stored carbon and accelerate its decomposition. The boreal spruce and pine forests in North America and Fennoscandia have been studied extensively, but observations in the Siberian larch forests are limited. Because larch shed their needles in winter their response to changing temperature and moisture may differ from expectations based on evergreen conifers. Our work focuses on a larch forest in northern China that is at the southern edge of the Central-Siberian biome where eco-environmental changes are starting to occur. By studying how the annual growth and carbon balance in this forest respond to variations in weather we will be better able to predict significant changes in the structure and function of the larch ecosystem that could undermine regional ecosystem stability. Larch forest functions differently from evergreen needle-leaf forests and provides the larger carbon sink than had been previously recognized.

Key Points

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006845}, author = {Jialin Liu and Fangyan Cheng and R{\'o}is{\'\i}n Commane and Yi Zhu and Weiwen Ji and Xiuling Man and Chenghe Guan and J. William Munger} } @article {1447759, title = {Road safety performance rating through PSI-PRIDIT: A planning tool for designing policies and identifying best practices for EAS countries}, journal = {Socio-Economic Planning Sciences}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of socio-economic loss in East Asia Summit (EAS) countries. A regular performance rating to monitor progress and calibrate interventions is crucial for road safety improvement, helping to save human lives and reducing economic losses. To this end, we propose a new and easy-to-adapt multi-criteria decision-making method for systematically rating the road safety performance of the EAS countries, the preference selection index with principal component analysis of RIDIT scores (PSI-PRIDIT) (scores of a distribution relative to an identified distribution integral transformation). Using the results from other classical methods as a reference, we rank the EAS countries robustly and place them into three groups over the last decade (2009{\textendash}2019), based on the composite road safety development index. Our findings should be useful for EAS countries to detect underlying problems and identify best practices, as well as provide government officials, policymakers, and practitioners with meaningful guidelines on the adoption of successful road safety measures. Overall, the proposed rating framework should help to strengthen the institutional capacity for road safety management and addresses road safety issues.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038012122002397?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Faan Chen and Yaxin Li and Qianqian Feng and Zehao Dong and Yiming Qian and Yi Yan and Ho, Mun S. and Qianchen Ma and Dashan Zhang and Yuanzhe Jin} } @article {1437922, title = {Breaking the {\textquotedblleft}hard-to-abate{\textquotedblright} bottleneck in China{\textquoteright}s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen}, journal = {Nature Energy}, volume = {7}, year = {2022}, pages = {955{\textendash}965}, abstract = {Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these {\textquoteleft}hard-to-abate{\textquoteright} (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50\% of China{\textquoteright}s heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second, a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of production in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01114-6$\#$citeas}, author = {Xi Yang and Nielsen, Chris P. and Shaojie Song and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1447741, title = {Political signalling and emissions trading schemes in China: Insights from Guangdong Province}, journal = {Energy for Sustainable Development}, volume = {71}, year = {2022}, pages = {307-314}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s approach to environmental regulation relies heavily on campaign-style enforcement and blunt-force regulation. While considered effective in the short run, this approach is often inefficient and generates unintended regulatory outcomes in the longer run. At the same time, China continues to experiment with the use of market-based approaches that are theoretically more efficient and have the potential to facilitate sustained reductions in carbon emissions. Arguably the most high-profile example is the Guangdong\ Emissions Trading Scheme\ (ETS), which was launched in 2013 as a national pilot scheme. We construct a synthetic control of Guangdong and analyse 51,076 party-led newspaper reports to show that while the ETS reduced emissions in the short run, these reductions were systematically associated with political signalling. Notably, emissions reduced substantially upon the announcement of the ETS in 2011 {\textendash} a full two years before the scheme was scheduled to begin {\textendash} before rebounding to near pre-ETS announcement levels by 2017. The presence of an anticipation effect and the systematic association between political signalling and emissions reductions mirrors findings on China{\textquoteright}s more direct approaches to environmental regulation. Our findings suggest that market-based mechanisms in China may not be qualitatively different from more direct forms of environmental regulation.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082622001892?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Xiang, Chen and Terry van Gevelt} } @article {1447745, title = {Satisfaction on self-perceived health of urban residents in Chengdu, China: Gender, age and the built environment}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {14}, year = {2022}, note = {Download the PDF}, pages = {13389}, abstract = {Self-perceived health is an important factor for assessing urban residents{\textquoteright} satisfaction and quality of life. However, few have comprehensively investigated the impact of demographics, lifestyle and health awareness, indoor environment characteristics, and neighborhood features on self-perceived health. To fill this gap, we designed a framework using multivariable regressions to derive odd rations and to analyze the determinants of self-rated health, stratified into different sub-groups divided by gender, age, and neighborhood types. The study area is Chengdu, one of the most populous cities in western China. The results show that: (1) female respondents reported worse health, with household income level and marital status significantly affecting self-rated health; (2) elderly people reported the worst health, while unique factors affected only younger people (18{\textendash}29 years old), such as gender, smoking, and indoor environment characteristics; and (3) different types of neighborhoods influence their residents{\textquoteright} perception of health differently due to historical establishment, current population composition, and housing conditions. Our study provides new observations on neighborhood types, while agreeing with previous studies on the influences of gender and age. We contribute to the field by providing a more complex understanding of the mechanism by which people rate their own health, which is important for understanding the satisfaction of urban residents and the built environment in which they live.}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13389}, author = {Zhichang Cai and Chenghe Guan and An Trinh and Bo Zhang and Zhibin Chen and Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Chris Nielsen} } @article {1428338, title = {Air quality and health co-benefits of China{\textquoteright}s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {13}, year = {2022}, abstract = {

Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030.\ However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been\ assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon\ mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions\ of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 C target\ could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic\ Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 C target, carbon mitigation\ costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of\ $393{\textendash}$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential\ health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result\ from more ambitious climate targets in other countries.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3}, author = {Rong Tang and Jing Zhao and Liu,Yifan and Xin Huang and Zhang, Yanxu and Derong Zhou and Aijun Ding and Chris Nielsen and Wang, Haikun} } @article {1438405, title = {Appraising road safety attainment by CRITIC-ELECTRE-FCM: A policymaking support for Southeast Asia}, journal = {Transport Policy}, volume = {112}, year = {2022}, pages = {104-118}, abstract = {Road traffic crashes have been a leading cause of death in Southeast Asian countries, which greatly harms the development of countries and affects the livelihood of countless families in this region. In this context, a regular review of road safety attainment is needed to understand why road crashes happen and to better guide the ongoing policymaking and implementation of effective countermeasures as well as next-level strategies. This study introduces an easy-to-use, effective, and systematic methodology for multi-criteria decision-making, CRiteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) - ELimination and Et Choice Translating REality (ELECTRE) - Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) (CRITIC-ELECTRE-FCM). Its purpose is to appraise the road safety attainment of 11 countries in Southeast Asia. Accompanied by the robustness of analyses with other widely used methods, these countries are ranked and grouped into several levels regarding their road safety attainment over the past decade (2009{\textendash}2018). The findings provide government officials, policymakers, and any stakeholders of these countries with meaningful information (e.g., what has been done well and what has not) and instructive guidance for future action. Overall, the proposed\ appraisal system\ serves as an efficacious policymaking support for countries in the region to review road safety attainment, develop future strategies and policies, and implement safety management.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.04.014}, author = {Faan Chen and Yilin Zhu and Jiacheng Zu and Jingyang Lyu and Junfeng Yang} } @article {1426126, title = {China{\textquoteright}s flexibility challenge in achieving carbon neutrality by 2060}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {158}, year = {2022}, pages = {112112}, abstract = {China, with a heavy dependence on coal power, has announced a clear goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. Electrification of final energy use and high penetration of renewable energy are essential to achieve this. The resulting growth of intermittent renewables and changes in demand curve profiles require greater flexibility in the power system for real-time balancing {\textendash} greater ability of generators and consumers to ramp up and down. However, the plan and market system with regulated prices makes this challenging. We discuss the options to improve flexibility, including 1) increasing supply-side flexibility, through retrofitting existing power plants to boost their responsiveness; 2) promoting flexibility from power grids, through building an efficient power grid with inter-provincial and inter-regional transmission capacity to balance spatial mismatch, given that China has a vast territory; 3) encouraging demand flexibility, through demand-response measures to enable demand shifting over time and space to address fluctuations in renewable energy generation; and 4) providing flexibility from energy storage. We consider policies to achieve this, in particular, power market reforms to unlock the flexibility potential of these sources. Regulated electricity prices and lack of auxiliary services markets are major obstacles and we discuss how markets in other countries provide lessons in providing incentives for a more flexible system.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032122000417}, author = {Jianglong Li and Ho, Mun S. and Chunping Xie and Nicholas Stern} } @article {1434892, title = {Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {13}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY{\textcent}/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30747-0}, author = {Zhenyu Zhuo and Ershun Du and Zhang, Ning and Chris Nielsen and Lu, Xi and Jinyu Xiao and Jiawei Wu and Kang, Chongqing} } @article {1430271, title = {Decline in bulk deposition of air pollutants in China lags behind reductions in emissions}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, volume = {15}, year = {2022}, pages = {190{\textendash}195}, abstract = {Swift changes in both industrialization and pollution control in China over the past 15 years have created a complex and evolving relationship between emission sources and the depositional sinks of air pollutants. Here, by combining an emissions inventory, an air quality model and a statistical model to estimate bulk deposition (wet plus a part of dry), we present the changes and driving factors of source{\textendash}sink relationships of typical pollutants throughout China between 2005 and 2020. We find that the deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined more slowly than the emissions of their precursors, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, which we attribute, in part, to increased precipitation. In four developed regions of China, enhanced air pollution transport also plays an important role in the slower decline of deposition compared with that of emissions, as has a changing aerosol chemistry in the case of sulfur compounds. Our analysis shows that reducing deposition is not as simple as merely reducing its precursor emissions and suggests that the design of future policies to reduce associated risks may need to vary by region and species, accounting for their evolving interactions over time.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00899-1}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Mengxiao Xi and Zhang, Qiang and Zhaoxin Dong and Mingrui Ma and Kaiyue Zhou and Wen Xu and Xing, Jia and Bo Zheng and Zhang Wen and Xuejun Liu and Nielsen, Chris P. and Liu, Yang and Yuepeng Pan and Zhang, Lei} } @article {1434584, title = {Deep decarbonization of the Indian economy: 2050 prospects for wind, solar, and green hydrogen}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {25}, year = {2022}, pages = {104399}, abstract = {The paper explores options for a 2050 carbon free energy future for India. Onshore wind and solar sources are projected as the dominant primary contributions to this objective. The analysis envisages an important role for so-called green hydrogen produced by electrolysis fueled by these carbon free energy sources. This hydrogen source can be used to accommodate for the intrinsic variability of wind and solar complementing opportunities for storage of power by batteries and pumped hydro. The green source of hydrogen can be used also to supplant current industrial uses of gray hydrogen produced in the Indian context largely from natural gas with important related emissions of CO2. The paper explores further options for use of green hydrogen to lower emissions from otherwise difficult to abate sectors of both industry and transport. The analysis is applied to identify the least cost options to meet India{\textquoteright}s zero carbon future.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004222006708}, author = {Shaojie Song and Lin, Haiyang and Sherman, Peter and Xi Yang and Shi Chen and Lu, Xi and Tianguang Lu and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1425461, title = {Examining socio-spatial differentiation under housing reform and its implications for mobility in urban China}, journal = {Habitat International}, volume = {119}, year = {2022}, pages = {102498}, abstract = {Housing reform in socialist China has incurred considerable restructuring and transformation of urban space and society. Yet its specific socio-spatial outcomes have not been fully investigated from the perspective of housing type at the meso- and micro-levels. This study attempts to fill the gap by examining the nature and magnitude of the consequences of housing reform and the corresponding effects on mobility. Specifically, based on census data and a mobility survey, this paper combines statistical breakdowns and structural equation modeling to capture the socio-spatial differentiation of urban structure resulting from housing reform and its influences on individual vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) and transportation walking. The results reveal that: (1) different types of housing tend to feature internally homogeneous populations in terms of socio-economic composition and socio-psychological condition, with pronounced\ social stratification; (2) residents in different types of housing display dramatically different travel styles, with substantial mobility inequities; (3) social differentiation appears to have spatial determinants; in particular spatial segregation contributes to increasing social exclusion; (4) the effects of spatial and social characteristics on mobility are led by housing type; and (5) individual mobility patterns are shaped by the joint influences of spatial and social dimensions of housing differentiation. The findings contribute to further understanding of socio-spatial differentiation in countries with a transitional housing market, suggesting that the design of land-use policies should recognize their social effects and that urban mobility planning practices should deliver sustainability that serves a diverse population, including in particular disadvantaged groups in public and replacement housing. This study serves as a mirror to observe the urban transition compared to other\ political economies\ and adds additional richness and diversity to the theoretical debates on the issue of socio-spatial differentiation and empirical evidence on residential and mobility inequities across global contexts.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197397521001879?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Faan Chen and Nielsen, Chris P. and Jiaorong Wu and Xiaohong Chen} } @article {1445605, title = {Exploring the causal effects of the built environment on travel behavior: A unique randomized experiment in Shanghai}, journal = {Transportation}, year = {2022}, pages = {1-31}, abstract = {Experimental designs have been recognized as the gold standard for establishing causal mechanisms. However, the application of such designs is complicated by factors such as excessive costs, time consumption, ethical concerns, and political impossibility. Nevertheless, the Chinese government{\textquoteright}s replacement housing efforts provide a unique randomized experiment for exploring the causal effects of the built environment on travel behavior. Accordingly, based on a large-scale survey on travel patterns under an experimental design in Shanghai, this study employs a two-step modeling approach, involving logit and Tobit models, to identify the built environment{\textquoteright}s effects on auto ownership and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). We found that transit service improvements play a stronger role in reducing auto-drive than compact and diverse land-use characteristics. Increasing residential and employment density, as well as land-use mix, discourages car ownership, which in turn reduces VKT, but with lower elasticities than transportation system variables. The findings provide additional evidence and referential estimate for how land-use and transport strategies and policies designed to create a compact, mixed-use, and highly accessible built environment can be used in reducing auto driving. This study expands the VKT reduction elasticities{\textquoteright} database regarding the built environment across global spatial contexts, serving as a model for similar studies elsewhere in the world.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-022-10325-5}, author = {Faan Chen and Adriano Borges Costa} } @article {1433382, title = {Impacts of large-scale deployment of mountainous wind farms on wintertime regional air quality in the Beijing-Tian-Hebei area}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {278}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The development of wind power plays an essential role in achieving China{\textquoteright}s carbon neutrality goals and air quality standards. A large number of studies have addressed the benefits of substituting fossil fuels with wind power on climate and air quality (defined as indirect impact) by macro-scale methodology. In recent years, more and more researchers have discussed its impacts on the general\ atmospheric circulation\ and air pollution dispersion (defined as direct impact) by parameterizing wind energy extraction in meso-micro scale models. However, the comprehensive investigation (considering both direct and indirect impacts) of the utilization of wind power on atmosphere environmental impacts remains vacant. Our study first evaluated both the direct and indirect impacts of wind power on air quality through an integrated methodological framework by using WRF-CMAQ system. The present analysis took wind farms located in Zhangjiakou to explore their impacts on air quality in winter, particularly over the downwind Beijing municipal area in the North China Plain. Results indicated that the deployment of wind power leads to spatially mixed direct impacts on PM2.5\ concentrations in Beijing with a monthly net increase of 0.067\ μg/m3\ (0.08\%) relative to the regional average. Contrarily, the substitution of coal-burning with wind power in rural household heating would result in notable indirect benefits to monthly PM2.5\ concentrations in Beijing, specifically, reducing emissions of CO2\ and conventional\ air pollutants\ by 64\% in rural heating sector. The combined impacts of wind power displayed regional differences: in the wintertime (January), Zhangjiakou PM2.5\ concentrations increased (+0.147\ μg/m3) whereas, decreases are achieved (-5.642\ μg/m3) in Beijing. Therefore, to support the large-scale deployment of wind power, future energy policies should take comprehensive account of the diverse environmental impacts, including both the indirect benefits of fossil energy substitution and the potential direct atmospheric effects on regional air quality.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S135223102200139X?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Ziwen Ruan and Lu, Xi and Wang, Shuxiao and Xing, Jia and Wei Wang and Chen, Dan and Nielsen, Chris P. and Yong Luo and He, Kebin and Hao, Jiming} } @article {1434581, title = {Improved air quality in China can enhance solar power performance and accelerate carbon neutrality targets}, journal = {One Earth}, volume = {5}, year = {2022}, pages = {550-562}, abstract = {China forecasts that a 14-fold increase in photovoltaic installations is needed to meet 2060 carbon-neutrality targets. In light of the fact that air pollution impairs photovoltaic performance,\ pollution control\ could reduce the installation requirement, but research has not yet taken into account the coeval impact of unfavorable meteorological conditions, which also impair performance. Here, we employ a coupled model to determine the impact of air-pollution control policies on China{\textquoteright}s photovoltaic power output in the presence of varying meteorological conditions between 1995 and 2019. We find that the benefits of air-pollution control introduced in 2004 were only partially offset by unfavorable meteorological conditions (primarily in Central and South China) and resulted in solar-power performance improvement of 0.9\%/decade from 2008 onward. Further analysis shows that solar-power output in 2020 was 1.7\% higher thanks to air-pollution control and that more stringent air-quality targets could reduce the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity needed to meet the 2060 carbon-neutrality target.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332222002032}, author = {Shi Chen and Lu, Xi and Nielsen, Chris P. and Guannan Geng and McElroy, Michael B. and Wang, Shuxiao and Hao, Jiming} } @article {1425115, title = {Indirect cost of renewable energy: Insights from dispatching}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {105}, year = {2022}, note = {View the PDF}, pages = {105778}, abstract = {The rapidly falling costs of renewable energy has made them the focus of efforts in making a low-carbon transition. However, when cheap large-scale energy storage is not available, the variability of renewables implies that fossil-based technologies have to ramp up-and-down frequently to provide flexibility for matching electricity demand and supply. Here we provide a study on the indirect cost of renewable energy due to thermal efficiency loss of coal plants with such ramping requirements. Using monthly panel data for China, we show that higher renewable share is associated with fewer operating hours of coal-fired units (COHOUR). We use an\ instrumental variable\ depending on natural river flows to identify the causal effect of reduced\ COHOURs\ in raising the heat rate of coal-fired units. Specifically, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of renewables leads to a 6.4\ h reduction per month, and a reduction of one\ COHOUR\ results in a 0.09 gce/kWh increase of gross heat rate (+0.03\%). We estimate that the thermal efficiency loss indicates 4.77 billion US dollars of indirect cost of renewables in 2019, or 9.44 billion if we include the social cost of\ carbon emissions. These results indicate that we should consider the indirect impacts of renewables on total coal use and the importance of increasing flexibility of the system.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321006198?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Jianglong Li and Ho, Mun S.} } @article {1440114, title = {Measuring road safety achievement based on EWM-GRA-SVD: A decision-making support system for APEC countries}, journal = {Knowledge-Based Systems}, volume = {25}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Measuring road safety achievement through persistent monitoring of subjects, such that they can learn from one another, has been widely encouraged by various countries to support policymaking. In recent decades, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries have been working together to improve road safety, considering it an important constituent and reflection of their economic development. However, no uniform road safety measurement framework is currently available across the APEC. To this end, the current study develops a practical and efficient methodology, namely, the entropy weight method (EWM) {\textendash} grey relational analysis (GRA) {\textendash}\ singular value decomposition\ (SVD) (EWM-GRA-SVD), providing government officials and policymakers with a replicable framework for reporting the road safety achievement of countries. The EWM is employed to obtain the weights of the set of indicators, as the weighting inputs of GRA, to form a composite score for ranking, where the SVD is embedded in the GRA for grouping by means of extracting\ singular values. Using the proposed model, best-performing and underperforming countries are distinguished, whereby each country could learn from others within their assigned group based on an overview of achievements and progress in road safety over the past decade. The results enable decision-makers and policymakers to develop action plans and consider necessary interventions promptly and effectively.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2022.109373}, author = {Faan Chen and Lin Shi and Yaxin Li and Qilin Wang and Haosen Sun and Xinyu Tang and Jiacheng Zu and Zhenwei Sun} } @article {1415970, title = {Optimal planning of intra-city public charging stations}, journal = {Energy}, volume = {238}, year = {2022}, pages = {121948}, abstract = {Intra-city Public Charging Stations (PCSs) play a crucial role in promoting the mass deployment of Electric Vehicles (EVs). To motivate the investment on PCSs, this work proposes a novel framework to find the optimal location and size of PCSs, which can maximize the benefit of the investment. The impacts of charging behaviors and\ urban land uses\ on the income of PCSs are taken into account. An agent-based trip chain model is used to represent the travel and charging patterns of EV owners. A cell-based geographic partition method based on\ Geographic Information System\ is employed to reflect the influence of land use on the dynamic and stochastic nature of EV charging behaviors. Based on the distributed charging demand, the optimal location and size of PCSs are determined by mixed-integer linear programming. V{\"a}ster{\r a}s, a Swedish city, is used as a case study to demonstrate the model{\textquoteright}s effectiveness. It is found that the charging demand served by a PCS is critical to its\ profitability, which is greatly affected by the charging behavior of drivers, the location and the service range of PCS. Moreover, charging price is another significant factor impacting profitability, and consequently the competitiveness of slow and fast PCSs.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221021964?via\%3Dihub$\#$!}, author = {Lin, Haiyang and Caiyun Bian and Wang, Yu and Hailong Li and Sun, Qie and Fredrik Wallen} } @article {1438407, title = {Overseeing road safety progress using CV-PROMETHEE II-JSS: A case study in the EU context}, journal = {Expert Systems with Applications}, volume = {195}, year = {2022}, pages = {116623}, abstract = {Overseeing road safety progress at regular intervals has and will continue to be advocated as the most promising means to achieve continuous safety improvement. Thus, a scientific approach that can be capable of doing so is disparately required. This study aims to propose a brand-new and efficient methodology for overseeing overall road safety progress at the regional level. To this end, CV-PROMETHEE II-JSS, which seamlessly incorporates Coefficient of Variation (CV), Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), and Joint Singular value decomposition and Semi-discrete decomposition (JSS) in an integrative manner, is developed. Specifically, this is designed to combine the retrospective examination and benchmarking analysis in a comprehensive and systematic framework. Based on the proposed methodology, the road safety development of the European Union (EU) Member States is examined over the past decade (2010{\textendash}2020), whilst simultaneously benchmarking safety performance looking forward to the next decade (2020{\textendash}2030). As a result, a detailed picture of changes in road safety for each country is quantitatively depicted, providing policymakers with deeper insights into how progress was achieved. The appropriate benchmarks are also scientifically identified for each laggard member to use as a meaningful reference, which largely avoids the need for reinventing the wheel and trial and error approaches. This study provides the EU27\ +\ 3 countries with a practical paradigm to perform both diagnostics and treatment to improve overall road safety levels in an effective way; supporting the government officials and policymakers in the charting of future strategic directions and intervention priorities, and helping them define ways to accelerate action on proven strategies and policies for better lives. Moreover, this study enriches the existing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) mechanism by introducing the CV-PROMETHEE II-JSS, and implies its feasibility and effectiveness in future MCDM cases involving safety-related issues.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.116623}, author = {Jiacheng Zu and Zesheng Peng and Faan Chen} } @article {1436695, title = {Projected global demand for air conditioning associated with extreme heat and implications for electricity grids in poorer countries}, journal = {Energy and Buildings}, volume = {268}, year = {2022}, pages = {112198}, abstract = {

Human-induced climate change will increase surface temperatures globally over the next several decades. Climate models project that global mean surface temperature could increase by over 2oC by 2050 relative to the preindustrial period, with even greater changes at the regional level. These temperature changes have clear and pertinent implications for extremes, and consequentially, heat-induced health issues for people living in particularly hot climates. Here, we study future projections in the demand for AC globally in the 2050s associated with extreme heat events. To do this, we employ an ensemble of CMIP6 models under high and low emissions scenarios. We find that the increasing frequency of extreme temperatures will cause a significant portion of the global population to be exposed to conditions that require cooling. This issue will be especially pervasive in poor countries such as India and Indonesia, which at present lack the AC units required to handle rapidly growing populations and increased frequencies of extreme temperatures. The electricity needed for cooling in these countries could reach as high as 75\% of the current total annual electricity demand, which could place serious strain on the electricity grid infrastructure during peak cooling hours. We conclude that demand for cooling in the future will pose a significant challenge for poorer countries whose people will require AC units to handle extreme temperatures. In some countries, the grid infrastructure is insufficient at present to meet projected AC demands, and this need must be considered in future power systems planning.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778822003693}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Lin, Haiyang and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1417377, title = {Residential building materials: An important source of ambient formaldehyde in mainland China}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {158}, year = {2022}, abstract = {This study investigates the contribution of formaldehyde from residential building materials to ambient air in mainland China. Based on 265 indoor field tests in 9 provinces, we estimate that indoor residential sources are responsible for 6.66\% of the total anthropogenic formaldehyde in China{\textquoteright}s ambient air (range for 31 provinces: 1.88{\textendash}18.79\%). Residential building materials rank 6th among 81 anthropogenic sources (range: 2nd{\textendash}10th for 31 provinces). Emission intensities show large spatial variability between and within regions due to different residential densities, emission characteristics of building materials, and indoor thermal conditions. Our findings indicate that formaldehyde from the indoor environment is a significant source of ambient formaldehyde, especially in urban areas. This study will help to more accurately evaluate exposure to ambient formaldehyde and its related pollutants, and will assist in formulating policies to protect air quality and public health.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021005341}, author = {Shaodan Huang and Shaojie Song and Nielsen, Chris P. and Yuqiang Zhang and Jianyin Xiong and Louise B. Weschler and Shaodong Xie and Jing Li} } @article {1439042, title = {State rhetoric, nationalism and public opinion in China}, journal = {International Affairs}, volume = {98}, year = {2022}, pages = {1327-1346}, abstract = {The Chinese government is fond of invoking the {\textquoteleft}hurt feelings of 1.4 billion Chinese citizens{\textquoteright} to protest foreign actions and policies. However, this rhetoric might be nothing more than propaganda and attempts to leverage nationalist sentiment. How much do citizens in China actually care about issues completely unrelated to their daily livelihoods? To answer this, the study employs a representative survey to investigate the extent to which rhetoric about {\textquoteleft}hurt feelings{\textquoteright} is consistent with public opinion on four contemporary socio-political disputes involving the NBA, Marriott International, Mercedes-Benz and the city of Prague. Across the scenarios, we found that the Chinese government did not exaggerate the displeasure of audiences{\textemdash}citizens are aware of the cases, were indeed upset by them and advocated for retaliatory measures that were surprisingly more forceful than those adopted in reality. These emotions were largely driven by nationalistic sentiment rather than personal experiences or encounters, suggesting the success of state propaganda in steering the public opinion toward outcomes favourable to the state. These findings support recent studies highlighting the peculiar case of rising nationalism in China, and have important implications for the impact of public opinion on Chinese policymaking.}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/98/4/1327/6628401?login=true}, author = {Neo, Ric and Xiang, Chen} } @article {1442105, title = {Technological devices to help older people beyond the home: An inventory and assessment focusing on the neighborhood and city scales}, journal = {Cities \& Health}, year = {2022}, abstract = {What existing technological devices are available to support older people in their neighborhood and city environments as they age? Using an inventory of available and emerging technological devices, this paper finds many devices address older people{\textquoteright}s mobility and safety as pedestrians or in motorized vehicles. Fewer deal directly with physical and mental health, social connections, or other everyday activities. Emerging types of devices to address these less-common areas include robots (for delivery services and physical support), activity monitors, outdoor audio, smart streetlights, and furniture. These technologies already form a complex and dynamic landscape for older people to interact with over time. For technological devices to better help older people thrive in outdoor urban spaces, however, more work needs to be done so they can facilitate social connectedness and target the diversity of older people including those with cognitive impairments and with low incomes. Many also rely on the infrastructure of streets and sidewalks which may not be equitably distributed.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/23748834.2022.2094884}, author = {Lyu, Yingying and Ann Forsyth} } @article {1415774, title = {Combined solar power and storage as cost-competitive and grid-compatible supply for China{\textquoteright}s future carbon-neutral electricity system}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {118}, year = {2021}, note = {Lu et al. is the cover article of this October issue of PNAS. Read the Research Brief.}, pages = {e2103471118}, abstract = {

As the world{\textquoteright}s largest CO2\ emitter, China{\textquoteright}s ability to decarbonize its energy system strongly affects the prospect of achieving the 1.5 {\textdegree}C limit in global, average surface-temperature rise. Understanding technically feasible, cost-competitive, and grid-compatible solar photovoltaic (PV) power potentials spatiotemporally is critical for China{\textquoteright}s future energy pathway. This study develops an integrated model to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of the technology-economic-grid PV potentials in China during 2020 to 2060 under the assumption of continued cost degression in line with the trends of the past decade. The model considers the spatialized technical constraints, up-to-date economic parameters, and dynamic hourly interactions with the power grid. In contrast to the PV production of 0.26 PWh in 2020, results suggest that China{\textquoteright}s technical potential will increase from 99.2 PWh in 2020 to 146.1 PWh in 2060 along with technical advances, and the national average power price could decrease from 4.9 to 0.4 US cents/kWh during the same period. About 78.6\% (79.7 PWh) of China{\textquoteright}s technical potential will realize price parity to coal-fired power in 2021, with price parity achieved nationwide by 2023. The cost advantage of solar PV allows for coupling with storage to generate cost-competitive and grid-compatible electricity. The combined systems potentially could supply 7.2 PWh of grid-compatible electricity in 2060 to meet 43.2\% of the country{\textquoteright}s electricity demand at a price below 2.5 US cents/kWh. The findings highlight a crucial energy transition point, not only for China but for other countries, at which combined solar power and storage systems become a cheaper alternative to coal-fired electricity and a more grid-compatible option.

}, url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/118/42/e2103471118}, author = {Lu, Xi and Shi Chen and Nielsen, Chris P. and Chongyu Zhang and Jiacong Li and Xu He and Wu, Ye and Wang, Shuxiao and Feng Song and Chu Wei and He, Kebin and Michael P. McElroy and Hao, Jiming} } @article {1417932, title = {Pathway toward carbon-neutral electrical systems in China by mid-century with negative CO2 abatement costs informed by high-resolution modeling}, journal = {Joule}, volume = {5}, year = {2021}, note = {Read the Research Brief}, pages = {2715-2741}, abstract = {China, the largest global CO2\ emitter, recently announced ambitious targets for carbon neutrality by 2060. Its technical and economic feasibility is unclear given severe renewable integration barriers. Here, we developed a cross-sector, high-resolution assessment model to quantify optimal energy structures on provincial bases for different years. Hourly power system simulations for all provinces for a full year are incorporated on the basis of comprehensive grid data to quantify the renewable balancing costs. Results indicate that the conventional strategy of employing local wind, solar, and storage to realize 80\% renewable penetration by 2050 would incur a formidable decarbonization cost of $27/ton despite lower levelized costs for renewables. Coordinated deployment of renewables, ultra-high-voltage transmissions, storages, Power-to-gas and slow-charging electric vehicles can reduce this carbon abatement cost to as low as $-25/ton. Were remaining emissions removed by\ carbon capture and sequestration\ technologies, achieving carbon neutrality could be not only feasible but also cost-competitive post 2050.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435121004505?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Chen, Xinyu and Yaxing Liu and Qin Wang and Jiajun Lv and Wen, Jinyu and Xia Chen and Kang, Chongqing and Shijie Cheng and Michael McElroy} } @article {1418765, title = {Planning, aging, and loneliness: Reviewing evidence about built environment effects}, journal = {Journal of Planning Literature}, year = {2021}, note = {Download PDF}, abstract = {Large numbers of people in many countries report being lonely with rates highest among the very old. Does the built environment affect loneliness among older people and if so, how? Using a scoping review, we examined associations between loneliness and built environments at the block, neighborhood, and city scales. The (1) neighborhood environment has received most attention. Research has also examined (2) urban contexts, (3) housing, and (4) transportation access. Findings are mixed with the stronger evidence that local resources, walkability, overall environment quality, housing options, and nearby transportation alternatives can help combat loneliness.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/08854122211035131}, author = {Lyu, Yingying and Ann Forsyth} } @article {1419810, title = {Production of hydrogen from offshore wind in China and cost-competitive supply to Japan}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {12}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The Japanese government has announced a commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It envisages an important role for hydrogen in the nation{\textquoteright}s future energy economy. This paper explores the possibility that a significant source for this hydrogen could be produced by electrolysis fueled by power generated from offshore wind in China. Hydrogen could be delivered to Japan either as liquid, or bound to a chemical carrier such as toluene, or as a component of ammonia. The paper presents an analysis of factors determining the ultimate cost for this hydrogen, including expenses for production, storage, conversion, transport, and treatment at the destination. It concludes that the Chinese source could be delivered at a volume and cost consistent with Japan{\textquoteright}s idealized future projections.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27214-7}, author = {Shaojie Song and Lin, Haiyang and Sherman, Peter and Xi Yang and Nielsen, Chris P. and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1418818, title = {Projected changes in seasonal and extreme summertime temperature and precipitation in India in response to COVID-19 recovery emissions scenarios}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, year = {2021}, pages = {114025}, abstract = {Fossil fuel and aerosol emissions have played important roles on climate over the Indian subcontinent over the last century. As the world transitions toward decarbonization in the next few decades, emissions pathways could have major impacts on India{\textquoteright}s climate and people. Pathways for future emissions are highly uncertain, particularly at present as countries recover from COVID-19. This paper explores a multimodel ensemble of Earth system models leveraging potential global emissions pathways following COVID-19 and the consequences for India{\textquoteright}s summertime (June-July-August-September) climate in the near- and long-term. We investigate specifically scenarios which envisage a fossil-based recovery, a strong renewable-based recovery and a moderate scenario in between the two. We find that near-term climate changes are dominated by natural climate variability, and thus likely independent of the emissions pathway. By 2050, pathway-induced spatial patterns in the seasonally-aggregated precipitation become clearer with a drying in the fossil-based scenario and wetting in the strong renewable scenario. Additionally, extreme temperature and precipitation events in India are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency regardless of the emissions scenario, though the spatial patterns of these changes as well as the extent of the change are pathway dependent. This study provides an important discussion on the impacts of emissions recover pathways following COVID-19 on India, a nation which is likely to be particularly susceptible to climate change over the coming decades.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1b}, author = {Jonathan D{\textquoteright}Souza and Felix Prasanna and Luna-Nefeli Valayannopoulos-Akrivou and Peter John Sherman and Elise Penn and Shaojie Song and Alexander Archibald and Michael B McElroy} } @article {1418055, title = {Effects of uncertainties on the capacity and operation of an integrated energy system}, journal = {Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments}, volume = {48}, year = {2021}, pages = {101625}, abstract = {

Uncertainty is a common and critical problem for planning the capacity and operation of integrated energy systems (IESs). This study evaluates the effects of uncertainties on the capacity and operation of an IES. To this aim, system planning and operation with uncertainties are optimized by a two-stage stochastic programming model and compared with a referencing deterministic case. Specifically, the uncertainties of photovoltaic (PV) generation and energy demand are investigated.

Regarding system capacity, a larger energy storage capacity is needed to accommodate a higher uncertainty. The superimposed uncertainties have a higher effect on system capacity than the sum of the effect of each uncertainty. The uncertainty of energy demand has a higher impact than the uncertainty of PV generation.

Regarding system operation, the increase in operation cost is smaller than the increase in investment cost and total cost. In addition, the average flexibility provided by the energy storage increases with uncertainty and uncertainties affect the change rate for power charging/discharging of the electric energy storage. Regarding the effect on the grid, the uncertainties increase not only the magnitude of ramping-rate, but also the frequency of power-dispatch.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2213138821006391?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Yu Fu and Lin, Haiyang and Cuiping Ma and Bo Sun and Hailong Li and Sun, Qie and Wennersten, Ronald} } @article {1399000, title = {Air quality and health benefits from ultra-low emission control policy indicated by continuous emission monitoring: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta region, China}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {21}, year = {2021}, pages = {6411{\textendash}6430}, abstract = {To evaluate the improved emission estimates from online monitoring, we applied the Models-3/CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) system to simulate the air quality of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region using two emission inventories with and without incorporated data from continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMSs) at coal-fired power plants (cases\ 1 and 2, respectively). The normalized mean biases (NMBs) between the observed and simulated hourly concentrations of SO2, NO2, O3, and PM2.5in case\ 2 were-3.1 \%, 56.3 \%,-19.5 \%, and-1.4 \%, all smaller in absolute value than those in case\ 1 at 8.2 \%, 68.9 \%,-24.6 \%, and 7.6 \%, respectively. The results indicate that incorporation of CEMS data in the emission inventory reduced the biases between simulation and observation and could better reflect the actual sources of regional air pollution. Based on the CEMS data, the air quality changes and corresponding health impacts were quantified for different implementation levels of China{\textquoteright}s recent {\textquotedblleft}ultra-low{\textquotedblright} emission policy. If the coal-fired power sector met the requirement alone (case\ 3), the differences in the simulated monthly SO2, NO2, O3, and PM2.5concentrations compared to those of case\ 2, our base case for policy comparisons, would be less than 7 \% for all pollutants. The result implies a minor benefit of ultra-low emission control if implemented in the power sector alone, which is attributed to its limited contribution to the total emissions in the YRD after years of pollution control (11 \%, 7 \%, and 2 \% of SO2, NOX, and primary particle matter (PM) in case\ 2, respectively). If the ultra-low emission policy was enacted at both power plants and selected industrial sources including boilers, cement, and iron and steel factories (case\ 4), the simulated SO2, NO2, and PM2.5concentrations compared to the base case would be 33 \%{\textendash}64 \%, 16 \%{\textendash}23 \%, and 6 \%{\textendash}22 \% lower, respectively, depending on the month (January, April, July, and October 2015). Combining CMAQ and the Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model, we further estimated that 305 deaths and 8744\ years of life loss (YLL) attributable to PM2.5exposure could be avoided with the implementation of the ultra-low emission policy in the power sector in the YRD region. The analogous values would be much higher, at 10 651 deaths and 316 562 YLL avoided, if both power and industrial sectors met the ultra-low emission limits. In order to improve regional airquality and to reduce human health risk effectively, coordinated control of multiple sources should be implemented, and the ultra-low emission policy should be substantially expanded to major emission sources in industries other than the power industry.}, url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/6411/2021/}, author = {Yan Zhang and Zhao, Yu and Meng Gao and Xin Bo and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1393734, title = {Attitudes, perceptions, and walking behavior in a Chinese city}, journal = {Journal of Transport \& Health}, volume = {21}, year = {2021}, pages = {101047}, abstract = {

Introduction

An increasing number of walking studies discussed the relationship of walking with attitudes and perceptions. However, the findings were not consistent, and few studies examined the relationship between walking and attitudes to overall mobility and multiple modes. In this paper, we contribute to the debates by exploring the relationship between walking for transport and broad attitudes to urban mobility and transport modes.

Methods

Using a clustered random sample survey conducted in a second-tier city in China (N=1,048), we hypothesized that people with different attitudes have different amounts of walking for transport. Data analysis methods involved descriptive statistics, t-tests, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), hierarchical logistic models, and hierarchical linear models.

Results

Positive attitudes and perceptions regarding multiple transport modes and related environments were associated with some walking for transport. T-tests indicated that those with different attitudes walked different amounts. Regression models showed that associations between attitudes and odds of people walking varied between genders. Males who perceived bus frequency was not a problem were more likely to walk. Females tended to walk when viewing transportation in the city as convenient. Both findings contribute to the understanding that positive perceptions of overall mobility in the city were associated with higher odds of walking. Meanwhile, among those who did walk, those with positive attitudes towards pedestrian safety crossing streets and those perceiving traffic jams as a problem in their daily trips spent more time walking.

Conclusion

This paper concludes that positive broad attitudes and perceptions of overall mobility and all transport modes are related to more walking activities. A better understanding of such relationships can provide a reference point for urban policies aiming at promoting walking for transport.

}, url = {https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S2214-1405(21)00077-3}, author = {Lyu, Yingying and Ann Forsyth} } @article {1394301, title = {Beyond big versus small: assessing spatial variation of urban neighborhood block structures in high-density cities}, journal = {Socio-Ecological Practice Research}, volume = {321}, year = {2021}, pages = {37{\textendash}53}, abstract = {A striking feature of urban formation has been the deployment of mega-blocks, often on the order of sixteen hectares or more. On the other hand, recent urban policies give strong suggestions for smaller and finer-grained neighborhood block and grid arrangements. This paper explores the transformation of urban block structures in high-density cities beyond spatial conditions of big versus small blocks by emphasizing {\textquotedblleft}place{\textquotedblright} making through the degree of spatial diversity and flexibility. Using spatial indices of urban block arrangements, road network efficiencies and gradients of transit network accessibility, the assessment on urban neighborhood block structure is applied to territories of central core, suburban and peripheral development in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen at multiple spatial scales. The results show that the overall efficiency and flexibility of urban block structures becomes more a matter of a narrowing of the range of differing block sizes among the three territories and a concomitant higher potential capacity for adaptation to a broader range of development options. Beyond the Chinese context, in high-density cities across the globe, policies on place making should adopt a multi-scale spatial analysis strategy to measure the configuration of the overall urban block structure and guide the transformation of the city.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s42532-021-00074-7}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Peter G. Rowe} } @article {1380522, title = {Built environment and self-rated health: comparing young, middle-aged, and older people in Chengdu, China}, journal = {Health Environments Research \& Design Journal}, volume = {144}, year = {2021}, pages = {229-246}, abstract = {

Objectives: This paper explores how the building-scale built environment is associated with self-rated health, examining differences in this association among younger, middle-aged, and older age groups. Features examined included building type, building condition, and sidewalk presence in front of dwellings.
Background: Understanding how the relationships between built environments and health vary across age groups helps to build a healthy environment for all. However, most studies have concentrated on the neighborhood or indoor environment, rather than whole buildings, and few have compared age groups.
Methods: This study analyzed survey data from 1,019 adults living in 40 neighborhoods in Chengdu, China, recruited through a clustered random sampling approach. It used a Bayesian logistic mixed effects model with interaction terms between age group indicators and other variables.
Results: Significant differences exist in the relationships of self-rated health with some environmental and other indicators among age groups. For older people, living in multi-floor buildings, having a household smoker, and undertaking fewer hours of weekly exercise were associated with lower odds of reporting good, very good, or excellent health. These relationships were not identified among middle-aged and younger people. More education was associated with higher odds of reporting better health among older and middle-aged groups.
Conclusions: Older people experience more health-related challenges compared to middle-aged and younger people. However, among the examined built environmental factors, building type was the only significant factor related to self-rated health among older people. To promote health among older people, this study recommends adding elevators in the multi-floor buildings.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1937586720982566}, author = {Lyu, Yingying and Ann Forsyth and Steven Worthington} } @article {1393102, title = {Co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and health till 2030 in China}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {152}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Facing the dual challenges of climate change and air pollution, China has made great efforts to explore the co-control strategies for the both. We assessed the benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and human health, with an integrated framework combining an energy-economic model, an air quality model and a concentration{\textendash}response model. With a base year 2015, seven combined scenarios were developed for 2030 based on three energy scenarios and three end-of-pipe control ones. Policy-specific benefits were then evaluated, indicated by the reduced emissions, surface concentrations of major pollutants, and premature deaths between scenarios. Compared to the 2030 baseline scenario, the nationwide PM2.5- and O3-related mortality was expected to decline 23\% or 289 (95\% confidence interval: 220{\textendash}360) thousand in the most stringent scenario, and three quarters of the avoided deaths were attributed to the end-of-pipe control measures.\ Provinces\ in heavily polluted and densely populated regions would benefit more from carbon and pollution control strategies. The population fractions with PM2.5\ exposure under the national air quality standard (35\ μg/m3) and WHO guideline (10\ μg/m3) would be doubled from 2015 to 2030 (the most stringent scenario), while still very few people would live in areas with the WHO guideline achieved for O3\ (100\ μg/m3). Increased health impact of O3\ suggested a great significance of joint control of PM2.5\ and O3\ in future policy-making.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021001070}, author = {Yang, Jinzhao and Zhao, Yu and Cao, Jing and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1401813, title = {Disentangling the impacts of the built environment and self-selection on travel behavior: An empirical study in the context of different housing types}, journal = {Cities}, volume = {116}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Due to spatial heterogeneity worldwide, results from studies examining the effect of residential self-selection on travel behavior vary substantially. As a result of housing reform, the unique housing allocation system in China is a prime example of a context where the self-selection effect may conflict with international knowledge. Using a sample of 3836 residents, whom are living in Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and non-TOD neighborhoods in Shanghai, this study untangles the effects that the built environment and residential self-selection have on travel behavior, in the context of diversified housing types in urban China. Specifically, this paper employs propensity score matching (PSM) to quantitate the relative importance of the built environment\ itself, verses residential self-selection, in influencing travel behavior for each of the housing types. The results show that the residential self-selection effect in the four types of housing (work-unit, commodity, public, and replacement) accounts for 15.2\%, 30.7\%, 18.5\%, and 5.9\% of the total impact on vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), respectively. These findings expand the international database of point estimates in the relative contribution of self-selection toward the impact on travel behavior across global contexts, providing a comprehensive framework for similar studies on self-selection in other parts of the world.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103285}, author = {Faan Chen and Jiaorong Wu and Xiaohong Chen and Chris Nielsen} } @article {1397546, title = {Economic and technological feasibility of using power-to-hydrogen technology under higher wind penetration in China}, journal = {Renewable Energy}, volume = {173}, year = {2021}, note = {Read the Research Brief}, pages = {569-580}, abstract = {Hydrogen can play a key role in facilitating the transition to a future deeply decarbonized energy system and can help accommodate higher penetrations of renewables in the power system. Arguments to justify this conclusion are supported by an analysis based on real-world data from China{\textquoteright}s Western Inner Mongolia (WIM). The economic feasibility and decarbonization potential of renewable-based hydrogen production are discussed through an integrated power-hydrogen-emission analytical framework. The framework combines a high-resolution wind resource analysis with hourly simulation for the operation of power systems and hydrogen production considering technical and economic specifications on selection of three different types of electrolyzers and two operating modes. The results indicate that using wind power to produce hydrogen could provide a cost-competitive alternative (\<2 $kg-1) to WIM{\textquoteright}s current coal-dominated hydrogen manufacturing system, contributing at the same time to important reductions in wind curtailment and CO2\ emissions. The levelized cost for hydrogen production is projected to decrease in the coming decade consistent with increases in wind power capacity and decreases in capital costs for electrolyzers. Lessons learned from the study can be applied to other regions and countries to explore possibilities for larger scale economically justified and carbon saving hydrogen production with renewables.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148121005279$\#$!}, author = {Lin, Haiyang and Qiuwei Wu and Chen, Xinyu and Xi Yang and Xinyang Guo and Jiajun Lv and Tianguang Lu and Shaojie Song and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1389704, title = {The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China{\textquoteright}s low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {136}, year = {2021}, note = {Dowload PDF}, pages = {110438}, abstract = {Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) can be cost-effective for carbon mitigation, but they also have environmental co-benefits and economic impacts that cannot be ignored. Despite many empirical studies on the co-benefits of NDCs at the national or sectoral level, there is lack of integrated assessment on DDPs for their energy, economic, and environmental impact. This is due to the limitations of bottom-up and top-down models when used alone. This paper aims to fill this gap and link the bottom-up MAPLE model with a top-down CGE model to evaluate China{\textquoteright}s DDPs{\textquoteright} comprehensive impacts. First, results show that carbon dioxide emissions can be observed to peak in or before 2030, and non-fossil energy consumption in 2030 is around 27\%, which is well above the NDC target of 20\%. Second, significant environmental co-benefits can be expected: 7.1 million tons of SO2, 3.96 million tons of NOx, and 1.02 million tons of PM2.5\ will be reduced in the DDP scenario compared to the reference scenario. The health co-benefits demonstrated with the model-linking approach is around 678 billion RMB, and we observe that the linked model results are more in accordance with the conclusions of existing studies. Third, after linking, we find the real GDP loss from deep decarbonization is reduced from 0.92\% to 0.54\% in 2030. If the environmental co-benefits are considered, the GDP loss is further offset by 0.39\%. The primary innovation of this study is to give a full picture of DDPs{\textquoteright} impact, considering both environmental co-benefits and economic losses. We aim to provide positive evidence that developing countries can achieve targets higher than stated in the NDCs through DDP efforts, which will have clear environmental co-benefits to offset the economic losses.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032120307255}, author = {Xi Yang and Jun Pang and Fei Teng and Ruixin Gong and Cecilia Springer} } @article {1399004, title = {The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: a multi-model assessment}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {99}, year = {2021}, pages = {105284}, abstract = {We conduct a multi-model comparison of a carbon tax policy in China to examine how different models simulate the impacts in both near-term 2020, medium-term 2030, and distant future 2050. Though Top-down computable\ general equilibrium(CGE) models have been applied frequently on climate or other environmental/energy policies to assess emission reduction, energy use and economy-wide general equilibrium outcomes in China, the results often vary greatly across models, making it challenging to derive policies. We compare 8 China CGE models with different characteristics to examine how they estimate the effects of a plausible range of carbon tax scenarios {\textendash} low, medium and high carbon taxes.. To make them comparable we impose the same population growth, the same GDP growth path and world energy price shocks. We find that the 2030 NDC target for China are easily met in all models, but the 2060 carbon neutrality goal cannot be achieved even with our highest carbon tax rates. Through this carbon tax comparison, we find all 8 CGE models differ substantially in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy, aggregate prices, energy use and carbon reductions, as well as industry level output and price effects. We discuss the reasons for the divergent simulation results including differences in model structure, substitution parameters, baseline renewable penetration and methods of revenue recycling.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001894}, author = {Cao, Jing and Hancheng Dai and Shantong Li and Chaoyi Guo and Ho, Mun and Wenjia Cai and Jianwu He and Hai Huang and Jifeng Li and Yu Liu and Haoqi Qian and Can Wang and Libo Wu and Xiliang Zhang} } @article {1389864, title = {Global modeling of heterogeneous hydroxymethanesulfonate chemistry}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {21}, year = {2021}, pages = {457{\textendash}481}, abstract = {Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) has recently been identified as an abundant organosulfur compound in aerosols during winter haze episodes in northern China. It has also been detected in other regions although the concentrations are low. Because of the sparse field measurements, the global significance of HMS and its spatial and seasonal patterns remain unclear. Here, we modify and add to the implementation of HMS chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and conduct multiple global simulations. The model accounts for cloud entrainment and gas{\textendash}aqueous mass transfer within the rate expressions for heterogeneous sulfur chemistry. Our simulations can generally reproduce quantitative HMS observations from Beijing and show that East Asia has the highest HMS concentration, followed by Europe and North America. The simulated HMS shows a seasonal pattern with higher values in the colder period. Photochemical oxidizing capacity affects the competition of formaldehyde with oxidants (such as ozone and hydrogen peroxide) for sulfur dioxide and is a key factor influencing the seasonality of HMS. The highest average HMS concentration (1{\textendash}3 {\textmu}g m-3) and HMS / sulfate molar ratio (0.1{\textendash}0.2) are found in northern China in winter. The simulations suggest that aqueous clouds act as the major medium for HMS chemistry while aerosol liquid water may play a role if its rate constant for HMS formation is greatly enhanced compared to cloud water.}, url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/457/2021/acp-21-457-2021.html}, author = {Shaojie Song and Tao Ma and Yuzhong Zhang and Lu Shen and Pengfei Liu and Ke Li and Shixian Zhai and Zheng, Haotian and Meng Gao and Jonathan M. Moch and Fengkui Duan and He, Kebin and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1400285, title = {Opportunities for household energy on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in line with United Nations{\textquoteright} Sustainable Development Goals}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {144}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Approximately seven million population in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, a global climate sensitive region, still rely primarily on yak dung for household cooking and heating. The treatment and combustion of yak dung result in a variety of negative impacts in terms of local alpine grassland degradation,\ indoor air pollution, public health risk, as well as global climate change. There is an urgent need to explore\ alternative pathway\ for affordable and clean energy as indicated in the United Nations{\textquoteright} Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. This perspective has analyzed the key challenges rooted in yak dung use on the Qinghai-Tibet\ Plateau region. Based on this, this perspective has further proposed a new complementary energy system to take advantage of locally available, clean and sustainable energy sources of wind and solar power, and have provided economic analyses. Meanwhile, this perspective has pointed out the potential barriers to promoting the new complementary energy system in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region due to traditional habits, economic factors and policies. Finally, strategies for transitioning from yak dung to the proposed alternative energy system is discussed at the end. Successful energy transition for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region offers an important option to achieving many other sustainable development goals related to climate change, economic development, and environment. The perspective is expected to shed light on the development of sustainable energy in other developing region or countries in the world to address multiple societal goals.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032121002744?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Minghao Zhuang and Lu, Xi and Peng, Wei and Yanfen Wang and Jianxiao Wang and Nielsen, Chris P. and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1390376, title = {Projected changes in wind power potential over China and India in high resolution climate models}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, year = {2021}, pages = {034057}, abstract = {As more countries commit to emissions reductions by midcentury to curb anthropogenic climate change, decarbonization of the electricity sector becomes a first-order task in reaching this goal. Renewables, particularly wind and solar power, will be predominant components of this transition. How availability of the wind and solar resource will change in the future in response to regional climate changes is an important and underdiscussed topic of the decarbonization process. Here, we study changes in potential for wind power in China and India, evaluating prospectively until the year 2060. To do this, we study a downscaled, high-resolution multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models under high and low emissions scenarios. While there is some intermodel variability, we find that spatial changes are generally consistent across models, with decreases of up to 965 (a 1\% change) and 186 TWh (a 2\% change) in annual electricity generation potential for China and India, respectively. Compensating for the declining resource are weakened seasonal and diurnal variabilities, allowing for easier large-scale wind power integration. We conclude that while the ensemble indicates available wind resource over China and India will decline slightly in the future, there remains enormous potential for significant wind power expansion, which must play a major role in carbon neutral aspirations.}, url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe57c}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Shaojie Song and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1390366, title = {Prospective contributions of biomass pyrolysis to China{\textquoteright}s 2050 carbon reduction and renewable energy goals}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {12}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Deployment of negative emission technologies needs to start immediately if we are to avoid overshooting international carbon targets, reduce negative climate impacts, and minimize costs of emission mitigation. Actions in China, given its importance for the global anthropogenic carbon budget, can be decisive. While bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may need years to mature, this study focuses on developing a ready-to-implement biomass intermediate pyrolysis poly-generation (BIPP) technology to produce a potentially stable form of biochar, a medium for carbon storage, and to provide a significant source of valuable biofuels, especially pyrolysis gas. Combining the experimental data with hybrid models, the results show that a BIPP system can be profitable without subsidies: its national deployment could contribute to a 68\% reduction of carbon emissions per unit of GDP in 2030 compared to 2005 and could result additionally in a reduction in air pollutant emissions. With 73\% of national crop residues converted to biochar and other biofuels in the near term (2020 to 2030), the cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction could reach up to 5653 Mt CO2-eq by 2050, which could contribute 9-20\% of the global GHG emission reduction goal for BECCS (28-65 Gt CO2-eq in IPCC{\textquoteright}s 1.5 {\textdegree}C pathway), and nearly 2633 Mt more than that projected for BECCS alone. The national BIPP development strategy is developed on a provincial scale based on a regional economic and life-cycle analysis.\ }, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21868-z}, author = {Yang, Qing and Hewen Zhou and Bartocci, Pietro and Fantozzi, Francesco and Ma{\v s}ek, Ond{\v r}ej and Foster Agblevor and Wei, Zhiyu and Yang, Haiping and Chen, Hanping and Lu, Xi and Guoqian Chen and Zheng, Chuguang and Nielsen, Chris P. and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1365411, title = {A reinforcement learning-based decision system for electricity pricing plan selection by smart grid end users}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid}, volume = {12}, year = {2021}, pages = {2176-2187}, abstract = {With the development of deregulated retail power markets, it is possible for end users equipped with smart meters and controllers to optimize their consumption cost portfolios by choosing various pricing plans from different retail electricity companies. This paper proposes a reinforcement learning-based decision system for assisting the selection of electricity pricing plans, which can minimize the electricity payment and consumption dissatisfaction for individual smart grid end user. The decision problem is modeled as a transition probability-free Markov decision process (MDP) with improved state framework. The proposed problem is solved using a Kernel approximator-integrated batch Q-learning algorithm, where some modifications of sampling and data representation are made to improve the computational and prediction performance. The proposed algorithm can extract the hidden features behind the time-varying pricing plans from a continuous high-dimensional state space. Case studies are based on data from real-world historical pricing plans and the optimal decision policy is learned without a priori information about the market environment. Results of several experiments demonstrate that the proposed decision model can construct a precise predictive policy for individual user, effectively reducing their cost and energy consumption dissatisfaction.}, url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9209082}, author = {Tianguang Lu and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B. and Chris Nielsen and Qiuwei Wu and Hongying He and Qian Ai} } @article {1386745, title = {Seasonal variations of park visitor volume and park service area in Tokyo: A mixed-method approach combining big data and field observations}, journal = {Urban Forestry \& Urban Greening}, volume = {58}, year = {2021}, pages = {126973}, abstract = {Urban green and open space are important components of achieving the goal of planning sustainable cities, by offering health benefits to urban dwellers and providing socio-economic and environmental benefits to society. Recent literature studied the usage of urban parks, however, few has addressed seasonal fluctuations of park visitor volume, let alone seasonal variations of home-park travel distances and park service areas. This paper not only empirically shows the seasonal variations of park visits but also examines links between the park visit patterns and spatial characteristics of the case parks. Applying spatial analysis methods to location data of over 1 million anonymous mobile phone samples collected from January to December 2011, we analyzed the seasonal variations in six medium-sized urban parks, of which size falls under the category of {\textquoteleft}district parks,{\textquoteright} in central Tokyo. We also conducted content analysis of a Japanese place review website to understand visitor perceptions of the case parks. On the other hand, park spatial characteristics data were collected and summarized through various ways including field observation and satellite image analysis. The results show that (1) while notable seasonal variations of park visitor volume and park service area existed in all case parks, the degree of variation also differed from park to park; (2) spatial characteristics of parks were closely interlinked to seasonal cultural events, to visitor perceptions, and consequently to seasonal fluctuations of the park visit patterns. Lessons learned from the policy perspective include highly diverse user groups visit these medium-sized urban parks than what the typical guidelines assume, and seasonal patterns of their visits considerably vary from park to park, interacting with spatial characteristics of the parks. Hence, the urban park planning process should consider specific and detailed characteristics of parks and allocate resources to respond to dynamic park visit patterns beyond generic guidelines.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1618866720307901?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Jihoon Song and Michael Keith and Bo Zhang and Yuki Akiyama and Liangjun Da and Ryosuke Shibasaki and Taisei Sato} } @article {1389918, title = {Sensitivity of modeled Indian Monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {21}, year = {2021}, pages = {3593{\textendash}3605}, abstract = {The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 \% of India{\textquoteright}s precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols on India{\textquoteright}s monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 \%) is found only when both countries{\textquoteright} sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.}, url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/3593/2021/acp-21-3593-2021.pdf}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Meng Gao and Shaojie Song and Alex T. Archibald and Nathan Luke Abraham and Jean-Fran{\c c}ois Lamarque and Drew Shindell and Gregory Faluvegi and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1470826, title = {Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, year = {2021}, note = {View the PDF}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s anthropogenic methane emissions are the largest of any country in the world. A recent study using atmospheric observations suggested that recent policies aimed at reducing emissions of methane due to coal production in China after 2010 had been largely ineffective. Here, based on a longer observational record and an updated modelling approach, we find a statistically significant positive linear trend (0.36 {\textpm} 0.04 ($\pm1\sigma$) Tg CH4\ yr-2) in China{\textquoteright}s methane emissions for 2010{\textendash}2017. This trend was slowing down at a statistically significant rate of -0.1 {\textpm} 0.04 Tg CH4\ yr-3. We find that this decrease in growth rate can in part be attributed to a decline in China{\textquoteright}s coal production. However, coal mine methane emissions have not declined as rapidly as production, implying that there may be substantial fugitive emissions from abandoned coal mines that have previously been overlooked. We also find that emissions over rice-growing and aquaculture-farming regions show a positive trend (0.13 {\textpm} 0.05 Tg CH4\ yr-2\ for 2010{\textendash}2017) despite reports of shrinking rice paddy areas, implying potentially significant emissions from new aquaculture activities, which are thought to be primarily located on converted rice paddies.}, url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac24d1}, author = {Jianxiong Sheng and Rachel Tunnicliffe and Anita L Ganesan and Joannes D Maasakkers and Lu Shen and Ronald G Prinn and Shaojie Song and Yuzhong Zhang and Tia Scarpelli and A Anthony Bloom} } @article {1415729, title = {Voluntary actions in households and climate change mitigation}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {321}, year = {2021}, pages = {128930}, abstract = {Governments foster voluntary actions within households to mitigate climate change. However, the literature suggests that they may not be as effective as expected due to rebound effects. We use a dynamic economy{\textendash}energy{\textendash}environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Catalan economy to simulate the effect of 75 different actions on GDP and net CO2\ emissions, over a 20-year period. We also examine how a carbon tax could counteract the carbon rebound effects. We find\ energy rebound\ effects ranging from 61.77\% to 117.49\% for voluntary energy conservation actions, depending on where the spending is redirected, with similar carbon rebound values. In our main scenarios, where energy savings are redirected to savings and all non-energy goods proportionally, the rebound is between 64.47\% and 66.90\%. We also find, for these scenarios, that a carbon tax of between 2.4 and 3.6 {\texteuro}/ton per percentage point of voluntary energy reduction would totally\ offset carbon\ rebound effects. These results suggest that voluntary actions in households need additional measures to provide the expected results in terms of energy use reduction and\ climate change mitigation.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652621031231?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Jaume Freire-Gonz{\'a}lez and Ho, Mun S.} } @article {1403246, title = {When carbon emission trading meets a regulated industry: Evidence from the electricity sector of China}, journal = {Journal for Public Economics}, volume = {200}, year = {2021}, pages = {104470}, abstract = {This paper provides retrospective firm-level evidence on the effectiveness of China{\textquoteright}s carbon market pilots in reducing emissions in the electricity sector. We show that the carbon emission trading system (ETS) has no effect on changing coal efficiency of regulated coal- fired power plants. Although we find a significant reduction in coal consumption associated with ETS participation, this reduction was achieved by reducing electricity production. The output contraction in the treated plants is not due to their optimizing behavior but is likely driven by government decisions, because the impacts of emission permits on marginal costs are small relative to the controlled electricity prices and the reduction is associated with financial losses. In addition, we find no evidence of carbon leakage to other provinces, but a significant increase in the production of non-coal-fired power plants in the ETS regions.\ }, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104470}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S. and Rong Ma and Fei Teng} } @article {1373705, title = {Analyzing carbon pricing policies using a general equilibrium model with production parameters estimated using firm data}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {92}, year = {2020}, pages = {104958}, abstract = {

Policy simulation results of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models largely hinge on the choices of substitution elasticities among key input factors. Currently, most CGE models rely on the common elasticities estimated from aggregated data, such as the GTAP model elasticity parameters. Using firm level data, we apply the control function method to estimate CES production functions with capital, labor and energy inputs and find significant heterogeneity in substitution elasticities across different industries. Our capital-labor substitution elasticities are much lower than the GTAP values while our energy elasticities are higher. We then incorporate these estimated elasticities into a CGE model to simulate China{\textquoteright}s carbon pricing policies and compare with the results using GTAP parameters. Our less elastic K-L substitution lead to lower base case GDP growth, but our more elastic energy substitution lead to lower coal use and carbon emissions. In the carbon tax policy exercises, we find that our elasticities lead to easier reductions in coal use and carbon emissions.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104958}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S and Rong Ma} } @article {1440117, title = {Benchmarking road safety development across OECD countries: An empirical analysis for a decade}, journal = {Accident Analysis \& Prevention}, volume = {147}, year = {2020}, pages = {105752}, abstract = {Benchmarking performance, monitoring progress and then recalibrating interventions is widely recognized as a valuable process for achieving continuous improvement in road safety. In this study, a systematic and effective methodology, IV-VIKOR with FNBC, is developed to perform the benchmarking of road safety development in an integrative manner for OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Linking to other methods and measures as the references, 36 OECD Member countries are ranked and grouped into several classes based on their overall achievement regarding road safety from the past decade (2009{\textendash}2018). This provides government officials and policymakers, across the OECD Member countries, with a flexible tool to comprehensively benchmark road safety development. Providing the ability to identify delays in action plan implementations and proactively redistribute resources toward more effective measures where required. Such a tool can also serve to increase political will and stakeholder accountabilities, at the highest level of government and the private sector for all OECD members: Thereby keeping the implementation of action plans on schedule. It helps OECD Member countries to establish the capacity for sustainable safety management; supporting them in developing future strategies and reforms to create better policies for better lives.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105752}, author = {Fann Chen and Jingyang Lyu and Tianye Wang} } @article {1279572, title = {China{\textquoteright}s emission control strategies have suppressed unfavorable influences of climate on wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing since 2002}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {20}, year = {2020}, note = {View Research Brief}, pages = {1497-1505}, abstract = {Severe wintertime PM2.5\ pollution in Beijing has been receiving increasing worldwide attention, yet the decadal variations remain relatively unexplored. Combining field measurements and model simulations, we quantified the relative influences of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological conditions on PM2.5\ concentrations in Beijing over the winters of 2002{\textendash}2016. Between the winters of 2011 and 2016, stringent emission control measures resulted in a 21 \% decrease in mean mass concentrations of PM2.5\ in Beijing, with 7 fewer haze days per winter on average. Given the overestimation of PM2.5\ by the model, the effectiveness of stringent emission control measures might have been slightly overstated. With fixed emissions, meteorological conditions over the study period would have led to an increase in haze in Beijing, but the strict emission control measures have suppressed the unfavorable influences of the recent climate. The unfavorable meteorological conditions are attributed to the weakening of the East Asia winter monsoon associated particularly with an increase in pressure associated with the Aleutian Low.}, url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/1497/2020/acp-20-1497-2020.html}, author = {Meng Gao and Zirui Liu and Bo Zheng and Dongsheng Ji and Sherman, Peter and Shaojie Song and Jinyuan Xin and Cheng Liu and Yuesi Wang and Zhang, Qiang and Xing, Jia and Jingkun Jiang and Zifa Wang and Gregory R. Carmichael and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1324977, title = {Contribution of particulate nitrate photolysis to heterogeneous sulfate formation for winter haze in China}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology Letters}, volume = {7}, year = {2020}, pages = {632{\textendash}638}, abstract = {Nitrate and sulfate are two key components of airborne particulate matter (PM). While multiple formation mechanisms have been proposed for sulfate, current air quality models commonly underestimate its concentrations and mass fractions during northern China winter haze events. On the other hand, current models usually overestimate the mass fractions of nitrate. Very recently, laboratory studies have proposed that nitrous acid (N(III)) produced by particulate nitrate photolysis can oxidize sulfur dioxide to produce sulfate. Here, for the first time, we parameterize this heterogeneous mechanism into the state-of-the-art Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and quantify its contributions to sulfate formation. We find that the significance of this mechanism mainly depends on the enhancement effects (by 1{\textendash}3 orders of magnitude as suggested by the available experimental studies) of nitrate photolysis rate constants in aerosol liquid water compared to that in the gas phase. Comparisons between model simulations and in-situ observations in Beijing suggest that this pathway can explain about 15\% (assuming an enhancement factor (EF) of 10) to 65\% (assuming EF = 100) of the model{\textendash}observation gaps in sulfate concentrations during winter haze. Our study strongly calls for future research on reducing the uncertainty in EF.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00368}, author = {Zheng, Haotian and Shaojie Song and Sarwar, Golam and Gen, Masao and Wang, Shuxiao and Ding, Dian and Chang, Xing and Zhang, Shuping and Xing, Jia and Yele Sun and Dongsheng Ji and Chan, Chak and Gao, Jian and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1274258, title = {Delineating urban park catchment areas using mobile phone data: A case study of Tokyo}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {81}, year = {2020}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {101474}, abstract = {Urban parks can offer both physical and psychological health benefits to urban dwellers and provide social, economic, and environmental benefits to society. Earlier research on the usage of urban parks relied on fixed distance or walking time to delineate urban park catchment areas. However, actual catchment areas can be affected by many factors other than park surface areas, such as social capital cultivation, cultural adaptation, climate and seasonal variation, and park function and facilities provided. This study advanced this method by using mobile phone data to delineate urban park catchment area. The study area is the 23 special wards of Tokyo or tokubetsu-ku, the core of the capital of Japan. The location data of over 1 million anonymous mobile phone users was collected in 2011. The results show that: (1) the park catchment areas vary significantly by park surface areas: people use smaller parks nearby but also travel further to larger parks; (2) even for the parks in the same size category, there are notable differences in the spatial pattern of visitors, which cannot be simply summarized with average distance or catchment radius; and (3) almost all the parks, regardless of its size and function, had the highest user density right around the vicinity, exemplified by the density-distance function closely follow a decay trend line within 1-2 km radius of the park. As such, this study used the density threshold and density-distance function to measure park catchment. We concluded that the application of mobile phone location data can improve our understanding of an urban park catchment area, provide useful information and methods to analyze the usage of urban parks, and can aid in the planning and policy-making of urban parks.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971519305009}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Jihoon Song and Michael Keith and Yuki Akiyama and Ryosuke Shibasaki and Taisei Sato} } @article {1292661, title = {Design and implementation of a data-driven approach to visualizing power quality}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid}, volume = {114}, year = {2020}, pages = {4366-4379}, abstract = {Numerous underlying causes of power-quality (PQ) disturbances have enhanced the application of situational awareness to power systems. This application provides an optimal overall response for contingencies. With measurement data acquired by a multi-source PQ monitoring system, we propose an interactive visualization tool for PQ disturbance data based on a geographic information system (GIS). This tool demonstrates the spatio{\textendash}temporal distribution of the PQ disturbance events and the cross-correlation between PQ records and environmental factors, leveraging Getis statistics and random matrix theory. A methodology based on entity matching is also introduced to analyze the underlying causes of PQ disturbance events. Based on real-world data obtained from an actual power system, offline and online PQ data visualization scenarios are provided to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework.}, url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9057569}, author = {Xiao, Fei and Tianguang Lu and Qian Ai and Wang, Xiaolong and Chen, Xinyu and Fang, Sidun and Qiuwei Wu} } @article {1369191, title = {Development of the global atmospheric general circulation-chemistry model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0: model description and evaluation}, journal = {Geoscientific Model Development}, volume = {13}, year = {2020}, pages = {3817{\textendash}3838}, abstract = {Chemistry plays an indispensable role in investigations of the atmosphere; however, many climate models either ignore or greatly simplify atmospheric chemistry, limiting both their accuracy and their scope. We present the development and evaluation of the online global atmospheric chemical model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0, coupling the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) as an atmospheric chemistry component in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC-AGCM). The GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry component includes detailed troposphericHOx{\textendash}NOx{\textendash}volatile organic compounds{\textendash}ozone{\textendash}bromine{\textendash}aerosol chemistry and online dry and wet deposition schemes. We then demonstrate the new capabilities of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 relative to the base BCC-AGCM model through a 3-year (2012{\textendash}2014) simulation with anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The model captures well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations in tropospheric ozone, with seasonal mean biases of 0.4{\textendash}2.2 ppbv at 700{\textendash}400 hPa compared to satellite observations and within 10 ppbv at the surface to 500 hPa compared to global ozonesonde observations. The model has larger high-ozone biases over the tropics which we attribute to an overestimate of ozone chemical production. It underestimates ozone in the upper troposphere which is likely due either to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme or to biases in estimated stratosphere{\textendash}troposphere exchange dynamics. The model diagnoses the global tropospheric ozone burden, OH concentration, and methane chemical lifetime to be 336 Tg,\ 1.16{\texttimes}106 molecule cm-3, and 8.3 years, respectively, which is consistent with recent multimodel assessments. The spatiotemporal distributions of\ NO2, CO,\ SO2,\ CH2O, and aerosol optical depth are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The development of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 represents an important step for the development of fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) in China.}, url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3817/2020/gmd-13-3817-2020-discussion.html}, author = {Lu, X. and Zhang, L. and Wu, T. and Long, M. S. and J. Wang and Jacob, D.J. and Zhang, F. and Zhang, J. and Eastham, S. D. and Hu, L. and L. Zhu and Liu, X. and Wei, M.} } @article {1236120, title = {Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China}, journal = {China Economic Review}, volume = {61}, year = {2020}, pages = {101398}, abstract = {The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth {\textendash} further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment, improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization, and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40\% for 2015-2030 compared to -0.60\% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80\% for 2015-2030 compared to 5.23\% if these factors are ignored.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X19301592?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S. and Wenhao Hu and Jorgenson, Dale} } @article {1291498, title = {Estimating flexible consumption functions for urban and rural households in China}, journal = {China Economic Review}, volume = {61}, year = {2020}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {101453}, abstract = {

There are few comprehensive studies of household consumption in China due to data restrictions. This prevents the calculation of inequality indices based on consumption. Secondly, this makes a comprehensive analysis of policies that affect consumption difficult; economy-wide models used for analysis often have to employ simple consumption forms with unit income elasticities. We estimate a translog demand system distinguished by demographic characteristics, giving price and income elasticities that should be useful for policy analysis. We estimate separate functions for urban and rural households using household expenditure data and detailed commodity prices (1995-2006). This allows future analysis of social welfare and inequality based on consumption to supplement existing studies based on income. To illustrate an application of the model, we project consumption composition based on projected prices, incomes and demographic changes {\textendash} aging, education improvement and urbanization.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X2030050X?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S. and Wenhao Hu and Jorgensen, Dale W.} } @article {1283051, title = {Evaluating China{\textquoteright}s anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventories: a northern China case study using continuous surface observations from 2005 to 2009}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {20}, year = {2020}, note = {View Research Brief}, pages = {3569{\textendash}3588}, abstract = {China has pledged reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60 \%{\textendash}65 \% relative to 2005 levels, and to peak carbon emissions overall by 2030. However, the lack of observational data and disagreement among the many available inventories makes it difficult for China to track progress toward these goals and evaluate the efficacy of control measures. To demonstrate the value of atmospheric observations for constraining\ CO2\ inventories we track the ability of\ CO2\ concentrations predicted from three different\ CO2\ inventories to match a\ unique multi-year continuous record of atmospheric\ CO2. Our analysis time window includes the key commitment period for the Paris Agreement (2005) and the Beijing Olympics (2008). One inventory is China-specific and two are spatial subsets of global inventories.\ The inventories differ in spatial resolution, basis in national or subnational statistics, and reliance on global or China-specific emission factors. We\ use a\ unique set of historical atmospheric observations from 2005 to 2009 to evaluate the three\ CO2\ emissions inventories within China{\textquoteright}s heavily industrialized and populated northern region accounting for\ \~{}33 \%{\textendash}41 \% of national emissions. Each anthropogenic inventory is combined with estimates of biogenic\ CO2\ within a\ high-resolution atmospheric transport framework to model the time series of\ CO2\ observations. To convert the model{\textendash}observation mismatch from mixing ratio to mass emission rates we distribute it over a\ region encompassing 90 \% of the total surface influence in seasonal (annual) averaged back-trajectory footprints (L_0.90 region). The L_0.90 region roughly corresponds to northern China. Except for the peak growing season, where assessment of anthropogenic emissions is entangled with the strong vegetation signal, we find the China-specific inventory based on subnational data and domestic field studies agrees significantly better with observations than the global inventories at all timescales. Averaged over the study time period, the unscaled China-specific inventory reports substantially larger annual emissions for northern China (30 \%) and China as a\ whole (20 \%) than the two unscaled global inventories. Our results, exploiting a\ robust time series of continuous observations, lend support to the rates and geographic distribution in the China-specific inventory Though even long-term observations at a\ single site reveal differences among inventories, exploring inventory discrepancy over all of China requires a\ denser observational network in future efforts to measure and verify\ CO2\ emissions for China both regionally and nationally. We find that carbon intensity in the northern China region has decreased by 47 \% from 2005 to 2009, from approximately 4 kg\ of\ CO2\ per USD (note that all references to USD in this paper refer to USD adjusted for purchasing power parity, PPP) in 2005 to about 2 kg\ of\ CO2\ per USD in 2009 (Fig.\ 9c). However, the corresponding 18 \% increase in absolute emissions over the same time period affirms a\ critical point that carbon intensity targets in emerging economies can be at odds with making real climate progress. Our results provide an important quantification of model{\textendash}observation mismatch, supporting the increased use and development of China-specific inventories in tracking China{\textquoteright}s progress as a\ whole towards reducing emissions. We emphasize that this work presents a\ methodology for extending the analysis to other inventories and is intended to be a\ comparison of a\ subset of anthropogenic\ CO2\ emissions rates from inventories that were readily available at the time this research began. For this study{\textquoteright}s analysis time period, there was not enough spatially distinct observational data to conduct an optimization of the inventories. The primary intent of the comparisons presented here is not to judge specific inventories, but to demonstrate that even a\ single site with a\ long record of high-time-resolution observations can identify major differences among inventories that manifest as biases in the model{\textendash}data comparison. This study provides a\ baseline analysis for evaluating emissions from a\ small but important region within China, as well a\ guide for determining optimal locations for future ground-based measurement sites.}, url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/3569/2020/acp-20-3569-2020.html}, author = {Dayalu, Archana and J. William Munger and Wang, Yuxuan and Steven C. Wofsy and Zhao, Yu and Thomas Nehrkorn and Nielsen, Chris P. and McElroy, Michael B. and Chang, Rachel} } @article {1369041, title = {Health benefits of on-road transportation pollution control programs in China}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {117}, year = {2020}, pages = {25370-25377}, abstract = {China started to implement comprehensive measures to mitigate traffic pollution at the end of 1990s, but the comprehensive effects, especially on ambient air quality and public health, have not yet been systematically evaluated. In this study, we analyze the effects of vehicle emission control measures on ambient air pollution and associated deaths attributable to long-term exposures of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and O3\ based on an integrated research framework that combines scenario analysis, air quality modeling, and population health risk assessment. We find that the total impact of these control measures was substantial. Vehicular emissions during 1998{\textendash}2015 would have been 2{\textendash}3 times as large as they actually were, had those measures not been implemented. The national population-weighted annual average concentrations of PM2.5\ and O3\ in 2015 would have been higher by 11.7 μg/m3\ and 8.3 parts per billion, respectively, and the number of deaths attributable to 2015 air pollution would have been higher by 510 thousand (95\% confidence interval: 360 thousand to 730 thousand) without these controls. Our analysis shows a concentration of mortality impacts in densely populated urban areas, motivating local policymakers to design stringent vehicle emission control policies. The results imply that vehicle emission control will require policy designs that are more multifaceted than traditional controls, primarily represented by the strict emission standards, with careful consideration of the challenges in coordinated mitigation of both PM2.5\ and O3\ in different regions, to sustain improvement in air quality and public health given continuing swift growth in China{\textquoteright}s vehicle population.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921271117}, author = {Wang, Haikun and He, Xiaojing and Liang, Xinyu and Choma, Ernani F. and Liu,Yifan and Shan, Li and Zheng, Haotian and Zhang, Shaojun and Chris Nielsen and Wang, Shuxiao and Wu, Ye and Evans, John} } @article {1287414, title = {Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland Ice Sheet melt}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {47}, year = {2020}, pages = {e2019GL086913}, abstract = {Understanding how internal atmospheric variability affects Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summertime melting would improve understanding of future sea level rise. We analyze the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) over 1951-2000 and 2051-2100. We find that internal variability dominates the forced response on short timescales (~20 years) and that the area impacted by internal variability grows in the future, connecting internal variability and climate change. Unlike prior studies, we do not assume specific patterns of internal variability to affect GrIS melting, but derive them from Maximum Covariance Analysis. We find that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of internal atmospheric variability associated with GrIS melt conditions in CESM-LE and reanalysis, with the positive phase (NAO+) linked to widespread cooling over the ice sheet. CESM-LE and CMIP5 project an increase in the frequency of NAO+ events, suggesting a negative feedback to the GrIS under future climate change.}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086913}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Tziperman, Eli and Deser, Clara and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1365407, title = {India{\textquoteright}s potential for integrating solar and on- and offshore wind power into its energy system}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, abstract = {This paper considers options for a future Indian power economy in which renewables, wind and solar, could meet 80\% of anticipated 2040 power demand supplanting the country{\textquoteright}s current reliance on coal. Using a cost optimization model, here we show that renewables could provide a source of power cheaper or at least competitive with what could be supplied using fossil-based alternatives. The ancillary advantage would be a significant reduction in India{\textquoteright}s future power sector related emissions of CO2. Using a model in which prices for wind turbines and solar PV systems are assumed to continue their current decreasing trend, we conclude that an investment in renewables at a level consistent with meeting 80\% of projected 2040 power demand could result in a reduction of 85\% in emissions of CO2\ relative to what might be expected if the power sector were to continue its current coal dominated trajectory.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18318-7}, author = {Tianguang Lu and Sherman, Peter and Chen, Xinyu and Shi Chen and Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1275119, title = {The influence of neighborhood types on active transport in China{\textquoteright}s growing cities}, journal = {Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment}, volume = {80}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Rapid urban expansion in China has created both opportunities and challenges for promoting active transport in urban residential communities. Previous studies have shown that the urban form at the city scale has affected active transport in Chinese cities. However, there is less agreement about how the physical and social variations of neighborhood types should be addressed. This research investigates the four most representative neighborhood types found in Chinese cities: traditional mixed-use, slab block work-unit, gated community, and resettlement housing. Household travel diaries conducted in Chengdu in 2016 were analyzed using binary logistic regressions, supplemented by informal onsite interviews. The findings indicate significant variations in the use and accessibility of active transport in each neighborhood type for non-work trips. This suggests that each neighborhood type may need different strategies for promoting active transport: (1) the traditional mixed-use neighborhoods are in need of intensified urban retrofitting projects to reclaim public open space; (2) the work-unit could benefit from comprehensive plans rather than a patchwork of projects; (3) while opening up gated communities can improve porosity across neighborhoods and promote active transport, the more pressing issue may be their inability to keep up with the transportation needs of the residents; and (4) residents of resettlement housing should have better access to employment using transit and non-motorized modes.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920919314889}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Bo Zhang and Liangjun Da and Nielsen, Chris P. and Jialin Liu} } @article {1310214, title = {The influence of urban form and socio-demographics on active transport: a 40 neighborhoods study in Chengdu, China}, journal = {Journal of Transport and Land Use}, volume = {13}, year = {2020}, pages = {367{\textendash}388}, abstract = {

In China a centralized planning culture has created similar neighborhoods across the country. Using a survey of 1,048 individuals conducted in 2016 in Chengdu{\textemdash}located in a carefully conceptualized typology of neighborhood forms{\textemdash}we analyzed the associations between individual and neighborhood characteristics and active or non-motorized transport behavior. Using several multiple logistic and multi-level models, we show how neighborhoods were categorized and the number of categories or neighborhood types affected the magnitude of the associations with active transport but not the direction. People taking non-work trips were more likely to use active compared with motorized modes in all neighborhood types. Neighborhood type was significant in models, but so were many other individual-level variables and infrastructural and locational features such as bike lanes and location near the river. Of the 3-D physical environment variables, floor area ratio (a proxy for density) was only significant in one model for non-work trips. Intersection density and dissimilarity (land use diversity) were only significant in a model for work trips. This study shows that to develop strong theories about the connections between active transport and environments, it is important to examine different physical and cultural contexts and perform sensitivity analyses. Research in different parts of China can help provide a more substantial base for evidence-informed policy-making. Planning and design recommendations related to active transport need to consider how neighborhoods, built environments, and personal characteristics interact in different kinds of urban environments.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2020.1697}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Ann Forsyth} } @article {1286999, title = {Linking agricultural GHG emissions to the global trade network}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future}, volume = {8}, year = {2020}, pages = {e2019EF001361}, abstract = {As part of the climate policy to meet the 2-degrees Celsius (2 {\textdegree}C) target, actions in all economic sectors, including agriculture, are required to mitigate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While there has been an ever-increasing focus on agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions, limited attention has been paid to their economic drivers in the globalized world economy and related mitigation potentials. This paper makes a first attempt to trace AGHG emissions via global trade networks using a multi-regional input-output model and a complex network model. Over one third of global AGHG emissions in 2012 can be linked with products traded internationally, of which intermediate trade and final trade contribute 64.2\% and 35.8\%, respectively. Japan, the USA, Germany, the UK, and Hong Kong are the world{\textquoteright}s five largest net importers of embodied emissions, while Ethiopia, Australia, Pakistan, India and Argentina are the five largest net exporters. Some hunger-afflicted developing countries in Asia and Africa are important embodied emission exporters, due to their large-scale exports of agricultural products. Trade-related virtual AGHG emission transfers shape a highly heterogenous network, due to the coexistence of numerous peripheral economies and a few highly-connected hub economies. The network clustering structure is revealed by the regional integration of several trading communities, while hub economies are collectors and distributors in the global trade network, with important implications for emission mitigation. Achieving AGHG emission reduction calls for a combination of supply- and demand-side policies covering the global trade network.}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001361}, author = {Xueli Zhao and Xiaofang Wu and Chenghe Guan and Rong Ma and Nielsen, Chris P. and Bo Zhang} } @article {1326310, title = {Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand}, journal = {Journal of Global Economic Analysis}, volume = {5}, year = {2020}, pages = {63-108}, abstract = {Modelling and projecting consumption, investment and government demand by detailed commodities in CGE models poses many data and methodological challenges. We review the state of knowledge of modelling consumption of commodities (price and income elasticities and demographics), as well as the historical trends that we should be able to explain. We then discuss the current approaches taken in CGE models to project the trends in demand at various levels of commodity disaggregation. We examine the pros and cons of the various approaches to adjust parameters over time or using functions of time and suggest a research agenda to improve modelling and projection. We compare projections out to 2050 using LES, CES and AIDADS functions in the same CGE model to illustrate the size of the differences. In addition, we briefly discuss the allocation of total investment and government demand to individual commodities.}, url = {https://jgea.org/ojs/index.php/jgea/article/view/95}, author = {Ho, Mun and Britz, Wolfgang and Delzeit, Ruth and Leblanc, Florian and Roberto, Roson and Schuenemann, Franziska and Weitzel, Matthias} } @article {1231958, title = {Offshore wind: an opportunity for cost-competitive decarbonization of China{\textquoteright}s energy economy}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {6}, year = {2020}, note = {View the SEAS Press Release}, pages = {eaax9571}, abstract = {China has reduced growth in its emissions of greenhouse gases, success attributable in part due to major investments in onshore wind. By comparison, investments in offshore wind have been minor, limited until recently largely by perceptions of cost. Assimilated meteorological data are used here to assess future offshore wind potential for China. Analysis on a provincial basis indicates that the aggregate potential wind resource is 5.4 times larger than current coastal demand for power. Recent experiences with markets both in Europe and the US suggest that potential offshore resources in China could be exploited to cost-competitively provide 1148.3 TWh of energy in a high-cost scenario, 6383.4 TWh in a low-cost option, equivalent to between 36\% and 200\% of the total coastal energy demand post 2020. The analysis underscores significant benefits for offshore wind for China, with prospects for major reductions greenhouse emissions with ancillary benefits for air quality.}, url = {https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/8/eaax9571}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1293924, title = {Ozone pollution over China and India: seasonality and sources}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {20}, year = {2020}, pages = {4399-4414}, abstract = {A regional fully coupled meteorology{\textendash}chemistry model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), was employed to study the seasonality of ozone (O3) pollution and its sources in both China and India. Observations and model results suggest that\ O3\ in the North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and India exhibit distinctive seasonal features, which are linked to the influence of summer monsoons. Through a factor separation approach, we examined the sensitivity of\ O3\ to individual anthropogenic, biogenic, and biomass burning emissions. We found that summer\ O3\ formation in China is more sensitive to industrial and biogenic sources than to other source sectors, while the transportation and biogenic sources are more important in all seasons for India. Tagged simulations suggest that local sources play an important role in the formation of the summer\ O3\ peak in the NCP, but sources from Northwest China should not be neglected to control summer\ O3\ in the NCP. For the YRD region, prevailing winds and cleaner air from the ocean in summer lead to reduced transport from polluted regions, and the major source region in addition to local sources is Southeast China. For the PRD region, the upwind region is replaced by contributions from polluted PRD as autumn approaches, leading to an autumn peak. The major upwind regions in autumn for the PRD are YRD (11 \%) and Southeast China (10 \%). For India, sources in North India are more important than sources in the south. These analyses emphasize the relative importance of source sectors and regions as they change with seasons, providing important implications for\ O3\ control strategies.}, url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/4399/2020/}, author = {Meng Gao and Gao, Jinhui and Zhu, Bin and Kumar, Rajesh and Xiao Lu and Shaojie Song and Yuzhong Zhang and Jia, Beixi and Wang, Peng and Gufran Beig and Jianlin Hu and Qi Ying and Hongliang Zhang and Sherman, Peter and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1279588, title = {Precipitation extremes influence patterns and partitioning of evapotranspiration and transpiration in a deciduous boreal larch forest.}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {287}, year = {2020}, pages = {107936}, abstract = {Ecosystems at the margins of their zone could be amongst the first to experience significant shifts in structure and function. At this site there have already been signs of permafrost degradation and more frequent temperature and precipitation anomalies. The canopy-dominant larch accounted for half the total T fluxes. The remaining 50\% was distributed evenly among intermediate and suppressed trees. T is the dominant subcomponent in ET, where overall T/ET varies of 66\%{\textendash}84\% depending on precipitation patterns. In dormant and early growing seasons, T still constitutes a majority of ET even though the canopy foliage is not fully developed because cold soil creates a negative soil to air vapor pressure gradient that impedes evaporation. However, in the peak growing season, excess precipitation reduces T while providing sufficient wetness for surface evaporation. ET from standard data product based on MODIS satellite reflectance underestimates tower ET by 17\%{\textendash}29\%. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence measured by satellite is well correlated with tower ET (r2 = 0.69{\textendash}0.73) and could provide a better basis for regional ET extrapolations. Sites along boreal ecotones are critical to observe for signs of shifts in their structure, function, and response to climate anomalies.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192320300381?dgcid=author}, author = {Jialin Liu and Fangyan Cheng and J. William Munger and Timothy G. Whitby and Peng Jiang and Siyue Chen and Weiwen Ji and Xiuling Man} } @article {1315279, title = {A review of approaches to low-carbon transition of high-rise residential buildings in China}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {131}, year = {2020}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {109990}, abstract = {

In developing countries with a large population and fast urbanization, High-rise Residential Buildings (HRBs) have unavoidably become a very common, if not the most, accommodation solution. The paradigm of HRB energy consumption is characterized by high-density energy consumption, severe peak effects and a limited site area for integrating renewable energy, which constitute a hindrance to the low-carbon transition. This review paper investigates low-carbon transition efforts in the HRB sector from the perspective of urban energy systems to get a holistic view of their approaches. The HRB sector plays a significant role in reducing carbon emission and improving the resilience of urban energy systems. Different approaches to an HRB low-carbon transition are investigated and a brief overview of potential solutions is offered from the perspectives of improving energy efficiency, self-sufficiency and system resilience. The trends of decarbonization, decentralization and digitalization in the HRB sector allow a better alignment with transitioning urban energy systems and create cross-sectoral integration opportunities for low-carbon transition. It is also found that policy tools are powerful driving forces in China for incentivizing transition behaviors among utilities, end users and developers. Based on a comprehensive policy review, the policy implications are given. The research is geared for the situation in China but could also be used as an example for other developing countries that have similar urbanization patterns. Future research should focus on quantitative analysis, life-cycle analysis and transdisciplinary planning approaches.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032120302811}, author = {Wang, Yu and Mauree, Dasaraden and Sun, Qie and Lin, Haiyang and Scartezzini, Jean-Louis and Wennersten, Ronald} } @article {1371170, title = {Urban household consumption in China: price, income and demographic effects}, journal = {Review of Development Economics}, volume = {152}, year = {2020}, pages = {810-833}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12728}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S and Wenhao Hu and Jorgenson, Dale W} } @article {1145529, title = {Agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions of major economies: Consumption- vs. production-based perspectives}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {210}, year = {2019}, pages = {276-286}, abstract = {

Agriculture is one of the most important sectors for global anthropogenic methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. While much attention has been paid to production-side agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (ANGHG) emissions, less is known about the emissions from the consumption-based perspective. This paper aims to explore the characteristics of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions of global major economies by using the latest emission data from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) and the recently available global multi-regional input-output model from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The results show that in 2014, the 42 major economies together accounted for 60.7\% and 65.0\% of global total direct and embodied ANGHG emissions, respectively. The consumption-based ANGHG emissions in the US, Japan, and the EU were much higher than their production-based emissions, while the converse was true for Brazil, Australia, and India. The global-average embodied ANGHG emissions per capita was 0.7 t CO2-eq, but major developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Mexico were all below this average value. We find that the total transfer of embodied ANGHG emissions via international trade was 622.4 Mt CO2-eq, 11.9\% of the\ global total. China was the largest exporter of embodied ANGHG emissions, while the US was the largest importer. Most developed economies were net importers of embodied emissions. Mexico-US, China-US, China-EU, China-Japan, China-Russia, Brazil-EU, India-EU and India-US formed the main bilateral trading pairs of embodied emission flows. Examining consumption-based inventories can be useful for understanding the impacts of final demand and international trade on agricultural GHG emissions and identifying appropriate mitigation potentials along global supply chains.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618334188?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Mengyao Han and Bo Zhang and Yuqing Zhang and Chenghe Guan} } @article {1155883, title = {Benefits of current and future policies on emissions of China{\textquoteright}s coal-fired power sector indicated by continuous emission monitoring}, journal = {Environmental Pollution}, volume = {251}, year = {2019}, pages = {415-424}, abstract = {Emission inventories are critical to understanding the sources of air pollutants, but have high uncertainties in China due in part to insufficient on-site measurements. In this study, we developed a method of examining, screening and applying online data from the country{\textquoteright}s improving continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS) to reevaluate a {\textquotedblleft}bottom-up{\textquotedblright} emission inventory of China{\textquoteright}s coal-fired power sector. The benefits of China{\textquoteright}s current national emission standards and ultra-low emission policy for the sector were quantified assuming their full implementation. The derived national average emission factors of SO2, NOx\ and particulate matter (PM) were 1.00, 1.00 and 0.25 kg/t-coal respectively for 2015 based on CEMS data, smaller than those of previous studies that may not fully recognize improved emission controls in recent years. The annual emissions of SO2, NOx\ and PM from the sector were recalculated at 1321, 1430 and 334 Gg respectively, 75\%, 63\% and 76\% smaller than our estimates based on a previous approach without the benefit of CEMS data. The results imply that online measurement with proper data screening can better track the recent progress of emission controls. The emission intensity (the ratio of emissions to economic output) of Northwest China was larger than that of other regions, attributed mainly to its less intensive economy and industry. Transmission of electricity to more-developed eastern provinces raised the energy consumption and emissions of less-developed regions. Judged by 95 percentiles of flue-gas concentrations measured by CEMS, most power plants met the current national emission standards in 2015 except for those in Northwest and Northeast China, while plants that met the ultra-low emission policy were much scarcer. National SO2, NOx\ and PM emissions would further decline by 68\%, 55\% and 81\% respectively if the ultra-low emission policy can be strictly implemented, implying the great potential of the policy for emission abatement.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749119306335?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Yan Zhang and Xin Bo and Zhao, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1214623, title = {Bottom-up estimates of coal mine methane emissions in China: A gridded inventory, emission factors, and trends}, journal = {Environmental Science and Technology Letters}, volume = {6}, year = {2019}, pages = {473-478}, abstract = {China has large but uncertain coal mine methane (CMM) emissions. Inverse modeling (top-down) analyses of atmospheric methane observations can help improve the emission estimates but require reliable emission patterns as prior information. To serve this urgent need, we developed a high-resolution (0.25{\textdegree} {\texttimes} 0.25{\textdegree}) methane emission inventory for China{\textquoteright}s coal mining using a recent publicly available database of more than 10000 coal mines in China for 2011. This number of coal mines is 25 and 2.5 times, respectively, more than the number available in the EDGAR v4.2 and EDGAR v4.3.2 gridded global inventories, which have been extensively used in past inverse analyses. Our inventory shows large differences with the EDGAR v4.2 as well as its more recent version, EDGAR v4.3.2. Our results suggest that China{\textquoteright}s CMM emissions have been decreasing since 2012 on the basis of coal mining activities and assuming time-invariant emission factors but that regional trends differ greatly. Use of our inventory as prior information in future inverse modeling analyses can help better quantify CMM emissions as well as more confidently guide the future mitigation of coal to gas in China.}, url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.estlett.9b00294}, author = {Jianxiong Sheng and Shaojie Song and Yuzhong Zhang and Ronald G. Prinn and Greet Janssens-Maenhout} } @article {1044906, title = {Built environment, income and travel behavior: Change in the city of Chengdu 2005-2016}, journal = {International Journal of Sustainable Transportation}, volume = {14}, year = {2019}, pages = {749-760}, abstract = {In this paper, we look at differences in travel behavior and location characteristics across income in Chengdu, China at two points of time, 2005 and 2016, using household travel surveys. Specifically, we compare changes over time for different income groups for Chengdu in 2005 and 2016. We find that walking or biking remains the most common mode for all income groups but higher-income households appear to have more choices depending on the proximity of their neighborhood to downtown. We also find that both average local and average regional access have worsened since 2005. Furthermore, it appears that there is less economic diversity within neighborhoods in 2016 when compared to 2005, with more locations appearing to have 40\% or more of low-, middle-, or high-income households than in the past. Finally, we find that low-income households and older trip makers are more likely to walk or bike and that high-income households are the most likely to own cars and use motorized modes. Built environment characteristics like mixed land use appear to significantly reduce travel time in 2016 but do not result in higher non-motorized transport mode share. We contribute to existing literature by evaluating changes in the relationship of built environment and travel behavior during a period of rapid urbanization and economic growth in a Chinese city.}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15568318.2019.1625088?scroll=top\&needAccess=true}, author = {Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Chenghe Guan and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1154070, title = {Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain}, journal = {Economic Systems Research}, volume = {31}, year = {2019}, pages = {267-284}, abstract = {A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO2 emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: {\texteuro}10, {\texteuro}20 and {\texteuro}30 per ton of CO2. For each tax, four {\textquoteleft}revenue recycling{\textquoteright} scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of {\texteuro}10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO2 emissions reduction of around 10\% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of {\texteuro}20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09535314.2019.1568969}, author = {Jaume Freire-Gonz{\'a}lez and Ho, Mun S.} } @article {1162405, title = {China{\textquoteright}s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from diverse characteristics and growth of cities}, journal = {Nature Sustainability}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, note = {

Wang et al. is the cover article of this issue of Nature Sustainability.

}, pages = {748{\textendash}754}, abstract = {

China pledges to peak CO2\ emissions by 2030 or sooner under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 {\textdegree}C or less by the end of the century. By examining CO2\ emissions from 50 Chinese cities over the period 2000{\textendash}2016, we found a close relationship between per capita emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for individual cities, following the environmental Kuznets curve, despite diverse trajectories for CO2\ emissions across the cities. Results show that carbon emissions peak for most cities at a per capita GDP (in 2011 purchasing power parity) of around US$21,000 (80\% confidence interval: US$19,000 to 22,000). Applying a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the peak of per capita emissions using a Kuznets function based on China{\textquoteright}s historical emissions, we project that emissions for China should peak at 13{\textendash}16 GtCO2 yr-1\ between 2021 and 2025, approximately 5{\textendash}10 yr ahead of the current Paris target of 2030. We show that the challenges faced by individual types of Chinese cities in realizing low-carbon development differ significantly depending on economic structure, urban form and geographical location.

}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0339-6}, author = {Wang, Haikun and Lu, Xi and Deng, Yu and Yaoguang Sun and Nielsen, Chris P. and Liu,Yifan and Ge Zhu and Maoliang Bu and Bi, Jun and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1135132, title = {China{\textquoteright}s emissions trading system and an ETS-carbon tax hybrid}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {81}, year = {2019}, pages = {741-753}, abstract = {China is introducing a national carbon emission trading system (ETS), with details yet to be finalized. The ETS is expected to cover only the major emitters but it is often argued that a more comprehensive system will achieve the emission goals at lower cost. We first examine an ETS that covers both electricity and cement sectors and consider an ambitious cap starting in 2017 that will meet the official objective to reduce the carbon-GDP intensity by 60-65\% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The two ETS-covered industries are compensated with an output-based subsidy to represent the intention to give free permits to the covered enterprises. We then consider a hybrid system where the non-ETS sectors pay a carbon tax and share in the CO2\ reduction burden. Our simulations indicate that hybrid systems will achieve the same CO2\ goals with lower permit prices and GDP losses. We also show how auctioning of the permits improves the efficiency of the ETS and the hybrid systems. Finally, we find that these CO2\ control policies are progressive in that higher incomes households bear a bigger burden.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319301434?via=ihub}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S. and Dale W. Jorgenson and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1012101, title = {Chinese residential electricity consumption estimation and forecast using micro-data}, journal = {Resource and Energy Economics}, volume = {56}, year = {2019}, pages = {6-27}, abstract = {Based on econometric estimation using data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey, we develop a preferred forecast range of 85{\textendash}143 percent growth in residential per capita electricity demand over 2009{\textendash}2025. Our analysis suggests that per capita income growth drives a 43\% increase, with the remainder due to an unexplained time trend. Roughly one-third of the income-driven demand comes from increases in the stock of specific major appliances, particularly AC units. The other two-thirds comes from non-specific sources of income-driven growth and is based on an estimated income elasticity that falls from 0.28 to 0.11 as income rises. While the stock of refrigerators is not projected to increase, we find that they contribute nearly 20 percent of household electricity demand. Alternative plausible time trend assumptions are responsible for the wide range of 85{\textendash}143 percent. Meanwhile we estimate a price elasticity of demand of -0.7. These estimates point to carbon pricing and appliance efficiency policies that could substantially reduce demand.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765516303657}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S. and Li, Yating and Newell, Richard G. and Pizer, William A.} } @article {1172994, title = {Designing walkable cities and neighborhoods in the era of urban big data}, journal = {Urban Planning International}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, pages = {9-15}, abstract = {In this paper, we discuss walkable cities from the perspective of urban planning and design in the era of digitalization and urban big data. We start with a brief review on historical walkable cities schemes; followed by a deliberation on what a walkable city is and what the spatial elements of a walkable city are; and a discussion on the emerging themes and empirical methods to measure the spatial and urban design features of a walkable city. The first part of this paper looks at key urban design propositions and how they were proposed to promote walkability. The second part of this paper discusses the concept of walkability, which is fundamental to designing a walkable city. We emphasize both the physical (walkways, adjacent uses, space) and the perceived aspects (safety, comfort, enjoyment), and then we look at the variety of spatial elements constituting a walkable city. The third part of this paper looks at the emerging themes for designing walkable cities and neighborhoods. We discuss the application of urban big data enabled by growing computational powers and related empirical methods and interdisciplinary approaches including spatial planning, urban design, urban ecology, and public health. This paper aims to provide a holistic approach toward understanding of urban design and walkability, re-evaluate the spatial elements to build walkable cities, and discuss future policy interventions.}, url = {http://www.upi-planning.org/Magazine/Issue_Content.aspx?ID=47950}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Michael Keith and Andy Hong} } @article {1292634, title = {Distributed piecewise approximation economic dispatch for regional power systems under non-ideal communication}, journal = {IEEE Access}, volume = {7}, year = {2019}, pages = {45533-45543}, abstract = {Appropriate distributed economic dispatch (DED) strategies are of great importance to manage wide-area controllable generators in wide-area regional power systems. Compared with existing works related to ED, where dispatch algorithms are carried out by a centralized controller, a practical DED scheme is proposed in this paper to achieve the optimal dispatch by appropriately allocating the load to generation units while guaranteeing consensus among incremental costs. The ED problem is decoupled into several parallel sub-problems by the primal-dual principle to address the computational issue of satisfying power balance between the demand and the supply from the distributed regional power system. The feasibility test and an innovative mechanism for unit commitment are then designed to handle extreme operation situations, such as low load level and surplus generation. In the designed mechanism, the on/off status of units is determined in a fully distributed framework, which is solved using the piecewise approximation method and the discrete consensus algorithm. In the algorithm, the push-sum protocol is proposed to increase the system adaptation on the time-varying communication topology. Moreover, consensus gain functions are designed to ensure the performance of the proposed DED under communication noise. Case studies on a standard IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology}, url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8678758}, author = {Hao, Ran and Tianguang Lu and Qiuwei Wu and Chen, Xinyu and Qian Ai} } @article {1135134, title = {Does neighborhood form influence low-carbon transportation in China?}, journal = {Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment}, volume = {67}, year = {2019}, pages = {406-420}, abstract = {Developing less auto-dependent urban forms and promoting low-carbon transportation (LCT) are challenges facing our cities. Previous literature has supported the association between neighborhood form and low-carbon travel behaviour. Several studies have attempted to measure neighborhood forms focusing on physical built-environment factors such as population and employment density and socio-economic conditions such as income and race. We find that these characteristics may not be sufficiently fine-grained to differentiate between neighborhoods in Chinese cities. This research assesses characteristics of neighborhood spatial configuration that may influence the choice of LCT modes in the context of dense Chinese cities. Urban-form data from 40 neighborhoods in Chengdu, China, along with a travel behaviour survey of households conducted in 2016, were used to generate several measures of land use diversity and accessibility for each neighborhood. We use principle component analysis (PCA) to group these variables into dimensions that could be used to classify the neighborhoods. We then estimate regression models of low-carbon mode choices such as walking, bicycling, and transit to better understand the significance of these built-environment differences at the neighbourhood level. We find that, first, members of households do choose to walk or bike or take transit to work provided there is relatively high population density and sufficient access to public transit and jobs. Second, land-use diversity alone was not found to be significant in affecting LCT mode choice. Third, the proliferation of gated communities was found to reduce overall spatial connectivity within neighborhoods and had a negative effect on choice of LCT.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.12.015 }, author = {Chenghe Guan and Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1222131, title = {Energy consumption of urban households in China}, journal = {China Economic Review}, volume = {58}, year = {2019}, note = {

Final Manuscript in DASH
View Research Brief

}, abstract = {We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be -0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X1930104X}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S and Wenhao Hu} } @article {1153891, title = {Enhanced growth after extreme wetness compensates for post-drought carbon loss in dry forests}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, abstract = {While many studies have reported that drought events have substantial negative legacy effects on forest growth, it remains unclear whether wetness events conversely have positive growth legacy effects. Here, we report pervasive and substantial growth enhancement after extreme wetness by examining tree radial growth at 1929 forest sites, satellite-derived vegetation greenness, and land surface model simulations. Enhanced growth after extreme wetness lasts for 1 to 5 years and compensates for 93 {\textpm} 8\% of the growth deficit after extreme drought across global water-limited regions. Remarkable wetness-enhanced growths are observed in dry forests and gymnosperms, whereas the enhanced growths after extreme wetness are much smaller in wet forests and angiosperms. Limited or no enhanced growths are simulated by the land surface models after extreme wetness. These findings provide new evidence for improving climate-vegetation models to include the legacy effects of both drought and wet climate extremes.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08229-z?utm_source=feedburner\&utm_medium=feed\&utm_campaign=Feed\%3A+ncomms\%2Frss\%2Fcurrent+\%28Nature+Communications+-+current\%29}, author = {Peng Jiang and Hongyan Liu and Shilong Piao and Philippe Ciais and Xiuchen Wu and Yi Yin and Hongya Wang} } @article {1158775, title = {Entering and exiting: Productivity evolution of energy supply in China}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The continuous entry of new firms and exit of old ones might have substantial effects on productivity of energy supply. Since China is the world{\textquoteright}s largest energy producer, productivity of energy supply in China is a significant issue, which affects sustainability. As a technical application, this paper investigates the productivity and dynamic changes of Chinese coal mining firms. We find that the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of coal supply in China is largely lagging behind the growth rate of coal production. The entry and exit of non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) partially provide explanation for the dynamic change of aggregate TFP. Specifically, non-state owned entrants induced by the coal price boom after 2003, which had negative effects on TFP of energy supply, while the exit of non-SOEs had positive effects. Furthermore, there is regional heterogeneity concerning the effects of entry and exit on energy supply productivity. More entrants induced by coal price boom are concentrated in non-main production region (non-MPR), while more exits are located in MPR due to the government{\textquoteright}s enforcement. This provides explanation for the phenomena that productivity of energy supply in MPR gradually surpasses that in non-MPR. We also anticipate our paper to enhance understanding on the energy supply-side, which might further help us make informed decisions on energy planning and environmental policies.}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/4/983}, author = {Lin Zhou and Jianglong Li and Yangqing Dan and Chunping Xie and Houyin Long and Hongxun Liu} } @article {1229638, title = {Evolution of methane emissions in global supply chains during 2000-2012}, journal = {Resources, Conservation and Recycling}, volume = {150}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Reduction of methane emissions (CH4) plays an important role in addressing global climate change. Most previous studies have focused on the direct CH4\ emissions of economies, but overlooked the upstream CH4\ emissions along global supply chains induced by the final consumption of economies. Using a global multi-regional input-output analysis, this study aims to explore the evolution of CH4\ emissions embodied in international trade and final consumption in major economies during 2000{\textendash}2012. The results show that China, the EU, USA, India and Brazil were the top five economies with high volumes of consumption-based CH4\ emissions from 2000 to 2012. In particular, China{\textquoteright}s consumption-based CH4\ emissions showed an observable growth trend, while the EU, the USA and Japan showed a downward trend. It{\textquoteright}s estimated that growing amounts of CH4\ emissions (i.e., the volume increase from 77.1 Mt in 2000 to 95.9 Mt in 2012) were transferred globally via international trade, primarily as exports from China, Russia and other large developing economies to consumers in major developed economies. Russia{\textendash}EU, China{\textendash}USA and China{\textendash}EU formed the main bilateral trading pairs of embodied emission flows. Further analysis found that per capita consumption-based CH4\ emissions was closely related to their per capita GDP. Quantifying the CH4\ emissions embodied in trade and final demand of major economies can provide important basis for understanding economy-wide emission drivers to design global and regional CH4\ reduction scheme from a consumer perspective.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134491930309X?via\%3Dihub$\#$!}, author = {Wang, Ying and Chen, Bin and Chenghe Guan and Bo Zhang} } @article {1087966, title = {Gasification of coal and biomass as a net carbon-negative power source for environment-friendly electricity generation in China}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {116}, year = {2019}, pages = {8206-8213}, abstract = {Realizing the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 {\textdegree}C by the end of this century will most likely require deployment of carbon-negative technologies. It is particularly important that China, as the world{\textquoteright}s top carbon emitter, avoids being locked into carbon-intensive, coal-fired power-generation technologies and undertakes a smooth transition from high- to negative-carbon electricity production. We focus here on deploying a combination of coal and biomass energy to produce electricity in China using an integrated gasification cycle system combined with carbon capture and storage (CBECCS). Such a system will also reduce air pollutant emissions, thus contributing to China{\textquoteright}s near-term goal of improving air quality. We evaluate the bus-bar electricity-generation prices for CBECCS with mixing ratios of crop residues varying from 0 to 100\%, as well as associated costs for carbon mitigation and cobenefits for air quality. We find that CBECCS systems employing a crop residue ratio of 35\% could produce electricity with net-zero life-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases, with a levelized cost of electricity of no more than 9.2 US cents per kilowatt hour. A carbon price of approximately $52.0 per ton would make CBECCS cost-competitive with pulverized coal power plants. Therefore, our results provide critical insights for designing a CBECCS strategy in China to harness near-term air-quality cobenefits while laying the foundation for achieving negative carbon emissions in the long run.}, url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/04/02/1812239116}, author = {Lu, Xi and Liang Cao and Wang, Haikun and Peng, Wei and Xing, Jia and Wang, Shuxiao and Siyi Cai and Bo Shen and Yang, Qing and Nielsen, Chris P. and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1158771, title = {An improved approach to estimate direct rebound effect by incorporating energy efficiency: A revisit of China{\textquoteright}s industrial energy demand}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {80}, year = {2019}, pages = {720-730}, abstract = {The rebound effect, or the response to energy efficiency improvement, has drawn considerable attention from economists and policymakers. However, the magnitude remains quite controversial because of the differences in the definitions and methods being used. Originating from the definition of direct rebound effect, we develop an improved approach incorporating energy efficiency. The main advantages of the proposed approach are twofold. First, it enables us to estimate the demand elasticity of useful energy service with respect to energy service price. The estimates are more consistent with the definition of rebound effect and are more effective. Second, it decomposes direct rebound effect into substitution and output channels, enabling us to further understand the microeconomic mechanisms. Applying this method, we assess the direct energy rebound effect in China{\textquoteright}s industrial sectors. We find that the direct rebound effect for the industry is 37.0\%, and the substitution and output channels contribute to 13.1\% and 23.9\%, respectively. Substantial variations in the magnitudes and mechanisms occur by sector. For heavy industry, most energy rebound is induced by output expansion because of its sizeable cost decrease from efficiency improvements. Unlike heavy industry, most energy rebound in light industry comes from substituting energy service for other inputs because firms in light industry are more flexible in adjusting production inputs. Our results provide evidences for the importance of energy efficiency measures, and highlight the necessity of differentiated measures according to the sectoral characteristics.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319300696?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Hongxun Liu and Kerui Du and Jianglong Li} } @article {1161451, title = {The influence of dynamics and emissions changes on China{\textquoteright}s wintertime haze}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, volume = {58}, year = {2019}, pages = {1603-1611}, abstract = {

Haze days induced by aerosol pollution in North and East China have posed a persistent and growing problem over the past few decades. These events are particularly threatening to densely-populated cities such as Beijing. While the sources of this pollution are predominantly anthropogenic, natural climate variations may also play a role in allowing for atmospheric conditions conducive to formation of severe haze episodes over populated areas. Here, an investigation is conducted into the effects of changes in global dynamics and emissions on air quality in China{\textquoteright}s polluted regions using 35 simulations developed from the Community Earth Systems Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS) run over the period\ 1920-2100. It is shown that internal variability significantly modulates aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China; it takes roughly a decade for the forced response to balance the effects from internal variability even in China{\textquoteright}s most polluted regions. Random forest regressions are used to accurately model (R2\ \> 0.9) wintertime AOD using just climate oscillations, the month of the year and emissions. How different phases of each oscillation affect aerosol loading are projected using these regressions. AOD responses are identified for each oscillation, with particularly strong responses from El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). As ENSO can be projected a few months in advance and improvements in linear inverse modelling (LIM) may yield a similar predictability for the PDO, results of this study offer opportunities to improve the predictability of China{\textquoteright}s severe wintertime haze events, and to inform policy options that could mitigate subsequent health impacts.

}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0035.1}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Meng Gao and Shaojie Song and Patrick Ohiomoba and Alex Archibald and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1128227, title = {Modeling formulation and validation for accelerated simulation and flexibility assessment on large scale power systems under higher renewable penetrations}, journal = {Applied Energy}, volume = {237}, year = {2019}, pages = {145-154}, abstract = {Deploying high penetration of variable renewables represents a critical pathway for decarbonizing the power sector. Hydro power (including pumped-hydro), batteries, and fast responding thermal units are essential in providing system flexibility at elevated renewable penetration. How to quantify the merit of flexibility from these sources in accommodating variable renewables, and to evaluate the operational costs considering system flexibility constraints have been central challenges for future power system planning. This paper presents an improved linear formulation of the unit commitment model adopting unit grouping techniques to expedite evaluation of the curtailment of renewables and operational costs for large-scale power systems. All decision variables in this formulation are continuous, and all chronological constraints are formulated subsequently. Tested based on actual data from a regional power system in China, the computational speed of the model is more than 20,000 times faster than the rigorous unit commitment model, with less than 1\% difference in results. Hourly simulation for an entire year takes less than 3 min. The results demonstrate strong potential to apply the proposed model to long term planning related issues, such as flexibility assessment, wind curtailment analysis, and operational cost evaluation, which could set a methodological foundation for evaluating the optimal combination of wind, solar and hydro investments.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918318683}, author = {Han, Xingning and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B. and Liao, Shiwu and Nielsen, Chris P. and Wen, Jinyu} } @article {1142930, title = {Possible heterogeneous hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) chemistry in northern China winter haze and implications for rapid sulfate formation}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {19}, year = {2019}, pages = {1357-1371}, abstract = {The chemical mechanisms responsible for rapid sulfate production, an important driver of winter haze formation in northern China, remain unclear. Here, we propose a potentially important heterogeneous hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) chemical mechanism. Through analyzing field measurements with aerosol mass spectrometry, we show evidence for a possible significant existence in haze aerosols of organosulfur primarily as HMS, misidentified as sulfate in previous observations. We estimate that HMS can account for up to about one-third of the sulfate concentrations unexplained by current air quality models. Heterogeneous production of HMS by SO2 and formaldehyde is favored under northern China winter haze conditions due to high aerosol water content, moderately acidic pH values, high gaseous precursor levels, and low temperature. These analyses identify an unappreciated importance of formaldehyde in secondary aerosol formation and call for more research on sources and on the chemistry of formaldehyde in northern China winter.}, url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/1357/2019/}, author = {S.J. Song and M. Gao and W.Q. Xu and Y.L. Sun and D.R. Worsnop and J.T. Jayne and Y.Z. Zhang and L. Zhu and M. Li and Z. Zhou and C.L. Cheng and Y.B. Lv and Wang, Y. and W. Peng and X.B. Xu and N. Lin and Wang, Y.X. and Wang, S.X. and Munger, J. W. and D. Jacob and McElroy, M.B.} } @article {1201736, title = {The potential of photovoltaics to power the Belt and Road Initiative}, journal = {Joule}, volume = {3}, year = {2019}, note = {Chen et al. is the cover article of this issue of Joule.}, pages = {1895-1912}, abstract = {Construction of carbon-intensive energy infrastructure is well underway under the Belt \& Road Initiative (BRI), challenging the global climate target. Regionally abundant solar power could provide an alternative for electricity generation. An integrative spatial model was developed to evaluate the technical potential of solar photovoltaic power. The influence of impacting factors was quantified systematically on an hourly basis. Results suggest that the electricity potential for the BRI region reaches 448.9 PWh annually, 41.3 times the regional demand for electricity in 2016. Tapping 3.7\% of the potential through deploying 7.8 TW capacity could satisfy the regional electricity demand projected for 2030, requiring an investment of approximately 11.2 trillion 2017\ USD and a commitment in land area of 88,426\ km2, approximately 0.9\% of China{\textquoteright}s total. Countries endowed with 70.7\% of the overall potential consume only 30.1\% of regional electricity. The imbalance underscores the advantage of regional cooperation and investments in interconnected grids.}, url = {https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30275-2}, author = {Shi Chen and Lu, Xi and Yufei Miao and Deng, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P. and Noah Elbot and Yuanchen Wang and Kathryn G. Logan and McElroy, Michael B. and Hao, Jiming} } @article {1229637, title = {Quantifying global CH4 and N2O footprints}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {251}, year = {2019}, pages = {109566}, abstract = {This study aims to quantify global CH4\ and N2O footprints in 2012 in terms of 181 economies and 20 world regions based on the official national emission accounts from the UNFCCC database and the global multi-region input-output accounts from the EORA database. Global total CH4\ and N2O emissions increased by 15.0\% in 2012 compared to 1990, mainly driven by increasing demands of agricultural and energy products. Mainland China, Western Europe, the USA, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa were identified as the largest five CH4\ footprint contributors (55.6\% of the global total), while Mainland China, the USA, Western Europe, Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa as the largest N2O footprint contributors (59.2\% of the global total). In most developed economies, the CH4\ and N2O footprints were much higher than their emissions on the production side, but opposite picture is observed in emerging economies. 36.4\% and 24.8\% of the global CH4\ and N2O emissions in 2012 were associated with international trade, respectively. Substantial energy-related CH4\ and agricultural CH4\ and N2O emissions were transferred from developed countries to developing countries. Several nations within Kyoto targets have reduced their CH4\ and N2O emissions significantly between 1990 and 2012, but the generally-believed success is challenged when viewing from the consumption side. Mainland China, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Middle East and India witnessed prominent increase of CH4\ and N2O footprints in the same period. The structure and spatial patterns of global CH4\ and N2O footprints shed light on the role of consumption-side actions and international cooperation for future non-CO2\ GHG emission reduction.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479719312848$\#$!}, author = {Wenjie Tian and Xudong Wu and Rong Ma and Bo Zhang} } @article {1167148, title = {Renewable bio-jet fuel production for aviation: a review}, journal = {Fuel}, volume = {254}, year = {2019}, pages = {115599}, abstract = {

Due to excessive greenhouse gas emissions and high dependence on traditional petroleum jet fuel, the sustainable development of the aviation industry has drawn increasing attention worldwide. One of the most promising strategies is to develop and industrialize alternative aviation fuels produced from renewable resources, e.g. biomass. Renewable bio-jet fuel has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions over their life cycle, which make bio-jet fuels an attractive substitution for aviation fuels. This paper provided an overview on the conversion technologies, economic assessment, environmental influence and development status of bio-jet fuels. The results suggested that hydrogenated esters and fatty acids, and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis can be the most promising technologies for bio-jet fuels production in near term. Future works, such as searching for more suitable feedstock, improving competitiveness for alternative jet fuels, meeting emission reduction targets in large-scale production and making measures for the indirect impact are needed for further investigation. The large-scale deployment of bio-jet fuels could achieve significant potentials of both bio-jet fuels production and CO2 emissions reduction based on future available biomass feedstock.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236119309433}, author = {Hongjian Wei and Wenzhi Liu and Chen, Xinyu and Yang, Qing and Jiashuo Li and Chen, Hanping} } @article {1141758, title = {Seasonal prediction of Indian wintertime aerosol pollution using the Ocean Memory Effect}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {5}, year = {2019}, abstract = {As China makes every effort to control air pollution, India emerges as the world{\textquoteright}s most polluted country, receiving worldwide attention with frequent winter (boreal) haze extremes. In this study, we found that the interannual variability of wintertime aerosol pollution over northern India is regulated mainly by a combination of El Ni{\~n}o and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Both El Ni{\~n}o sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and AAO-induced Indian Ocean Meridional Dipole SST anomalies can persist from autumn to winter, offering prospects for a prewinter forecast of wintertime aerosol pollution over northern India. We constructed a multivariable regression model incorporating El Ni{\~n}o and AAO indices for autumn to predict wintertime AOD. The prediction exhibits a high degree of consistency with observation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78 (P \< 0.01). This statistical model could allow the Indian government to forecast aerosol pollution conditions in winter and accordingly improve plans for pollution control.}, url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aav4157}, author = {Meng Gao and Sherman, Peter and Shaojie Song and Yueyue Yu and Zhiwei Wu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1138525, title = {Spatial distribution of high-rise buildings and its relationship to public transit development in Shanghai}, journal = {Transport Policy}, volume = {81}, year = {2019}, pages = {371-380}, abstract = {

The relationship between dense urban development, often represented by high-rise buildings, and its location vis-{\`a}-vis metro stations reflects the connection between transportation infrastructure and land use intensity. Existing literature on high-rise buildings has focused either on developed countries or on cities where urban and public transit developments have occurred in an uncoordinated manner. This paper examines the following questions: What is the spatial proximity and spatial correlation between high-rise buildings and metro stations in different stages of development in various parts of the city? What were some of the factors that resulted in the observed patterns? The results suggest that buildings constructed after 2000 and buildings within the urban core/Shanghai Proper districts had a greater spatial proximity to the metro stations. However, the spatial correlation, measured by the number of high-rise buildings within a 500-meter buffer from the nearest metro stations and the time-distance to these stations, is stronger in the outer districts than in the urban core. These differences can be accounted for by Shanghai{\textquoteright}s stages of urban development, the existence of metro infrastructure when high-rise development was undertaken, and the city{\textquoteright}s land use policies. This case study sheds light on the relationship between high-density developments and metro systems in other large cities in China and other developing countries where rapid urban development coincides with the establishment of a comprehensive public transit system.

}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.09.004}, author = {Chenghe Guan} } @article {1236115, title = {Thermodynamic modeling suggests declines in water uptake and acidity of inorganic aerosols in Beijing winter haze events during 2014/2015{\textendash}2018/2019}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology Letters}, volume = {6}, year = {2019}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {752-760}, abstract = {During recent years, aggressive air pollution mitigation measures in northern China have resulted in considerable changes in gas and aerosol chemical composition. But it is unclear whether aerosol water content and acidity respond to these changes. The two parameters have been shown to affect heterogeneous production of winter haze aerosols. Here, we performed thermodynamic equilibrium modeling using chemical and meteorological data observed in urban Beijing for four recent winter seasons and quantified the changes in the mass growth factor and pH of inorganic aerosols. We focused on high relative humidity (\>60\%) conditions when submicron particles have been shown to be in the liquid state. From 2014/2015 to 2018/2019, the modeled mass growth factor decreased by about 9\%{\textendash}17\% due to changes in aerosol compositions (more nitrate and less sulfate and chloride), and the modeled pH increased by about 0.3{\textendash}0.4 unit mainly due to rising ammonia. A buffer equation is derived from semivolatile ammonia partitioning, which helps understand the sensitivity of pH to meteorological and chemical variables. The findings provide implications for evaluating the potential chemical feedback in secondary aerosol production and the effectiveness of ammonia control as a measure to alleviate winter haze.}, url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.estlett.9b00621}, author = {Shaojie Song and Athanasios Nenes and Meng Gao and Yuzhong Zhang and Pengfei Liu and Jingyuan Shao and Dechao Ye and Weiqi Xu and Lu Lei and Yele Sun and Baoxian Liu and Wang, Shuxiao and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1231119, title = {Transition from non-commercial to commercial energy in rural China: Insights from the accessibility and affordability}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {127}, year = {2019}, pages = {392-403}, abstract = {Rural components are integral parts of China{\textquoteright}s economy, and hundreds of millions of China{\textquoteright}s residents still live in\ rural areas. Rural residents heavily depend on non-commercial energy due to the inaccessibility and unaffordability of\ commercial energy. Conventional use of solid\ biomass\ fuels threatens\ public health\ as well as environmental and ecological sustainability. Thus,\ rural energy\ transition must be promoted. By using a new\ dataset, we show China{\textquoteright}s rural energy transition to gain insights on where, how, and why this transition occurs in rural households. Unlike previous views, we find that after considering non-commercial energy, the per\ capita consumption\ of rural\ residential energy\ is considerably larger than that of urban counterparts. Moreover, migrations from rural to\ urban areas\ decrease rather than increase residential\ energy consumption. Furthermore, rural energy transition from low to high quality depresses energy consumption. Our results demonstrate how accessibility and\ affordability\ affect the fuel preferences of rural residents, thereby enabling us to identify the mechanisms of rural energy transition. We provide some insights and policy implications on the routes of China{\textquoteright}s rural energy transition, which may be further extended to other emerging and\ developing countries\ due to their similar rural energy use.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518308218}, author = {Jianglong Li and Chang Chen and Hongxun Liu} } @article {1145699, title = {Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016}, journal = {Journal of Risk \& Uncertainty}, volume = {58}, year = {2019}, pages = {167{\textendash}186}, abstract = {We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the {\textquotedblleft}value per statistical life{\textquotedblright} or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu, China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criteria that willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents) and test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in real income implies an income elasticity of about 3.0. Our results suggest that estimates of VSL from stated-preference studies in which WTP is not close to proportionate to the stated risk reduction may be biased downward by a factor of two or more, and that VSL is likely to grow rapidly in a population with strong economic growth, which implies that environmental-health, safety, and other policies should become increasingly protective.}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-019-09305-5}, author = {James K. Hammitt and Fangli Geng and Guo, Xiaoqi and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {1141771, title = {Outsourcing natural resource requirements within China}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {228}, year = {2018}, pages = {292-302}, abstract = {

Consumption demands are final drivers for the extraction and allocation of natural resources. This paper investigates demand-driven natural resource requirements and spatial outsourcing within China in 2012 by using the latest multi-regional input-output model.\ Exergy\ is adopted as a common metric for natural resources input. The total domestic resource exergy requirements amounted to 125.5 EJ, of which the eastern area contributed the largest share of 44.5\%, followed by the western area (23.9\%), the central area (23.0\%) and the northeastern area (8.6\%). Investment was the leading final demand category, accounting for 52.9\% (66.4 EJ) of national total embodied resource use (ERU). The total trade volumes of embodied resource were equivalent to 69.6\% of the total direct resource input (DRI), mostly transferred from the central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Xinjiang to the eastern regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shanghai. The northeastern and eastern areas had physical net imports of 1213.5 PJ and 38452.6 PJ, while the central and western inland areas had physical net exports of 6364.5 PJ and 33301.5 PJ, respectively. Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong had prominent ERUs which respectively were 101.6, 12.6, 11.7, 8.4 and 4.3 times of their DRIs. The ERUs of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia and Guizhou were equal to only 17.6\%, 25.3\%, 27.9\%, 46.0\% and 50.2\% of their DRIs, respectively. Regional uneven development resulted in imbalanced resource requirements across China. The findings can provide a deep understanding of China{\textquoteright}s resource-driven economic development mode, and contribute to reducing regional resource footprints and their environment outcomes under the {\textquotedblleft}new normal economy{\textquotedblright}.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718309848?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Yaowen Zhang and Ling Shao and Xudong Sun and Mengyao Han and Xueli Zhao and Jing Meng and Bo Zhang and Han Qiao} } @article {1394322, title = {Socioeconomic determinants of China{\textquoteright}s growing CH4 emissions}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {228}, year = {2018}, pages = {103-116}, abstract = {Reducing CH4\ emissions is a major global challenge, owing to the world-wide rise in emissions and concentration of CH4\ in the atmosphere, especially in the past decade. China has been the greatest contributor to global anthropogenic CH4\ emissions for a long time, but current understanding towards its growing emissions is insufficient. This paper aims to link China{\textquoteright}s CH4\ emissions during 2005{\textendash}2012 to their socioeconomic determinants by combining input-output models with structural\ decomposition analysis\ from both the consumption and income perspectives. Results show that changes in household consumption and income were the leading drivers of the CH4\ growth in China, while changes in efficiency remained the strongest factor offsetting CH4\ emissions. After 2007, with the\ global financial crisis\ and economic stimulus plans, embodied emissions from exports plunged but those from capital formation increased rapidly. The enabled emissions in employee compensation increased steadily over time, whereas emissions induced from firms{\textquoteright} net surplus decreased gradually, reflecting the reform on income distribution. In addition, at the\ sectoral\ level, consumption and capital formation respectively were the greatest drivers of embodied CH4\ emission changes from agriculture and manufacturing, while employee compensation largely determined the enabled emission changes across all industrial sectors. The growth of CH4\ emissions in China was profoundly affected by the\ macroeconomic\ situation and the changes of economic structure. Examining economic drivers of anthropogenic CH4emissions can help formulate comprehensive mitigation policies and actions associated with economic production, supply and consumption.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.08.110}, author = {Rong Ma and Chen, Bin and Chenghe Guan and Jing Meng and Bo Zhang} } @article {1282212, title = {Two-stage optimal scheduling of electric vehicle charging based on transactive control.}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, pages = {2948-2958}, url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8315146?reload=true}, author = {Zhaoxi Liu and Qiuwei Wu and Kang Ma and Mohammad Shahidehpour and Yusheng Xue and Shaojun Huang} } @article {1067161, title = {Accessibility, urban form, and property value: Toward a sustainable urban spatial structure}, journal = {Journal of Transport and Land Use}, volume = {11}, year = {2018}, pages = {1057-1080}, abstract = {The effects of metro system development and urban form on housing prices highly depend on the spatial temporal conditions of urban neighborhoods. However, scholars have not yet comprehensively examined these interactions at a neighborhood-scale. This study assesses metro access, urban form, and property value at both the district- and neighborhood-level. The study area is Pudong, Shanghai, where metro system development has coincided with rapid urban growth. Two hundred and seventy-nine neighborhoods from 13 districts of Shanghai are randomly selected for the district-level investigation and 31 neighborhoods from Pudong are selected for the neighborhood-level investigation. The analysis of variance shows that metro access is more positively correlated to property price in Pudong than other districts. The Pearson correlation, principle component, and ordinary least square regression analyses show that while accessibility attributes have a positive influence on housing prices, neighborhood characteristics also exhibit a pronounced impact on property price change over time. This study extends our knowledge on how metro system development interacts with landuse efficiency and discusses planning policies that correspond to different stages of development.}, url = {https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/1318/1162}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Peiser, Richard B.} } @article {1087866, title = {Assessing biotic contributions to CO2 fluxes in northern China using the Vegetation, Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM-CHINA) and observations from 2005 to 2009}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {15}, year = {2018}, pages = {6713-6729}, abstract = {Accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal distribution of the biological component of CO2 surface{\textendash}atmosphere exchange is necessary to improve top-down constraints on China{\textquoteright}s anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We provide hourly fluxes of CO2 as net ecosystem exchange (NEE; {\textmu}mol CO2 m-2 s-1) on a grid by adapting the Vegetation, Photosynthesis, and Respiration Model (VPRM) to the eastern half of China for the time period from 2005 to 2009; the minimal empirical parameterization of the VPRM-CHINA makes it well suited for inverse modeling approaches. This study diverges from previous VPRM applications in that it is applied at a large scale to China{\textquoteright}s ecosystems for the first time, incorporating a novel processing framework not previously applied to existing VPRM versions. In addition, the VPRM-CHINA model prescribes methods for addressing dual-cropping regions that have two separate growing-season modes applied to the same model grid cell. We evaluate the VPRM-CHINA performance during the growing season and compare to other biospheric models. We calibrate the VPRM-CHINA with ChinaFlux and FluxNet data and scale up regionally using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model v3.6.1 meteorology and MODIS surface reflectances. When combined with an anthropogenic emissions model in a Lagrangian particle transport framework, we compare the ability of VPRM-CHINA relative to an ensemble mean of global hourly flux models (NASA CMS {\textendash} Carbon Monitoring System) to reproduce observations made at a site in northern China. The measurements are heavily influenced by the northern China administrative region. Modeled hourly time series using vegetation fluxes prescribed by VPRM-CHINA exhibit low bias relative to measurements during the May{\textendash}September growing season. Compared to NASA CMS subset over the study region, VPRM-CHINA agrees significantly better with measurements. NASA CMS consistently underestimates regional uptake in the growing season. We find that during the peak growing season, when the heavily cropped North China Plain significantly influences measurements, VPRM-CHINA models a CO2 uptake signal comparable in magnitude to the modeled anthropogenic signal. In addition to demonstrating efficacy as a low-bias prior for top-down CO2 inventory optimization studies using ground-based measurements, high spatiotemporal resolution models such as the VPRM are critical for interpreting retrievals from global CO2 remote-sensing platforms such as OCO-2 and OCO-3 (planned). Depending on the satellite time of day and season of crossover, efforts to interpret the relative contribution of the vegetation and anthropogenic components to the measured signal are critical in key emitting regions such as northern China {\textendash} where the magnitude of the vegetation CO2 signal is shown to be equivalent to the anthropogenic signal.}, url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/6713/2018/}, author = {Dayalu, Archana and William Munger and Steven Wofsy and Wang, Yuxuan and Thomas Nehrkorn and Zhao, Yu and Michael McElroy and Chris Nielsen and Kristina Luus} } @article {1394320, title = {Can urban design intervention at scale contribute to affordable housing in dense cities? Three paradigms of spatial strategy in Mumbai, India}, journal = {Urban Design}, year = {2018}, pages = {32-43}, url = {http://urbandesign.tsinghuajournals.com}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Rahul Mehrotra} } @article {1080496, title = {Carbon tax for achieving China{\textquoteright}s NDC: Simulations of some design features using a CGE model}, journal = {Climate Change Economics}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, abstract = {China has set a goal of reducing its CO2 intensity of GDP by 60{\textendash}65\% from the 2005 level in 2030 as its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Climate Change Agreement. While the government is considering series of market and nonmarket measures to achieve its target, this study assesses the economic consequences if the target were to meet through a market mechanism, carbon tax. We used a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China for the analysis. The study shows that the level of carbon tax to achieve the NDC target would be different depending on its design features. An increasing carbon tax that starts at a small rate in 2015 and rises to a level to meet the NDC target in 2030 would cause smaller GDP loss than the carbon tax with a constant rate would do. The GDP loss due to the carbon tax would be smaller when the tax revenue is utilized to cut existing distortionary taxes than when it is transferred to households as a lump-sum rebate.}, url = {https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007818500069}, author = {Timilsina, Govinda R. and Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S.} } @article {1087981, title = {Changing carbon content of Chinese coal and implications for emissions of CO2}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {194}, year = {2018}, pages = {150-157}, abstract = {

The changing carbon content of\ coal\ consumed in China between 2002 and 2012 is quantified using information from the power sector. The carbon content decreased by 7.7\% over this interval, the decrease particularly pronounced between 2007 and 2009. Inferences with respect to the changing carbon content of coal and the oxidation rate for its consumption, combined with the recent information on coal use in China, are employed to evaluate the trend in emissions of CO2. Emissions are estimated to have increased by 158\% between 2002 and 2012, from 3.9 Gt y-1 to 9.2 Gt y-1. Our estimated emissions for 2005 are notably consistent with data reported by China in its {\textquotedblleft}Second National Communication{\textquotedblright} to the UN (NDRC, 2012) and significantly higher than the estimation published recently in Nature. The difference is attributed, among other factors, to the assumption of a constant carbon content of coal in the latter study. The results indicate that CO2\ emissions of China in 2005 reported by Second National Communication are more reliable to serve as the baseline for China{\textquoteright}s future carbon commitments (e.g. those in Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC). Discrepancies between national and provincial statistics on\ coal production\ and consumption are investigated and attributed primarily to anomalous reporting on interprovincial trade in four heavily industrialized provinces.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618314690}, author = {Chen, Xinyu and Huang, Junling and Yang, Qing and Nielsen, Chris P. and Dongbo Shi and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1137665, title = {Consumption-based accounting of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future}, volume = {6}, year = {2018}, pages = {1349-1363}, abstract = {

Global anthropogenic CH4\ emissions have witnessed a rapid increase in the last decade. However, how this increase is connected with its socioeconomic drivers has not yet been explored. In this paper, we highlight the impacts of final demand and international trade on global anthropogenic CH4\ emissions based on the consumption-based accounting principle. We find that household consumption was the largest final demand category, followed by fixed capital formation and government consumption. The position and function of nations and major economies to act on the structure and spatial patterns of global CH4\ emissions were systematically clarified. Substantial geographic shifts of CH4emissions during 2000-2012 revealed the prominent impact of international trade. In 2012, about half of global CH4\ emissions were embodied in international trade, of which 77.8\% were from intermediate trade and 22.2\% from final trade. Mainland China was the largest exporter of embodied CH4\ emissions, while the USA was the largest importer. Developed economies such as Western Europe, the USA and Japan were major net receivers of embodied emission transfer, mainly from developing countries. CH4emission footprints of nations were closely related to their human development indexes (HDIs) and per capita gross domestic products (GDPs). Our findings could help to improve current understanding of global anthropogenic CH4\ emission increases, and to pinpoint regional and sectoral hotspots for possible emission mitigation in the entire supply chains from production to consumption.

}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EF000917}, author = {Bo Zhang and Xueli Zhao and Xiaofang Wu and Mengyao Han and Chenghe Guan and Shaojie Song} } @article {1147056, title = {Contribution of hydroxymethane sulfonate to ambient particulate matter: A potential explanation for high particulate sulfur during severe winter haze in Beijing}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {45}, year = {2018}, pages = {11969-11979}, abstract = {

PM 2.5 during severe winter haze in Beijing, China, has reached levels as high as 880μg/m3, with sulfur compounds contributing significantly to PM 2.5 composition. This sulfur has been traditionally assumed to be sulfate, although atmospheric chemistry models are unable to account for such large sulfate enhancements under dim winter conditions. Using a 1-D model, we show that well-characterized but previously overlooked chemistry of aqueous-phase HCHO and S(IV) in cloud droplets to form a S(IV)-HCHO adduct, hydroxymethane sulfonate, may explain high particulate sulfur in wintertime Beijing. We also demonstrate in the laboratory that methods of ion chromatography typically used to measure ambient particulates easily misinterpret hydroxymethane sulfonate as sulfate. Our findings suggest that HCHO and not SO2 has been the limiting factor in many haze events in Beijing and that to reduce severe winter pollution in this region, policymakers may need to address HCHO sources such as transportation.

}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018GL079309}, author = {Jonathan M. Moch and Eleni Dovrou and Loretta J. Mickley and Frank N. Keutsch and Yuan Cheng and Daniel J. Jacob and Jingkun Jiang and Meng Li and J. William Munger and Xiaohui Qiao and Zhang, Qiang} } @article {1115045, title = {Environmental fiscal reform and the double dividend: evidence from a dynamic general equilibrium model}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, abstract = {An environmental fiscal reform (EFR) represents a transition of a taxation system toward one based in environmental taxation, rather than on taxation of capital, labor, or consumption. It differs from an environmental tax reform (ETR) in that an EFR also includes a reform of subsidies which counteract environmental policy. This research details different ways in which an EFR is not only possible but also a good option that provides economic and environmental benefits. We have developed a detailed dynamic CGE model examining 101 industries and commodities in Spain, with an energy and an environmental extension comprising 31 pollutant emissions, in order to simulate the economic and environmental effects of an EFR. The reform focuses on 39 industries related to the energy, water, transport and waste sectors. We simulate an increase in taxes and a reduction on subsidies for these industries and at the same time we use new revenues to reduce labor, capital and consumption taxes. All revenue recycling options provide both economic and environmental benefits, suggesting that the {\textquotedblleft}double dividend{\textquotedblright} hypothesis can be achieved. After three to four years after implementing an EFR, GDP is higher than the base case, hydrocarbons consumption declines and all analyzed pollutants show a reduction.}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/2/501/htm}, author = {Jaume Freire-Gonz{\'a}lez and Ho, Mun S.} } @article {1109081, title = {Fine particle pH for Beijing winter haze as inferred from different thermodynamic equilibrium models}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {18}, year = {2018}, pages = {7423-7438}, abstract = {pH is an important property of aerosol particles but is difficult to measure directly. Several studies have estimated the pH values for fine particles in North China winter haze using thermodynamic models (i.e., E-AIM and ISORROPIA) and ambient measurements. The reported pH values differ widely, ranging from close to 0 (highly acidic) to as high as 7 (neutral). In order to understand the reason for this discrepancy, we calculated pH values using these models with different assumptions with regard to model inputs and particle phase states. We find that the large discrepancy is due primarily to differences in the model assumptions adopted in previous studies. Calculations using only aerosol phase composition as inputs (i.e., reverse mode) are sensitive to the measurement errors of ionic species and inferred pH values exhibit a bimodal distribution with peaks between -2 and 2 and between 7 and 10. Calculations using total (gas plus aerosol phase) measurements as inputs (i.e., forward mode) are affected much less by the measurement errors, and results are thus superior to those obtained from the reverse mode calculations. Forward mode calculations in this and previous studies collectively indicate a moderately acidic condition (pH from about 4 to about 5) for fine particles in North China winter haze, indicating further that ammonia plays an important role in determining this property. The differences in pH predicted by the forward mode E-AIM and ISORROPIA calculations may be attributed mainly to differences in estimates of activity coefficients for hydrogen ions. The phase state assumed, which can be either stable (solid plus liquid) or metastable (only liquid), does not significantly impact pH predictions of ISORROPIA.}, url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/7423/2018/acp-18-7423-2018.html}, author = {Shaojie Song and Meng Gao and Weiqi Xu and Jingyuan Shao and Guoliang Shi and Wang, Shuxiao and Wang, Yuxuan and Yele Sun and Michael McElroy} } @article {1115772, title = {Hybrid life-cycle assessment for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a typical biomass gasification power plant in China}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {205}, year = {2018}, pages = {661-671}, abstract = {

Among biomass energy technologies which are treated as the promising way to mitigate critical energy crisis and global climate change, biomass gasification plays a key role given to its gaseous fuels especially syngas for distributed power plant. However, a system analysis for the energy saving and greenhouse gas emissions abatement potentials of gasification system has been directed few attentions. This study presents a system analysis that combines process and input-output analyses of GHG emissions and energy costs throughout the full chain of activities associated with biomass gasification. Incorporating agricultural production, industrial process and wastewater treatment which is always ignored, the energy inputs in life cycle are accounted for the first commercial biomass gasification power plant in China. Results show that the non-renewable energy cost and GHG emission intensity of the biomass gasification system are 0.163 MJ/MJ and 0.137 kg CO2-eq/MJ respectively, which reaffirm its advantages over coal-fired power plants in clean energy and environmental terms. Compared with other biomass energy processes, gasification performs well as its non-renewable energy cost and CO2 intensity are in the central ranges of those for all of these technologies. Construction of the plant is an important factor in the process{\textquoteright}s non-renewable energy consumption, contributing about 44.48\% of total energy use. Wastewater treatment is the main contributor to GHG emissions. The biomass gasification and associated wastewater treatment technologies have critical influence on the sustainability and renewability of biomass gasification. The results provide comprehensive analysis for biomass gasification performance and technology improvement potential in regulating biomass development policies for aiming to achieve sustainability globally.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618327550}, author = {Yang, Qing and Hewen Zhou and Zhang, Xiaoyan and Nielsen, Chris P. and Jiashuo Li and Lu, Xi and Yang, Haiping and Chen, Hanping} } @article {1131529, title = {The impact of power generation emissions on ambient PM2.5 pollution and human health in China and India}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {121, Part 1}, year = {2018}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {250-259}, abstract = {

Emissions from power plants in China and India contain a myriad of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, PM<=2.5 micrometers in diameter) precursors, posing significant health risks among large, densely settled populations. Studies isolating the contributions of various source classes and geographic regions are limited in China and India, but such information could be helpful for policy makers attempting to identify efficient mitigation strategies. We quantified the impact of power generation emissions on annual mean PM2.5 concentrations using the state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) in China and India. Evaluations using nationwide surface measurements show the model performs reasonably well. We calculated province-specific annual changes in mortality and life expectancy due to power generation emissions generated PM2.5 using the Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model, recently updated IER parameters from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015, population data, and the World Health Organization (WHO) life tables for China and India. We estimate that 15 million (95\% Confidence Interval (CI): 10 to 21 million) years of life lost can be avoided in China each year and 11 million (95\% CI: 7 to 15 million) in India by eliminating power generation emissions. Priorities in upgrading existing power generating technologies should be given to Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan provinces in China, and Uttar Pradesh state in India due to their dominant contributions to the current health risks.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018313369?dgcid=rss_sd_all}, author = {Meng Gao and Gufran Beig and Shaojie Song and Hongliang Zhang and Jianlin Hu and Qi Ying and Fengchao Liang and Liu, Yang and Wang, Haikun and Xiao Lu and Tong Zhu and Gregory Carmichael and Nielsen, Chris P. and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {613321, title = {Impacts of fleet types and charging modes for electric vehicles on emissions under different penetrations of wind power}, journal = {Nature Energy}, volume = {3}, year = {2018}, month = {2016}, pages = {413-421}, abstract = {Current Chinese policy promotes the development of both electricity-propelled vehicles and carbon-free sources of power. Concern has been expressed that electric vehicles on average may emit more CO2\ and conventional pollutants in China. Here, we explore the environmental implications of investments in different types of electric vehicle (public buses, taxis and private light-duty vehicles) and different modes (fast or slow) for charging under a range of different wind penetration levels. To do this, we take Beijing in 2020 as a case study and employ hourly simulation of vehicle charging behaviour and power system operation. Assuming the slow-charging option, we find that investments in electric private light-duty vehicles can result in an effective reduction in the emission of CO2\ at several levels of wind penetration. The fast-charging option, however, is counter-productive. Electrifying buses and taxis offers the most effective option to reduce emissions of NOx, a major precursor for air pollution.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-018-0133-0}, author = {Chen, Xinyu and Xu, Zhiwei and Nielsen, Chris P and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1147672, title = {Industrial water pollution discharge taxes in China: A multi-sector dynamic analysis}, journal = {Water}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, pages = {1742}, abstract = {We explore how water pollution policy reforms in China could reduce industrial wastewater pollution with minimum adverse impact on GDP growth. We use a multi-sector dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, jointly developed by Harvard University and Tsinghua University, to examine the long-term impact of pollution taxes. A firm-level dataset of wastewater and COD discharge is compiled and aggregated to provide COD-intensities for 22 industrial sectors. We simulated the impact of 4 different sets of Pigovian taxes on the output of these industrial sectors, where the tax rate depends on the COD-output intensity. In the baseline low rate of COD tax, COD discharge is projected to rise from 36 million tons in 2018 to 48 million in 2030, while GDP grows at 6.9\% per year. We find that raising the COD tax by 8 times will lower COD discharge by 1.6\% by 2030, while a high 20-times tax will cut it by 4.0\%. The most COD-intensive sectors{\textemdash}textile goods, apparel, and food products{\textemdash}have the biggest reduction in output and emissions. The additional tax revenue is recycled by cutting existing taxes, including taxes on profits, leading to higher investment. This shift from consumption to investment leads to a slightly higher GDP over time.}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/12/1742/htm}, author = {Xiaolin Guo and Ho, Mun Sing and Liangzhi You and Cao, Jing and Yu Fang and Taotao Tu and Yang Hong} } @article {1125703, title = {Life cycle water use of a biomass-based pyrolysis polygeneration system in China}, journal = {Applied Energy}, volume = {224}, year = {2018}, pages = {469-480}, abstract = {

Water is essential for bioenergy production. Characterized as low carbon technology, crop-based bioenergy technology witnesses rapid development, inevitably putting pressure on global water resources. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully assess bioenergy technology{\textquoteright}s overall impact on scarce water source for a sustainable bioenergy future. In this regard, this study aims to evaluate the life cycle water use of bioenergy from agricultural residues via the first pilot moving-bed pyrolysis polygeneration system in China. By using a tiered hybrid life cycle assessment, both direct and indirect water use are calculated. Results show life cycle water use is 3.89 L H2O/MJ and agricultural process dominates the total water use. Scenarios analysis shows different feedstock allocation ratios during agricultural production have striking influence on water use intensity. In addition, the choice of feedstock is another important influential factor. Under the 2020 Scenario in China{\textquoteright}s 13th Five Year Plan, if all the bioenergy target could be met by polygeneration the estimated annual water use will be 6.6 billion m3, in magnitude up to around ten times the total water consumption in Denmark in 2013. In global scenario of potential feedstock available in 2060, the estimated water use for bioenergy produced by polygeneration will be 179-369 billion m3. Although the water use intensity of bioenergy production from agricultural residues by polygeneration is lower than that for other biomass conversion pathways, it is still higher than water intensity of conventional fossil energy products. Large-scale bioenergy production will have macroscopic effects on water demand. Finally, suggestions such as selecting high water-efficient biomass feedstock and reinforcing water-saving irrigation management to minimize water use in agriculture stage are proposed.

}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918307025?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Yang, Qing and Ji Liang and Jiashuo Li and Yang, Haiping and Chen, Hanping} } @article {1087946, title = {The missing money problem: incorporation of increased resources from wind in a representative US power market}, journal = {Renewable Energy}, volume = {126}, year = {2018}, pages = {126-136}, abstract = {The paper considers opportunities to reduce emissions of CO2\ through increases in commitments to wind in a representative US power market. A model is applied to simulate market operations for different wind levels focusing on implications of the reduction in clearing prices arising due to increasing inputs of zero marginal cost power from wind, a dilemma referred to as the missing money problem. The resulting decrease in income poses problems for existing thermal and nuclear generating systems, at the same time making investments in wind uneconomic in the absence offsetting policy interventions. Two options are considered to subsidize cost: an investment credit (IC) or a subsidy on production (PC). The dilemma could be addressed also with a carbon tax targeted to increase income. It is assumed that the cost associated with the IC and PC options should be borne by the consumer, offsetting benefits from lower wholesale prices. It is assumed further that income from the carbon tax should be rebated to the consumer offsetting related increases in clearing prices. IC and PC options offer opportunities to reduce emissions at low or even negative net costs to the consumer. Higher costs are associated with the option of a carbon tax.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148118302817}, author = {McElroy, Michael B. and Chen, Xinyu and Yawen Deng} } @article {1115492, title = {Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in China 2012: Inventory and supply chain analysis}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future}, volume = {6}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Reliable inventory information is critical in informing emission mitigation efforts. Using the latest officially released emission data, which is production based, we take a consumption perspective to estimate the non-CO2\ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China in 2012. The non-CO2\ GHG emissions, which cover CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6, amounted to 2003.0 Mt. CO2-eq (including 1871.9 Mt. CO2-eq from economic activities), much larger than the total CO2\ emissions in some developed countries. Urban consumption (30.1\%), capital formation (28.2\%), and exports (20.6\%) derived approximately four fifths of the total embodied emissions in final demand. Furthermore, the results from structural path analysis help identify critical embodied emission paths and key economic sectors in supply chains for mitigating non-CO2\ GHG emissions in Chinese economic systems. The top 20 paths were responsible for half of the national total embodied emissions. Several industrial sectors such as\ Construction, Production and Supply of Electricity and Steam,\ Manufacture of Food and Tobacco\ and\ Manufacture of Chemicals,\ and Chemical Products\ played as the important transmission channels. Examining both production- and consumption-based non-CO2\ GHG emissions will enrich our understanding of the influences of industrial positions, final consumption demands, and trades on national non-CO2\ GHG emissions by considering the comprehensive abatement potentials in the supply chains.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000707/full}, author = {Bo Zhang and Yaowen Zhang and Xueli Zhao and Jing Meng} } @article {1087936, title = {Power system capacity expansion under higher penetration of renewables considering flexibility constraints and low carbon policies}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Power Systems}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, pages = {6240-6253}, abstract = {
Deploying high penetration of variable renewables represents a critical pathway for deep decarbonizing the power sector. The conflict between their temporal variability and limited system flexibility has been largely ignored currently at planning stage. Here we present a novel capacity expansion model optimizing investment decisions and full-year, hourly power balances simultaneously, with considerations of storage technologies and policy constraints, such as carbon tax and renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Based on a computational efficient modeling formulation, all flexibility constrains (ramping, reserve, minimum output, minimal online/offline time) for the 8760-hour duration are incorporated. The proposed model is applied to the northwestern grid of China to examine the optimal composition and distribution of power investments with a wide range of renewable targets. Results indicate that the cost can increase moderately towards 45\% of RPS, when properly designing the generation portfolio: prioritizing wind investments, distributing renewable investments more evenly and deploying more flexible mid-size coal and gas units. Reaching higher penetrations of renewables is expensive and the reductions of storage costs are critically important for an affordable low-carbon future. RPS or carbon taxes to reach a same target of emission reduction in China will result in similar overall costs but different generation mixes.
}, url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8344488/}, author = {Chen, Xinyu and Jiajun Lv and McElroy, Michael B. and Han, Xingning and Chris Nielsen and Wen, Jinyu} } @article {1120340, title = {Secular decrease of wind power potential in India associated with warming Indian Ocean}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {4}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The Indian government has set an ambitious target for future renewable power generation, including 60 GW of cumulative wind power capacity by 2022. However, the benefits of these substantial investments are vulnerable to the changing climate. On the basis of hourly wind data from an assimilated meteorology reanalysis dataset covering the 1980{\textendash}2016 period, we show that wind power potential may have declined secularly over this interval, particularly in western India. Surface temperature data confirm that significant warming occurred in the Indian Ocean over the study period, leading to modulation of high pressure over the ocean. A multivariable linear regression model incorporating the pressure gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent can account for the interannual variability of wind power. A series of numerical sensitivity experiments confirm that warming in the Indian Ocean contributes to subsidence and dampening of upward motion over the Indian continent, resulting potentially in weakening of the monsoonal circulation and wind speeds over India.}, url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/12/eaat5256}, author = {Meng Gao and Yihui Ding and Shaojie Song and Xiao Lu and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {1130213, title = {Tracing natural resource uses via China{\textquoteright}s supply chains}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {196}, year = {2018}, pages = {880-888}, abstract = {This paper makes an in-depth analysis on demand-driven natural resource requirements in China via the methods of thermodynamic input-output analysis and structural path analysis, in order to reveal the connections between the country{\textquoteright}s rapid economic development and its intensive use of natural resources. The main natural resources investigated include crops, forestry, rangeland, aquatic products, coal, crude oil \& natural gas, ferrous metal ores, nonferrous metal ores, nonmetallic minerals and other primary energy, and exergy is adopted as a common metric for the resource accounting. In 2012, the total domestic resource exergy input into Chinese economic system amounted to 130.1 EJ, of which 44.6\% was induced by investment demands. The embodied resource use (ERU) in China{\textquoteright}s exports was equivalent to over one fifth of its domestic resource supply. The two integrative sectors of\ Manufacturing\ and\ Construction\ accounted for 44.1\% and 28.7\% of the national total ERU, respectively. We identified critical supply chain paths starting from resource extraction to final demand, as well as key industrial sectors in driving the extraction, transmission and final use of embodied resources. The top 50 paths were responsible for 30.4 EJ of the ERU. The identification of resource supply chains from a systemic perspective is of great importance when resource and environmental policies are to be applied to concrete industrial sectors and other economic agents. Integrated approaches that take account of consumption-based resource indicators should be developed for resource conservation and cleaner production, particularly for the economic system with a complex supply network.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618317591}, author = {Bo Zhang and Shihui Guan and Xiaofang Wu and Xueli Zhao} } @article {1114379, title = {Urban form and digitalization of urban design}, journal = {Urban Planning International}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {22-27}, abstract = {
In the mid-18 Century, John Snow utilized spatial data\ analysis to trace the source of a cholera outbreak in London.\ His methods established the fundamental theory of using urban\ morphological study to solve practical urban issues. Accompanied\ by rapid innovation, technological improvement, and increasing\ computational power, urban morphology has been widely applied\ to digitalization of urban design. Through the urban form elements\ proposed by Kevin Lynch, this paper introduces the development of\ urban morphology in relation to digitalization of urban design in\ education, design practice and academic research. This paper adopts\ a variety of international case studies and discusses the importance\ of urban form and digitalization of urban design at a global scale.
}, url = {http://www.upi-planning.org/EN/Magazine/Show.aspx?ID=47301}, author = {Chenghe Guan} } @article {939091, title = {Assessment of the economic potential of China{\textquoteright}s onshore wind electricity}, journal = {Resources, Conservation and Recycling}, volume = {121}, year = {2017}, month = {2016}, pages = {33-39}, abstract = {

The assessment of the economic potential of wind electricity is of critical importance for wind power development in China. Based on the wind resource data between 1995 and 2014 and geological assumptions, this paper calculates economic potential of China{\textquoteright}s onshore wind electricity. Furthermore, it builds an econometric model to update the net-present-value model, based on a survey sample of various wind farms. Results show that the economic potential of China{\textquoteright}s onshore wind electricity is 8.13\ PWh per year with a feed-in-tariff price at 0.60 yuan (about 9.6\ U.S. cents) per kilowatt-hour.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344916302841}, author = {Liu, Changyi and Wang, Yang and Rong Zhu} } @article {1394318, title = {In pursuit of a well-balanced network of cities and towns: A case study of the Changjiang Delta Region}, journal = {Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science}, volume = {48}, year = {2017}, pages = {1-19}, abstract = {Development of urban networks of cities and towns has received attention including discussions of tensions between population concentrations and overlaps with environmentally sensitive and disaster-prone areas. Moreover, certain development in broad regions of China, such as its deltas, has become a subject of debate. Contrary to some assumptions, this development within places like the Changjiang Delta (also known as the Yangtze River Delta) has proceeded in a relatively incremental manner. However, at this juncture, controlled development of larger cities, like Shanghai, has shifted to more conventional urbanization pathways forward involving larger city expansions. Nevertheless, further urban growth management appears to depend on development and maintenance of a well-balanced network of large, medium, and small-scaled cities and towns. An important aspect of this development involves definition of the Changjiang Delta region itself, and in particular, alongside its likely further economic performance. To these ends, a scenario-based Cellular Automata model of spatial distribution is deployed, reflecting separate thematic projections. A baseline for economic performance is developed, incorporating measures of fixed-asset investment in urban service, revenue from urban maintenance, and Gross Domestic Product. Revelation of a well-performing network involves spatial distribution of development at various scales, and in various concentrations within the region, moreover, location of this development, largely perpendicular to well-travelled corridors, appears as a preferable outcome, contrary to earlier depictions along the major transportation corridors.}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/2399808317696073}, author = {Chenghe Guan and Peter Rowe} } @article {896091, title = {Integrated energy systems for higher wind penetration in China: Formulation, implementation, and impacts}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Power Systems}, volume = {33}, year = {2017}, pages = {1309-1319}, abstract = {With the largest installed capacity in the world, wind power in China is experiencing a \~{}20\% curtailment. The inflexible combined heat and power (CHP) has been recognized as the major barrier for integrating the wind source. The approach to reconcile the conflict between inflexible CHP units and variable wind power in Chinese energy system is yet un-clear. This paper explores the technical and economic feasibility of deploying the heat storage tanks and electric boilers under typical power grids and practical operational regulations. A mixed integer linear optimization model is proposed to simulate an integrated power and heating energy systems, including a CHP model capable of accounting for the commitment decisions and non-convex energy generation constraints. The model is applied to simulate a regional energy system (Jing-Jin-Tang) covering 100-million population, with hourly resolution over a year, incorporating actual data and operational regulations. The results project an accelerating increase in wind curtailment rate at elevated wind penetration. Investment for wind breaks-even at 14\% wind penetration. At such penetration, the electric boiler (with heat storage) is effective in reducing wind curtailment. The investment in electric boilers is justified on a social economic basis, but the revenues for different stakeholders are not distributed evenly.}, url = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8003309/?reload=true}, author = {Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B. and Kang, Chongqing} } @article {635616, title = {Trade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Recent studies show that international trade affects global distributions of air pollution andpublic health. Domestic interprovincial trade has similar effects within countries, but has notbeen comprehensively investigated previously. Here we link four models to evaluate theeffects of both international exports and interprovincial trade on PM2.5pollution and publichealth across China. We show that 50{\textendash}60\% of China{\textquoteright}s air pollutant emissions in 2007 wereassociated with goods and services consumed outside of the provinces where they wereproduced. Of an estimated 1.10 million premature deaths caused by PM2.5pollutionthroughout China, nearly 19\% (208,500 deaths) are attributable to international exports. Incontrast, interprovincial trade leads to improved air quality in developed coastal provinceswith a net effect of 78,500 avoided deaths nationwide. However, both international exportand interprovincial trade exacerbate the health burdens of air pollution in China{\textquoteright}s lessdeveloped interior provinces. Our results reveal trade to be a critical but largely overlookedconsideration in effective regional air quality planning for China.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00918-5.epdf?author_access_token=1ibCjzEowkvAM38EFEeJK9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N3Q-oW7VIfWcDm2Zc-xjr4FLOANsbsUuZ3pw6LpujzBrIO2AaR1DUR4dggK_V1zGebFIYSNUSlDVUZYfrGhPV6ScivUsy9F8QJiXoOue16Dg\%3D\%3D}, author = {Wang, Haikun and Zhang, Yanxu and Lu, Xi and Zhu, Weimo and Nielsen, Chris P. and Bi, Jun and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {980026, title = {Traffic congestion, ambient air pollution and health: Evidence from driving restrictions in Beijing}, journal = {Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists}, volume = {4}, year = {2017}, pages = {821{\textendash}856}, abstract = {

Vehicles have recently overtaken coal to become the largest source of air pollution in urban China. Research on mobile sources of pollution has foundered due both to inaccessibility of Chinese data on health outcomes and strong identifying assumptions. To address these, we collect daily ambulance call data from the Beijing Emergency Medical Center and combine them with an idiosyncratic feature of a driving restriction policy in Beijing that references the last digit of vehicles{\textquoteright} license plate numbers. Because the number 4 is considered unlucky by many in China, it tends to be avoided on license plates. As a result, days on which the policy restricts license plates ending in 4 unintentionally allow more vehicles in Beijing. Leveraging this variation, we find that traffic congestion is indeed 22\% higher on days banning 4 and that 24-hour average concentration of NO2\ is 12\% higher. Correspondingly, these short term increases in pollution increase ambulance calls by 12\% and 3\% for fever and heart related symptoms, while no effects are found for injuries. These findings suggest that traffic congestion has substantial health externalities in China but that they are also responsive to policy.\ 

}, url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1086/692115}, author = {Zhong, Nan and Cao, Jing and Wang, Yuzhu} } @article {918411, title = {Wind and solar power in the United States: Status and prospects}, journal = {CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems}, volume = {3}, year = {2017}, abstract = {

The United States has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26\%{\textendash}28\% by 2025 and by 83\% by 2050 relative to 2005. Meeting these objectives will require major investments in renewable energy options, particularly wind and solar. These investments are promoted at the federal level by a variety of tax credits, and at the state level by requirements for utilities to include specific fractions of renewable energy in their portfolios (Renewable Portfolio Standards) and by opportunities for rooftop PV systems to transfer excess power to utilities through net metering, allowing meters to operate in reverse. The paper discusses the current status of these incentives.

}, url = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7874615/?reload=true}, author = {McElroy, Michael B. and Chen, Xinyu} } @article {954801, title = {Wind-generated electricity in China: Decreasing potential, inter-annual variability, and association with climate change}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {7}, year = {2017}, abstract = {China hosts the world{\textquoteright}s largest market for wind-generated electricity. The financial return and carbon reduction benefits from wind power are sensitive to changing wind resources. Wind data derived from an assimilated meteorological database are used here to estimate what the wind generated electricity in China would have been on an hourly basis over the period 1979 to 2015 at a geographical resolution of approximately 50 km {\texttimes} 50 km. The analysis indicates a secular decrease in generating potential over this interval, with the largest declines observed for western Inner Mongolia (15 {\textpm} 7\%) and the northern part of Gansu (17 {\textpm} 8\%), two leading wind investment areas. The decrease is associated with long-term warming in the vicinity of the Siberian High (SH), correlated also with the observed secular increase in global average surface temperatures. The long-term trend is modulated by variability relating to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). A linear regression model incorporating indices for the PDO and AO, as well as the declining trend, can account for the interannual variability of wind power, suggesting that advances in long-term forecasting could be exploited to markedly improve management of future energy systems.}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-16073-2}, author = {Sherman, Peter and Chen, Xinyu and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {604141, title = {Benefits of China{\textquoteright}s efforts in gaseous pollutant control indicated by bottom-up emissions and satellite observations 2000-2014}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {136}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {43-53}, abstract = {

To evaluate the effectiveness of national air pollution control policies, the emissions of SO2, NOX, CO and CO2\ in China are estimated using bottom-up methods for the most recent 15-year period (2000{\textendash}2014). Vertical column densities (VCDs) from satellite observations are used to test the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and to explore the ambient levels of gaseous pollutants across the country. The inter-annual trends in emissions and VCDs match well except for SO2. Such comparison is improved with an optimistic assumption in emission estimation that the emission standards for given industrial sources issued after 2010 have been fully enforced. Underestimation of emission abatement and enhanced atmospheric oxidization likely contribute to the discrepancy between SO2\ emissions and VCDs. As suggested by VCDs and emissions estimated under the assumption of full implementation of emission standards, the control of SO2\ in the 12th Five-Year Plan period (12th FYP, 2011{\textendash}2015) is estimated to be more effective than that in the 11th FYP period (2006{\textendash}2010), attributed to improved use of flue gas desulfurization in the power sector and implementation of new emission standards in key industrial sources. The opposite was true for CO, as energy efficiency improved more significantly from 2005 to 2010 due to closures of small industrial plants. Iron \& steel production is estimated to have had particularly strong influence on temporal and spatial patterns of CO. In contrast to fast growth before 2011 driven by increased coal consumption and limited controls, NOX\ emissions decreased from 2011 to 2014 due to the penetration of selective catalytic/non-catalytic reduction systems in the power sector. This led to reduced NO2\ VCDs, particularly in relatively highly polluted areas such as the eastern China and Pearl River Delta regions. In developed areas, transportation is playing an increasingly important role in air pollution, as suggested by the increased ratio of NO2\ to SO2\ VCDs. For air quality in mega cities, the inter-annual trends in emissions and VCDs indicate that surrounding areas are more influential in NO2\ level for Beijing than those for Shanghai.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231016302898}, author = {Xia, Yinmin and Zhao, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P.} } @article {613326, title = {Challenges faced by China compared with the US in developing wind power}, journal = {Nature Energy}, volume = {1}, year = {2016}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH
Lu et al. is the cover article of this issue of\ Nature Energy. It is also subject of a\ "News and Views" commentary\ in the same issue, by Joanna I. Lewis.

}, month = {2016}, abstract = {

In the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC held in Paris in December 2015, China pledged to peak its carbon emissions and increase non-fossil energy to 20\% by 2030 or earlier. Expanding renewable capacity, especially wind power, is a central strategy to achieve these climate goals. Despite greater capacity for wind installation in China compared to the US (145.1 versus 75.0 GW), less wind electricity is generated in China (186.3 versus 190.9 TWh). Here, we quantify the relative importance of the key factors accounting for the unsatisfactory performance of Chinese wind farms. Different\ from the results in earlier qualitative studies, we find that the difference in wind resources explains only a small fraction of the present China-US difference in wind power output (17.9\% in 2012); the curtailment of wind power, differences in turbine quality, and delayed connection to the grid are identified as the three primary factors (respectively 49.3\%, 50.2\%, and 50.3\% in 2012). Improvements in both technology choices and the policy environment are critical in addressing these challenges.\ 

}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy201661}, author = {Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Peng, Wei and Liu, Shiyang and Nielsen, Chris P. and Wang, Haikun} } @article {650426, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions of a biomass-based pyrolysis plant in China}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {53}, year = {2016}, pages = {1580-1590}, abstract = {

Biomass pyrolysis offers an alternative to industrial coal-fired boilers and utilizes low temperature and long residence time to produce syngas, bio-oil and biochar. Construction of biomass-based pyrolysis plants has recently been on the rise in rural China necessitating research into the greenhouse gas emission levels produced as a result. Greenhouse gas emission intensity of a typical biomass fixed-bed pyrolysis plant in China is calculated as 1.55E-02\ kg CO2-eq/MJ. Carbon cycle of the whole process was investigated and found that if 41.02\% of the biochar returns to the field, net greenhouse gas emission is zero indicating the whole carbon cycle may be renewable. A biomass pyrolysis scenario analysis was also conducted to assess exhaust production, transportation distance and the electricity-generation structure for background information applied in the formulation of national policy.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115010199}, author = {Yang, Qing and Chen, Yingquan and Yang, Haiping and Chen, Hanping} } @article {641951, title = {Household energy demand in urban China: Accounting for regional prices and rapid economic change}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {37}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, abstract = {

Understanding the rapidly rising demand for energy in China is essential to efforts to reduce the country{\textquoteright}s energy use and environmental damage. In response to rising incomes and changing prices and demographics, household use of various fuels, electricity and gasoline has changed dramatically in China. In this paper, we estimate both income and price elasticities for various energy types using Chinese urban household micro-data collected by National bureau of Statistics, by applying a two-stage budgeting AIDS model. We find that total energy is price and income inelastic for all income groups after accounting for demographic and regional effects. Our estimated electricity price elasticity ranges from - 0.49 to -0.57, gas price elasticity ranges from -0.46 to -0.94, and gasoline price elasticity ranges from -0.85 to -0.94. Income elasticity for various energy types range from 0.57 to 0.94. Demand for coal is most price and income elastic among the poor, whereas gasoline demand is elastic for the rich.

}, url = {http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2704}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S. and Liang, Huifang} } @article {729576, title = {Long-term trend and spatial pattern of PM2.5-induced premature mortality in China}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {97}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {180-186}, abstract = {

With rapid economic growth, China has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe haze and smog episodes over the past decade, posing serious health impacts to the Chinese population, especially those in densely populated city clusters. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variation of health impacts attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has important implications for China{\textquoteright}s policies on air pollution control. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution of premature deaths in China between 2000 and 2010 attributable to ambient PM2.5\ in accord with the Global Burden of Disease based on a high resolution population density map of China, satellite retrieved PM2.5\ concentrations, and provincial health data. Our results suggest that China{\textquoteright}s anthropogenic ambient PM2.5\ led to 1,255,400 premature deaths in 2010, 42\% higher than the level in 2000. Besides increased PM2.5\ concentration, rapid urbanization has attracted large population migration into the more developed eastern coastal urban areas, intensifying the overall health impact. In addition, our analysis implies that health burdens were exacerbated in some developing inner provinces with high population density (e.g. Henan, Anhui, Sichuan) because of the relocation of more polluting and resource-intensive industries into these regions. In order to avoid such national level environmental inequities, China{\textquoteright}s regulations on PM2.5\ should not be loosened in inner provinces. Furthermore policies should create incentive mechanisms that can promote transfer of advanced production and emissions control technologies from the coastal regions to the interior regions.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412016303397}, author = {Xie, Rong and Clive E. Sabel and Lu, Xi and Zhu, Weimo and Kan, Haidong and Nielsen, Chris P. and Wang, Haikun} } @article {650431, title = {Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2x600 MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {60}, year = {2016}, pages = {1274-1285}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116002501}, author = {Wu, X.D. and Yang, Q. and Chen, G.Q. and Hayat, T. and Alsaedi, A.} } @article {485091, title = {Prospects for shale gas production in China: Implications for water demand}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {66}, year = {2016}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2016}, pages = {742-750}, abstract = {

Development of shale gas resources is expected to play an important role in China{\textquoteright}s projected transition to a low-carbon energy future. The question arises whether the availability of water could limit this development. The paper considers a range of scenarios to define the demand for water needed to accommodate China{\textquoteright}s projected shale gas production through 2020. Based on data from the gas field at Fuling, the first large-scale shale gas field in China, it is concluded that the water intensity for shale gas development in China (water demand per unit lateral length) is likely to exceed that in the US by about 50\%. Fuling field would require a total of 39.9{\textendash}132.9\ Mm3\ of water to achieve full development of its shale gas, with well spacing assumed to vary between 300 and 1000\ m. To achieve the 2020 production goal set by Sinopec, the key Chinese developer, water consumption is projected to peak at 7.22\ Mm3\ in 2018. Maximum water consumption would account for 1\% and 3\%, respectively, of the available water resource and annual water use in the Fuling district. To achieve China{\textquoteright}s nationwide shale gas production goal set for 2020, water consumption is projected to peak at 15.03\ Mm3\ in 2019 in a high-use scenario. It is concluded that supplies of water are adequate to meet demand in Fuling and most projected shale plays in China, with the exception of localized regions in the Tarim and Jungger Basins.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116304580}, author = {Guo, Meiyu and Lu, Xi and Nielsen, Chris P. and McElroy, Michael B. and Shi, Wenrui and Chen, Yuntian and Yu, Xuan} } @article {416956, title = {Reducing curtailment of wind electricity in China by employing electric boilers for heat and pumped hydro for energy storage}, journal = {Applied Energy}, volume = {184}, year = {2016}, month = {December 2016}, pages = {987-994}, abstract = {

Accommodating variable wind power poses a critical challenge for electric power systems that are heavily dependent on combined heat and power (CHP) plants, as is the case for north China. An improved unit-commitment model is applied to evaluate potential benefits from pumped hydro storage (PHS) and electric boilers (EBs) in West Inner Mongolia (WIM), where CHP capacity is projected to increase\ to 33.8 GW by 2020. A business-as-usual (BAU) reference case assumes deployment of 20 GW of wind capacity. Compared to BAU, expanding wind capacity to 40 GW would allow for a reduction in CO2 emissions of 33.9 million tons, but at a relatively high cost of US$25.3/ton, reflecting primarily high associated curtailment of wind electricity (20.4\%). A number of scenarios adding PHS and/or EBs combined with higher levels of wind capacity are evaluated. The best case indicates that a combination of PHS (3.6 GW) and EBs (6.2 GW) together with 40 GW of wind capacity would reduce CO2\ emissions by 43.5 million tons compared to BAU, and at a lower cost of US$16.0/ton. Achieving this outcome will require a price-incentive policy designed to ensure the profitability of both PHS and EB facilities.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915013896}, author = {Zhang, Ning and Lu, Xi and Nielsen, Chris P and McElroy, Michael B. and Chen, Xinyu and Deng, Yu and Kang, Chongqing} } @article {763976, title = {Torrefaction of different parts from a corn stalk and its effect on the characterization of products}, journal = {Industrial Crops and Products}, volume = {92}, year = {2016}, month = {2016}, pages = {26-33}, abstract = {

Torrefaction of biomass can reduce its undesirable properties\ for the subsequent thermochemical application. After separating a Chinese\ corn stalk into four parts (leaf, stem, root, and cob), torrefaction was\ performed at temperatures of 200, 250, and 300 {\textdegree}C respectively. The\ structural and components differences of various parts were analyzed,\ along with the solid, gas, and liquid products. The study showed that the\ root was the most sensitive to heat and the cob showed the biggest\ increase in CO2 and CO yields with the increase temperature, due to their\ different content of hemicellulose and cellulose. The torrefaction\ temperature of 250 {\textdegree}C was especially significant for the formation of\ acids. Liquid product from the leaf was simpler in composition and lower\ in yield due to higher content of organic extractives and ash. Generally,\ various parts have different torrefaction properties due to the\ differences in chemical composition and cellular structure. And with the\ thermochemical application of biomass were more widely used in the\ chemical industry especially fine chemical industry, screening and\ classification may be necessary.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0926669016304708}, author = {Mei, Yanyang and Qingfeng Che and Yang, Qing and Christopher Draper and Yang, Haiping and Shihong Zhang and Chen, Hanping} } @article {543911, title = {Urban land use change and regional access: A case study in Beijing, China}, journal = {Habitat International}, volume = {51}, year = {2016}, pages = {103-113}, abstract = {

In the recent past Beijing has experienced rapid development. This growth has been accompanied by many problems including traffic congestion and air pollution. Understanding what stimulates urban growth is important for sustainable development in the coming years. In this paper, we first estimate a binary auto-logistic model of land use change, using physical and socioeconomic characteristics of the location and its access to major centers within the city as predictors. We find that variables determining regional access, like time distance to the city center, the Central Business District (CBD), industrial centers, employment centers, and the transportation system, significantly impact urban land conversion. By using measures of access to predict land use change we believe that we can better understand the planning implications of urban growth not only in Beijing but other rapidly developing cities.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197397515001952}, author = {Deng, Yu and Srinivasan, Sumeeta} } @article {340381, title = {A 32-year perspective on the origin of wind energy in a warming climate}, journal = {Renewable Energy}, volume = {77}, year = {2015}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2015}, pages = {482-492}, abstract = {

Based on assimilated meteorological data for the period January 1979 to December 2010, the origin of wind energy is investigated from both mechanical and thermodynamic perspectives, with special focus on the spatial distribution of sources, historical long term variations and the efficiency for kinetic energy production. The dry air component of the atmosphere acts as a thermal engine, absorbing heat at higher temperatures, approximately\ 256 K, releasing heat at lower temperatures, approximately 252 K. The process is responsible for production of wind kinetic energy at a rate of 2.46 W/m2\ \ sustaining thus the circulation of the atmosphere against frictional dissipation. The results indicate an upward trend in kinetic energy production over the past 32 years, indicating that wind energy resources may be varying in the current warming climate. This analysis provides an analytical framework that can be adopted for future studies addressing the ultimate wind energy potential and the possible perturbations to the atmospheric circulation that could arise as a result of significant exploitation of wind energy.\ \ \ \ 

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148114008726}, author = {Huang, Junling and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {440741, title = {Advantages of city-scale emission inventory for urban air quality research and policy: the case of Nanjing, a typical industrial city in the Yangtze River Delta, China}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {15}, year = {2015}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2015}, pages = {12623-12644}, abstract = {

With most eastern Chinese cities facing major air quality challenges, there is a strong need for city-scale emission inventories for use in both chemical transport modeling and the development of pollution control policies. In this paper, a high-resolution emission inventory of air pollutants and CO2\ for Nanjing, a typical large city in the Yangtze River Delta, is developed incorporating the best available information on local sources. Emission factors and activity data at the unit or facility level are collected and compiled using a thorough onsite survey of major sources. Over 900 individual plants, which account for 97\% of the city{\textquoteright}s total coal consumption, are identified as point sources, and all of the emission-related parameters including combustion technology, fuel quality, and removal efficiency of air pollution control devices (APCD) are analyzed. New data-collection approaches including continuous emission monitoring systems and real-time monitoring of traffic flows are employed to improve spatiotemporal distribution of emissions. Despite fast growth of energy consumption between 2010 and 2012, relatively small inter-annual changes in emissions are found for most air pollutants during this period, attributed mainly to benefits of growing APCD deployment and the comparatively strong and improving regulatory oversight of the large point sources that dominate the levels and spatial distributions of Nanjing emissions overall. The improvement of this city-level emission inventory is indicated by comparisons with observations and other inventories at larger spatial scale. Relatively good spatial correlations are found for SO2, NOX, and CO between the city-scale emission estimates and concentrations at 9 state-opertated monitoring sites (R\ = 0.58, 0.46, and 0.61, respectively). The emission ratios of specific pollutants including BC to CO, OC to EC, and CO2\ to CO compare well to top-down constraints from ground observations. The inter-annual variability and spatial distribution of NOX\ emissions are consistent with NO2\ vertical column density measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). In particular, the Nanjing city-scale emission inventory correlates better with satellite observations than the downscaled Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) does when emissions from power plants are excluded. This indicates improvement in emission estimation for sectors other than power generation, notably industry and transportation. High-resolution emission inventory may also provide a basis to consider the quality of instrumental observations. To further improve emission estimation and evaluation, more measurements of both emission factors and ambient levels of given pollutants are suggested; the uncertainties of emission inventories at city scale should also be fully quantified and compared with those at national scale.\ 


}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/12623/2015/acp-15-12623-2015.pdf}, author = {Zhao, Y. and LP Qiu and RY Xu and FJ Xie and Q. Zhang and YY Yu and Nielsen, C.P. and HX Qin and Wang, H.K. and XC Wu and WQ Li and Zhang, J.} } @article {349086, title = {A dual strategy for controlling energy consumption and air pollution in China{\textquoteright}s metropolis of Beijing}, journal = {Energy}, volume = {81}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, pages = {294-303}, abstract = {

It is critical to alleviate problems of energy and air pollutant emissions in a metropolis because these areas serve as economic engines and have large and dense populations. Drivers of fossil fuel use and air pollutants emissions were analyzed in the metropolis of Beijing during 1997-2010. The analyses were conducted from both a bottom-up and a top-down perspective based on the sectoral inventories and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). From a bottom-up perspective, the key energy-intensive industrial sectors directly caused the variations in Beijing{\textquoteright}s air pollution by means of a series of energy and economic policies. From a top-down perspective, variations in production structures caused increases in most materials during 2000-2010, but there were decreases in PM10 and PM2.5 emissions during 2005-2010. Population growth was found to be the largest driver of energy consumption and air pollutant emissions during 1997-2010. This finding suggests that avoiding rapid population growth in Beijing could simultaneously control energy consumption and air pollutant emissions. Mitigation policies should consider not only the key industrial sectors but also socioeconomic drivers to co-reduce energy consumption and air pollution in China{\textquoteright}s metropolis.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214014133}, author = {Zhang, Yanxia and Wang, Haikun and Liang, Sai and Xu, Ming and Zhang, Qiang and Zhao, Hongyan and Bi, Jun} } @article {301156, title = {Evaluating the effects of China{\textquoteright}s pollution control on inter-annual trends and uncertainties of atmospheric mercury emissions}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {15}, year = {2015}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2015}, pages = {4317{\textendash}4337}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s atmospheric mercury (Hg) emissions of anthropogenic origin have been effectively restrained through the national policy of air pollution control. Improved methods based on available field measurements are developed to quantify the benefits of Hg abatement through various emission control measures. Those measures include increased use of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and selective catalyst reduction (SCR) systems for power sector, precalciners with fabric filter (FF) for cement production, machinery coking with electrostatic precipitator (ESP) for iron and steel production, and advanced manufacturing technologies for nonferrous metal smelting. Declining trends in emissions factors for those sources are revealed, leading to a much slower growth of national total Hg emissions than that of energy and economy, from 679 in 2005 to 750 metric tons (t) in 2012. In particular, nearly half of emissions from the above-mentioned four types of sources are expected to be reduced in 2012, attributed to expansion of technologies with high energy efficiencies and air pollutant removal rates after 2005. The speciation of Hg emissions keeps stable for recent years, with the mass fractions of around 55, 39 and 6\% for Hg0, Hg2+ and Hgp, respectively. The lower estimate of Hg emissions than previous inventories is supported by limited chemistry simulation work, but middle-to-long term observation on ambient Hg levels is further needed to justify the inter-annual trends of estimated Hg emissions. With improved implementation of emission controls and energy saving, 23\% reduction in annual Hg emissions for the most optimistic case in 2030 is expected compared to 2012, with total emissions below 600 t. While Hg emissions are evaluated to be gradually constrained, increased uncertainties are quantified with Monte-Carlo simulation for recent years, particularly for power and certain industrial sources. The uncertainty of Hg emissions from coal-fired power plants, as an example, increased from -48 ~ +73\% in 2005 to -50 ~ +89\% in 2012 (expressed as 95\% confidence interval). This is attributed mainly to swiftly increased penetration of advanced manufacturing and pollutant control technologies. The unclear operation status or relatively small sample size of field measurements on those technologies results in lower but highly varied emission factors. To further confirm the benefits of pollution control polices with reduced uncertainty, therefore, systematic investigations are recommended specific for Hg pollution sources, and the variability of temporal trends and spatial distributions of Hg emissions need to be better tracked for the country under dramatic changes in economy, energy and air pollution status.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/4317/2015/acp-15-4317-2015.pdf}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Zhong, Hui and Zhang, Jie and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {335206, title = {Patterns in atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols in China: Emission estimates and observed concentrations}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {15}, year = {2015}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2015}, pages = {8657{\textendash}8678}, abstract = {

China is experiencing severe carbonaceous aerosol pollution driven mainly by large emissions from intensive use of solid fuels. To gain a better understanding of the levels and trends of carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resulting ambient concentrations at the national scale, we update an emission inventory of anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC), and employ existing observational studies to analyze characteristics of these aerosols including temporal, spatial, and size distributions, and the levels and contributions of secondary organic carbon (SOC) to total OC. We further use ground observations to test the levels and inter-annual trends of the calculated national and provincial emissions of carbonaceous aerosols, and propose possible improvements in emission estimation for the future. The national OC emissions are estimated to have increased 29\% from 2000 (2127 Gg) to 2012 (2749 Gg) and EC by 37\% (from 1356 to 1857 Gg). The residential, industrial, and transportation sectors contributed an estimated 76{\textpm}2\%, 19{\textpm}2\% and 5{\textpm}1\% of the total emissions of OC, respectively, and 52{\textpm}3\%, 32{\textpm}2\% and 16{\textpm}2\% of EC. Updated emission factors based on the most recent local field measurements, particularly for biofuel stoves, lead to considerably lower emissions of OC compared to previous inventories. Compiling observational data across the country, higher concentrations of OC and EC are found in northern and inland cities, while larger OC/EC and SOC/OC ratios are found in southern cities, due to the joint effects of primary emissions and meteorology. Higher SOC/OC ratios are estimated at rural and background sites compared to urban ones, attributed to more emissions of OC from biofuel use, more biogenic emissions of volatile organic compound (VOC) precursors to SOC, and/or transport of aged aerosols. For most sites, higher concentrations of OC, EC, and SOC are observed in colder seasons, while SOC/OC is reduced, particularly at regional sites, attributed partly to weaker atmospheric oxidation and SOC formation compared to summer. Enhanced SOC formation from oxidization and anthropogenic activities like biomass combustion is judged to have crucial effects on severe haze events characterized by high particle concentrations. Several observational studies indicate an increasing trend in ambient OC/EC (but not in OC or EC individually) from 2000 to 2010, confirming increased atmospheric oxidation of OC across the country. Combining the results of emission estimation and observations, the improvement over prior emission inventories is indicated by inter-annual comparisons and correlation analysis. It is also indicated, however, that the estimated growth in emissions might be faster than observed growth, and that some sources with high primary OC/EC like burning of biomass are still underestimated. Further studies to determine changing emission factors over time in the residential sector and to compare to other measurements such as satellite observations are thus suggested to improve understanding of the levels and trends of primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China.

}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8657/2015/acp-15-8657-2015.pdf}, author = {Hongfei Cui and Pan Mao and Zhao, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P and Zhang, Jie} } @article {1003436, title = {Renewability and sustainability of biogas system: Cosmic exergy based assessment for a case in China}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {51}, year = {2015}, pages = {1509-1524}, abstract = {

The household-scale biogas system gains its popularity in rural China, and is now playing a prominent role in relieving energy shortages and reducing environmental pollution. A comprehensive review is performed for related environmental and ecological assessment studies. For an overall assessment of the biogas system, especially for its renewability and sustainability, an updated exergy methodology in terms of cosmic exergy is introduced in this paper, and is concretely illustrated by a case study to an integrated biogas engineering in Hubei, China. Associated with the fundamental universal scale of the cosmic-solar-terrestrial ecosystem, this new approach aggregates natural resources, economic inputs and environmental contamination on a common basis. Furthermore, a series of cosmic exergy based indicators are established to quantify the renewability and sustainability of the system. The integrated biogas engineering is proved to be with remarkable positive net ecological benefits, around twice that of the corresponding conventional production system. Near half of resource inputs in the integrated biogas system are found to be renewable. The renewability and sustainability of the biogas system turn out to be respectively double and six times those of the conventional system. The findings are fully supportive for policy makers in their action towards further progress of biogas project for sustainable development.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211500698X}, author = {Wu, X.F. and Chen, G.Q. and Wu, X.D. and Yang, Q. and Alsaedi, A. and Hayat, T. and Ahmad, B.} } @article {309961, title = {Spatial pattern and evolution of Chinese provincial population: Methods and empirical study}, journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences}, volume = {25}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, pages = {1507-1520}, abstract = {

China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China{\textquoteright}s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27\%. Urbanization level is expected to increase to 70\% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China{\textquoteright}s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its {\textquotedblleft}one-child policy{\textquotedblright} gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environmental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial distribution of China{\textquoteright}s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results suggested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population densities: Fast Changing Populated Region (FCPR), Low Changing Populated Region (LCPR) and Inactive Populated Region (IPR). In the FCPR, China{\textquoteright}s population is projected to continue to concentrate in net immigration leading type (NILT) area where receives nearly 99\% of new accumulated floating population. Population densities of Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang will peak in 2030, while the population density in Guangdong will keep increasing until 2035. Net emigration leading type (NELT) area will account for 75\% of emigration population, including Henan, Anhui, Chongqing and Hubei. Natural growth will play a dominant role in natural growth leading type area, such as Liaoning and Shandong, because there will be few emigration population. Due to the large amount of moving-out labors and gradually declining fertility rates, population density of the LCPR region exhibits a downward trend, except for Fujian and Hainan. The majority of the western provinces will be likely to remain relatively low population density, with an average value of no more than 100 persons per km2.

}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11442-015-1248-x}, author = {Deng, Yu and Liu, Shenghe and Cai, Jianming and Lu, Xi and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {387056, title = {Thermodynamic disequilibrium of the atmosphere in the context of global warming}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, year = {2015}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2015}, abstract = {

The atmosphere is an example of a non-equilibrium system. This study explores the relationship among temperature, energy and entropy of the atmosphere, introducing two variables that serve to quantify the thermodynamic disequilibrium of the atmosphere. The maximum work, Wmax, that the atmosphere can perform is defined as the work developed through a thermally reversible and adiabatic approach to thermodynamic equilibrium with global entropy conserved. The maximum entropy increase, (ΔS)max, is defined as the increase in global entropy achieved through a thermally irreversible transition to thermodynamic equilibrium without performing work. Wmax\ is identified as an approximately linear function of (ΔS)max. Large values of Wmax or S)max correspond to states of high thermodynamic disequilibrium. The seasonality and long-term historical variation of Wmax and S)max are computed, indicating highest disequilibrium in July, lowest disequilibrium in January with no statistically significant trend over the past 32 years. The analysis provides a perspective on the interconnections of temperature, energy and entropy for the atmosphere and allows for a quantitative investigation of the deviation of the atmosphere from thermodynamic equilibrium.\ 

}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2553-x}, author = {Huang, Junling and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {247086, title = {Understanding China{\textquoteright}s carbon dioxide emissions from both production and consumption perspectives}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {52}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, pages = {189-200}, abstract = {

China is now the largest emitter of CO2 in the world, having contributed nearly half of the global increase in carbon emissions between 1980 and 2010. The existing literature on China{\textquoteright}s carbon emissions has focused on two dimensions: the amount of CO2 emitted within China{\textquoteright}s geographical boundaries (a production-based perspective), and the drivers of, and responsibility for, these emissions (a consumption-based perspective). The current study begins with a comprehensive review of China{\textquoteright}s CO2 emissions, and then analyzes their driving forces from both consumption and production perspectives, at both national and provincial levels. It is concluded that China{\textquoteright}s aggregate national CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production maintained high growth rates during 2000-2010. National emissions reached 6.8{\textendash}7.3 billion tons in 2007, nearly 25\% of which were caused by net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) to other countries. However, emission characteristics varied significantly among different regions and provinces, and considerable emission leakage from the developed eastern regions to inland and western areas of the country was found. The objectives of China{\textquoteright}s policies should therefore be broadened from continued improvement of energy efficiency to accelerating regional technology transfer and preventing mere relocation of carbon-intensive economic activities from developed coastal regions to less developed, inland provinces. To rapidly and effectively cut down China{\textquoteright}s carbon emissions, moreover, its energy supply should be aggressively decarbonized by promoting renewable and low carbon energy sources.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115007364}, author = {Wang, Haikun and Zhang, Yanxia and Lu, Xi and Nielsen, Chris P and Bi, Jun} } @article {131761, title = {Contributions of the Hadley and Ferrel circulations to the energetics of the atmosphere over the past 32 years}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {27}, year = {2014}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {2656{\textendash}2666}, abstract = {

The Hadley system provides an example of a thermally direct circulation; the Ferrel system in contrast provides an example of a thermally indirect circulation. In this study, the authors develop an approach to investigate the key thermodynamic properties of the Hadley and Ferrel systems, quantifying them using assimilated meteorological data covering the period January 1979{\textendash}December 2010. This analysis offers a fresh perspective on the conversion of energy in the atmosphere from diabatic heating to the production of atmospheric kinetic energy. The results indicate that the thermodynamic efficiency of the Hadley system, considered as a heat engine, has been relatively constant over the 32-yr period covered by the analysis, averaging 2.6\%. Over the same interval, the power generated by the Hadley regime has risen at an average rate of about 0.54 TW yr-1; this reflects an increase in energy input to the system consistent with the observed trend in the tropical sea surface temperatures. The Ferrel system acts as a heat pump with a coefficient of performance of 12.1, consuming kinetic energy at an approximate rate of 275 TW and exceeding the power production rate of the Hadley system by 77 TW.

}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00538.1}, author = {Huang, Junling and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {139596, title = {The effects of energy paths and emission controls and standards on future trends in China{\textquoteright}s emissions of primary air pollutants}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {14}, year = {2014}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {8849-8868}, abstract = {
To examine the efficacy of China{\textquoteright}s actions to control atmospheric pollution, three levels of growth of energy consumption and three levels of implementation of emission controls are estimated, generating a total of nine combined activity-emission control scenarios that are then used to estimate trends of national emissions of primary air pollutants through 2030. The emission control strategies are expected to have more effects than the energy paths on the future emission trends for all the concerned pollutants. As recently promulgated national action plans of air pollution prevention and control (NAPAPPC) are implemented, China{\textquoteright}s anthropogenic pollutant emissions should decline. For example, the emissions of SO2, NOx, total suspended particles (TSP), PM10, and PM2.5\ are estimated to decline 7, 20, 41, 34, and 31\% from 2010 to 2030, respectively, in the "best guess" scenario that includes national commitment of energy saving policy and implementation of NAPAPPC. Should the issued/proposed emission standards be fully achieved, a less likely scenario, annual emissions would be further reduced, ranging from 17 (for primary PM2.5) to 29\% (for NOx) declines in 2015, and the analogue numbers would be 12 and 24\% in 2030. The uncertainties of emission projections result mainly from the uncertain operational conditions of swiftly proliferating air pollutant control devices and lack of detailed information about emission control plans by region. The predicted emission trends by sector and chemical species raise concerns about current pollution control strategies: the potential for emissions abatement in key sectors may be declining due to the near saturation of emission control devices use; risks of ecosystem acidification could rise because emissions of alkaline base cations may be declining faster than those of SO2; and radiative forcing could rise because emissions of positive-forcing carbonaceous aerosols may decline more slowly than those of SO2\ emissions and thereby concentrations of negative-forcing sulfate particles. Expanded control of emissions of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols from small industrial and residential sources is recommended, and a more comprehensive emission control strategy targeting a wider range of pollutants (volatile organic compounds, NH3\ and CO, etc.) and taking account of more diverse environmental impacts is also urgently needed.
}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/8849/2014/acp-14-8849-2014.pdf}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Zhang, Jie and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {139651, title = {Emission trends and mitigation options for air pollutants in East Asia}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {14}, year = {2014}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {6571-6603}, abstract = {

Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia play an important role in the regional and global atmospheric environment. In this study we evaluated the recent emission trends of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in East Asia, and projected their future emissions up until 2030 with six emission scenarios. The results will provide future emission projections for the modeling community of the model inter-comparison program for Asia (MICS-Asia). During 2005{\textendash}2010, the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 in East Asia decreased by 15 and 12\%, respectively, mainly attributable to the large-scale deployment of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) at China{\textquoteright}s power plants, and the promotion of highly efficient PM removal technologies in China{\textquoteright}s power plants and cement industry. During this period, the emissions of NOx and NMVOC increased by 25 and 15\%, driven by rapid increase in the emissions from China due to inadequate control strategies. In contrast, the NOx and NMVOC emissions in East Asia except China decreased by 13{\textendash}17\%, mainly due to the implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards in Japan and South Korea. Under current regulations and current levels of implementation, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emissions in East Asia are projected to increase by about one-quarter over 2010 levels by 2030, while PM2.5 emissions are expected to decrease by 7\%. Assuming enforcement of new energy-saving policies, emissions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and NMVOC in East Asia are expected to decrease by 28, 36, 28, and 15\%, respectively, compared with the baseline case. The implementation of "progressive" end-of-pipe control measures would lead to another one-third reduction of the baseline emissions of NOx, and about one-quarter reduction of SO2, PM2.5, and NMVOC. Assuming the full application of technically feasible energy-saving policies and end-of-pipe control technologies, the emissions of NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 in East Asia would account for only about one-quarter, and NMVOC for one-third, of the levels of the baseline projection. Compared with previous projections, this study projects larger reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions by considering aggressive governmental plans and standards scheduled to be implemented in the next decade, and quantifies the significant effects of detailed progressive control measures on NMVOC emissions up until 2030.

}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/6571/2014/acp-14-6571-2014.pdf}, author = {Wang, S.X. and Zhao, B. and Cai, S.Y. and Klimont, Z. and Nielsen, C.P. and Morikawa, T. and Woo, J.H. and Y. Kim and Fu, X. and Xu, J.Y. and Hao, J.M. and He, K.B.} } @article {46446, title = {Meteorologically defined limits to reduction in the variability of outputs from a coupled wind farm system in the Central US}, journal = {Renewable Energy}, volume = {62}, year = {2014}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH
This paper is from a series investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.

}, pages = {331{\textendash}340}, abstract = {

Studies suggest that onshore wind resources in the contiguous US could readily accommodate present and anticipated future US demand for electricity. The problem with the output from a single wind farm located in any particular region is that it is variable on time scales ranging from minutes to days posing difficulties for incorporating relevant outputs into an integrated power system. The high frequency (shorter than once per day) variability of contributions from individual wind farms is determined mainly by locally generated small-scale boundary layer. The low frequency variability (longer than once per day) is associated with the passage of transient waves in the atmosphere with a characteristic time scale of several days. Using 5 years of assimilated wind data, we show that the high frequency variability of wind-generated power can be significantly reduced by coupling outputs from 5 to 10 wind farms distributed uniformly over a ten state region of the Central US in this study. More than 95\% of the remaining variability of the coupled system is concentrated at time scales longer than a day, allowing operators to take advantage of multi-day weather forecasts in scheduling projected contributions from wind.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148113003674}, author = {Huang, Junling and Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {346711, title = {Modeling urban metabolism of Beijing city, China, with coupled system dynamics: Emergy model}, journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment}, volume = {28}, year = {2014}, pages = {1511-1524}, abstract = {

Chinese cities are plagued by the rise in resource and energy input and output over the last decade. At the same time, the scale and pace of economic development sweeping across Chinese cities have revived the debate about urban metabolisms, which could be simply seen as the ratio of output to resource and energy input in urban systems. In this study, an emergy (meaning the equivalent solar energy) accounting, sustainable indices of urban metabolisms, and an urban metabolic system dynamics model, are developed in support of the research task on Chinese cities {\textquoteleft}metabolisms and their related policies. The dynamic simulation model used in the paper is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, which is directly useful for simulating and evaluating a variety of decision actions and their dynamic consequences. For the study case, interactions among a number of Beijing{\textquoteright}s urban emergy components within a time frame of 20\ years (from 2010 to 2030) are examined dynamically. Six alternative policy scenarios are implemented into the system simulation. Our results indicate that Beijing{\textquoteright}s current model of urban metabolism{\textemdash}tertiary industry oriented development mode{\textemdash}would deliver prosperity to the city. However, the analysis also shows that this mode of urban metabolism would weaken urban self-support capacity due primarily to the large share of imported and exported emergy in the urban metabolic system. The keys of improving the efficiency of urban metabolism include the priority on the renewable resource and energy, increase in environmental investment and encouragement on innovative technologies of resource and energy utilization, et al.

}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs00477-013-0830-y}, author = {Song, Tao and Jian-ming Cai and Chahine, Teresa and Xu, Hui and Fang-qu Niu} } @article {137031, title = {Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology}, volume = {48}, year = {2014}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, month = {2014}, pages = {14764{\textendash}14771}, abstract = {

Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a non-dispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10\% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60\% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9\%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60\% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8\% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es503767x}, author = {Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Chen, Xinyu and Kang, Chongqing} } @article {187811, title = {Source apportionment of atmospheric mercury pollution in China using the GEOS-Chem model}, journal = {Environmental Pollution}, volume = {190}, year = {2014}, pages = {166-175}, abstract = {

China is the largest atmospheric mercury (Hg) emitter in the world. Its Hg emissions and environmental impacts need to be evaluated. In this study, China{\textquoteright}s Hg emission inventory is updated to 2007 and applied in the GEOS-Chem model to simulate the Hg concentrations and depositions in China. Results indicate that simulations agree well with observed background Hg concentrations. The anthropogenic sources contributed 35{\textendash}50\% of THg concentration and 50{\textendash}70\% of total deposition in polluted regions. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impacts of mercury emissions from power plants, non-ferrous metal smelters and cement plants. It is found that power plants are the most important emission sources in the North China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) while the contribution of non-ferrous metal smelters is most significant in the Southwest China. The impacts of cement plants are significant in the YRD, PRD and Central China.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026974911400102X}, author = {Wang, Long and Wang, Shuxiao and Zheng, Lei and Wang, Yuxuan and Zheng, Yanxu and Nielsen, Chris P and McElroy, Michael B. and Hao, Jiming} } @article {75506, title = {Synergies of wind power and electrified space heating: A case study for Beijing}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology}, volume = {48}, year = {2014}, pages = {2016{\textendash}2024}, abstract = {

Demands for electricity and energy to supply heat are expected to expand by 71\% and 47\%, respectively, for Beijing in 2020 relative to 2009. If the additional electricity and heat are supplied solely by coal as is the current situation, annual emissions of CO2 may be expected to increase by 59.6\% or 99 million tons over this interval. Assessed against this business as usual (BAU) background, the present study indicates that significant reductions in emissions could be realized using wind-generated electricity to provide a source of heat, employed either with heat pumps or with electric thermal storage (ETS) devices. Relative to BAU, reductions in CO2 with heat pumps assuming 20\% wind penetration could be as large as 48.5\% and could be obtained at a cost for abatement of as little as $15.6 per ton of avoided CO2. Even greater reductions, 64.5\%, could be realized at a wind penetration level of 40\% but at a higher cost, $29.4 per ton. Costs for reduction of CO2 using ETS systems are significantly higher, reflecting the relatively low efficiency for conversion of coal to power to heat.

}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es405653x}, author = {Chen, Xinyu and Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Nielsen, Chris P and Kang, Chongqing} } @article {90541, title = {Temporal and spatial variations in consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions in China}, journal = {Renewable \& Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {40}, year = {2014}, pages = {60-68}, abstract = {

China{\textquoteright}s CO2 emissions have sharply increased in recent years with soaring economic development and urbanization. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions could provide new insights for allocating regional mitigation responsibility and curbing the emissions. A multi-regional input{\textendash}output model is used to study the trends and disparities of consumption-based emissions from Chinese provinces during the period 2002{\textendash}2007. Results show that China{\textquoteright}s consumption-based CO2 emissions grew from 3549 Mt in 2002 to 5403 Mt in 2007 with an annual average growth rate of 8.8\%. The annual growth rate in the richer eastern region was over 10\% because of a rapid increase in capital investment and the growth of urban consumption. Consumption-based CO2 emissions embodied in interprovincial trades contributed only 10\% (351 Mt) to the national total of such emissions in 2002, but 16\% (864 Mt) in 2007. Given low per capita emissions currently, China{\textquoteright}s consumption-based emissions have much room to grow because of further development of urbanization and stimulation of domestic demand. The government should pay greater attention to controlling CO2 emissions from a consumption-based perspective.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032114006303}, author = {Zhang, Yanxia and Wang, Haikun and Liang, Sai and Xu, Ming and Liu, Weidong and Li, Shalang and Zhang, Rongrong and Nielsen, Chris P and Bi, Jun} } @article {46541, title = {The effects of recent control policies on trends in emissions of anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants and CO2 in China}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {13}, year = {2013}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {487-508}, abstract = {

To examine the effects of China{\textquoteright}s national policies of energy conservation and emission control during 2005{\textendash}2010, inter-annual emission trends of gaseous pollutants, primary aerosols, and CO2 are estimated with a bottom-up framework. The control measures led to improved energy efficiency and/or increased penetration of emission control devices at power plants and other important industrial sources, yielding reduced emission factors for all evaluated species except NOx. The national emissions of anthropogenic SO2, CO, and total primary PM (particulate matter) in 2010 are estimated to have been 89\%, 108\%, and 87\% of those in 2005, respectively, suggesting successful emission control of those species despite fast growth of the economy and energy consumption during the period. The emissions of NOx and CO2, however, are estimated to have increased by 47\% and 43\%, respectively, indicating that they remain largely determined by the growth of energy use, industrial production, and vehicle populations. Based on application of a Monte-Carlo framework, estimated uncertainties of SO2 and PM emissions increased from 2005 to 2010, resulting mainly from poorly understood average SO2 removal efficiency in flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems in the power sector, and unclear changes in the penetration levels of dust collectors at industrial sources, respectively. While emission trends determined by bottom-up methods can be generally verified by observations from both ground stations and satellites, clear discrepancies exist for given regions and seasons, indicating a need for more accurate spatial and time distributions of emissions. Limitations of current emission control polices are analyzed based on the estimated emission trends. Compared with control of total PM, there are fewer gains in control of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols, the PM components most responsible for damages to public health and effects on radiative forcing. A much faster decrease of alkaline base cations in primary PM than that of SO2 may have raised the acidification risks to ecosystems, indicating further control of acid precursors is required. Moreover, with relatively strict controls in developed urban areas, air pollution challenges have been expanding to less-developed neighboring regions. There is a great need in the future for multipollutant control strategies that combine recognition of diverse environmental impacts both in urban and rural areas with emission abatement of multiple species in concert. To examine the effects of China{\textquoteright}s national policies of energy conservation and emission control during 2005{\textendash}2010, inter-annual emission trends of gaseous pollutants, primary aerosols, and CO2 are estimated with a bottom-up framework. The control measures led to improved energy efficiency and/or increased penetration of emission control devices at power plants and other important industrial sources, yielding reduced emission factors for all evaluated species except NOx. The national emissions of anthropogenic SO2, CO, and total primary PM (particulate matter) in 2010 are estimated to have been 89\%, 108\%, and 87\% of those in 2005, respectively, suggesting successful emission control of those species despite fast growth of the economy and energy consumption during the period. The emissions of NOx and CO2, however, are estimated to have increased by 47\% and 43\%, respectively, indicating that they remain largely determined by the growth of energy use, industrial production, and vehicle populations. Based on application of a Monte-Carlo framework, estimated uncertainties of SO2 and PM emissions increased from 2005 to 2010, resulting mainly from poorly understood average SO2 removal efficiency in flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems in the power sector, and unclear changes in the penetration levels of dust collectors at industrial sources, respectively. While emission trends determined by bottom-up methods can be generally verified by observations from both ground stations and satellites, clear discrepancies exist for given regions and seasons, indicating a need for more accurate spatial and time distributions of emissions. Limitations of current emission control polices are analyzed based on the estimated emission trends. Compared with control of total PM, there are fewer gains in control of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols, the PM components most responsible for damages to public health and effects on radiative forcing. A much faster decrease of alkaline base cations in primary PM than that of SO2 may have raised the acidification risks to ecosystems, indicating further control of acid precursors is required. Moreover, with relatively strict controls in developed urban areas, air pollution challenges have been expanding to less-developed neighboring regions. There is a great need in the future for multipollutant control strategies that combine recognition of diverse environmental impacts both in urban and rural areas with emission abatement of multiple species in concert.

}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/487/2013/acp-13-487-2013.pdf}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Zhang, Jie and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {46486, title = {Optimal integration of offshore wind power for a steadier, environmentally friendlier, supply of electricity in China}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {62}, year = {2013}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {131{\textendash}138}, abstract = {

Demand for electricity in China is concentrated to a significant extent in its coastal provinces. Opportunities for production of electricity by on-shore wind facilities are greatest, however, in the north and west of the country. Using high resolution wind data derived from the GEOS-5 assimilation, this study shows that investments in off-shore wind facilities in these spatially separated regions (Bohai-Bay or BHB, Yangtze-River Delta or YRD, Pearl-River Delta or PRD)\ could make an important contribution to overall regional demand for electricity in coastal China. An optimization analysis indicates that hour-to-hour variability of outputs from a combined system can be minimized by investing 24\% of the power capacity in BHB, 30\% in YRD and 47\% in PRD. The analysis suggests that about 28\% of the overall off-shore wind potential could be deployed as base load power replacing coal-fired system with benefits not only in terms of reductions in CO2\ emissions but also in terms of improvements in regional air quality. The interconnection of off-shore wind resources contemplated here could be facilitated by China{\textquoteright}s 12th-five-year plan to strengthen inter-connections between regional electric-power grids.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513004618$\#$}, author = {Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Nielsen, Chris P and Chen, Xinyu and Huang, Junling} } @article {46526, title = {Top-down estimate of China{\textquoteright}s black carbon emissions using surface observations: Sensitivity to observation representativeness and transport model error}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {118}, year = {2013}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {5781-5795}, abstract = {

This study examines the sensitivity of {\textquotedblleft}top-down{\textquotedblright} quantification of Chinese black carbon (BC) emissions to the temporal resolution of surface observations and to the transport model error associated with the grid resolution and wet deposition. At two rural sites (Miyun in North China Plain and Chongming in Yangtze River Delta), the model-inferred emission bias based on hourly BC observations can differ by up to 41\% from that based on monthly mean observations. This difference relates to the intrinsic inability of the grid-based model in simulating high pollution plumes, which often exert a larger influence on the arithmetic mean of observations at monthly time steps. Adopting the variation of BC to carbon monoxide correlation slope with precipitation as a suitable measure to evaluate the model{\textquoteright}s wet deposition, we found that wet removal of BC in the model was too weak, due in part to the model{\textquoteright}s underestimation of large precipitation events. After filtering out the observations during high pollution plumes and large precipitation events for which the transport model error should not be translated into the emission error, the inferred emission bias changed from -11\% (without filtering) to -2\% (with filtering) at the Miyun site, and from -22\% to +1\% at the Chongming site. Using surface BC observations from three more rural sites (located in Northeast, Central, and Central South China, respectively) as constraints, our top-down estimate of total BC emissions over China was 1.80 {\textpm} 0.65 Tg/yr in 2006, 0.5\% lower than the bottom-up inventory of Zhang et al. (2009) but with smaller uncertainty.

}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50397/abstract}, author = {Wang, Xuan and Wang, Yuxuan and Hao, Jiming and Kondo, Yutaka and Irwin, Martin and J. William Munger and Zhao, Yongjing} } @article {46506, title = {Urban metabolism model based on the emergy theory: A case study of 31 Chinese cities}, journal = {Food, Agriculture and Environment}, volume = {11}, year = {2013}, pages = {2353-2361}, abstract = {

Urban systems, with the overall fluxes of energy, water, material, and wastes, can be modeled with a range of metabolic processes. To quantify the urban metabolism, we use the {\textquotedblleft}emergy{\textquotedblright} assessment method (all materials and energy are transformed to solar energy equivalents) and then present a group of urban metabolic indicators, which quantify urban metabolic balance, capacity, and outputs to assess a city{\textquoteright}s metabolic efficiencies. In this paper, we use 31 Chinese cities as a sample to illustrate how the model can be operated to evaluate the urban metabolism by emergy analysis. Our results indicate that metropolises and coastal cities were more metabolically efficient with higher metabolic balance, capacities, and outputs; but with more external dependency on imported resources. Central and western cities had lower metabolic efficiencies, with a high ratio of non-renewable emergy reliance. Policy implications highlight the need for renewable energy sources and improved management of imported services, goods, and fuels to achieve higher urban resilience and sustainability.

}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287305378_Urban_metabolism_model_based_on_the_emergy_theory_-_A_case_study_of_31_Chinese_cities}, author = {Song, Tao and Cai, Jianming and Chahine, Teresa and Deng, Yu} } @article {47126, title = {Accelerated reduction of SO2 emissions from the US power sector triggered by changing prices of natural gas}, journal = {Environmental Science and Technology}, volume = {46}, year = {2012}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH
This paper is from a series investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.

}, pages = {7882-7889}, abstract = {Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the U.S. power sector decreased by 24\% in 2009 relative to 2008. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach was applied to isolate the factors responsible for this decrease. It is concluded that 15\% of the decrease can be attributed to the drop in demand for electricity triggered by the economic recession, and 28\% can be attributed to switching of fuel from coal to gas responding to the decrease in prices for the latter. The largest factor in the decrease, close to 57\%, resulted from an overall decline in emissions per unit of power generated from coal. This is attributed in part to selective idling of older, less efficient coal plants that generally do not incorporate technology for sulfur removal, and in part to continued investments by the power sector in removal equipment in response to the requirements limiting emissions imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). The paper argues further that imposition of a modest tax on emissions of carbon would have ancillary benefits in terms of emissions of SO2.}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es301023c}, author = {Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Wu, Gang and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {47146, title = {China{\textquoteright}s CO2 emissions estimated from the bottom up: Recent trends, spatial distributions, and quantification of uncertainties}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {59}, year = {2012}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH

Click here to see coverage in United Press International (http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/07/06/Estimate-of-China-emission-said-best-yet/UPI-88211341605459/) and ScienceDaily (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120706105419.htm).

}, pages = {214-223}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s emissions of anthropogenic CO2 are estimated using a bottom-up emission inventory framework based on a detailed categorization of economic sectors and provincial economic and energy data. It includes a newly compiled database of CO2 emission factors employing the latest field study results from China. Total annual emissions are estimated to have risen from 7126 to 9370 Mt CO2 from 2005 to 2009. Recent policies to conserve energy and reduce emissions have been effective in limiting CO2 emissions from power and iron \& steel plants, but have had little effect on those from cement production. The uncertainties of China{\textquoteright}s CO2 emissions are quantified for the first time using Monte-Carlo simulation, producing a 95\% confidence interval (CI) of\ -9\% to\ +11\% for total emissions in 2005. The largest contributors to sector-level emission uncertainty are emission factors for most industrial sources and activity levels for power plants, transportation, and residential \& commercial sources. Application of province-level energy consumption and China-specific emission factors in some sectors results in higher annual emission estimates for 2005-2008 as compared with other studies, although most of those are within the 95\% CIs of this study.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231012004761}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47156, title = {CO emissions in China: Uncertainties and implications of improved energy efficiency and emission control}, journal = { Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {49}, year = {2012}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {103-113}, abstract = {A bottom-up methodology and an improved database of emission factors combining the latest domestic field measurements are developed to estimate the emissions of anthropogenic CO from China at national and provincial levels. The CO emission factors for major economic sectors declined to varying degrees from 2005 to 2009, attributed to improved energy efficiency and/or emission control regulations. Total national CO emissions are estimated at 173\ Tg for 2005 and have been relatively stable for subsequent years, despite fast growth of energy consumption and industrial production. While industry and transportation sources dominated CO emissions in developed eastern and north-central China, residential combustion played a much greater role in the less developed western provinces. The uncertainties of national Chinese CO emissions are quantified using Monte Carlo simulation at\ -20\% to\ +45\% (95\% confidence interval). Due to poor understanding of emission factors and activity levels for combustion of solid fuels, the largest uncertainties are found for emissions from the residential sector. The trends of bottom-up emissions compare reasonably to satellite observation of CO columns and to ground observations of CO2{\textendash}CO correlation slopes. The increase in the ratio for emissions of CO2 relative to CO suggests that China has successfully improved combustion efficiencies across its economy in recent years, consistent with national policies to improve energy efficiency and to control criteria air pollutants.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231011012672}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P and McElroy, Michael B. and Zhang, Lin and Zhang, Jie} } @article {47121, title = {The contemporary and historical budget of atmospheric CO2}, journal = {Canadian Journal of Physics}, volume = {90}, year = {2012}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {707-716}, abstract = {Observations of CO2 and O2 are interpreted to develop an understanding of the changes in the abundance of atmospheric CO2 that have arisen over the period 1995{\textendash}2007. Fossil fuels accounted for an addition of 89.3 Gt of carbon to the atmosphere over this time period, 29\% of which was transferred to the ocean, 15\% to the global biosphere, with the balance (57\%) retained by the atmosphere. Analysis of historical data for CO2 derived from studies of gases trapped in ice at Law Dome in Antarctica indicate that the biosphere represented a net source of atmospheric CO2 prior to 1940, switching subsequently to a net sink.}, url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/p2012-033$\#$.Ue6V1m3t7XZ}, author = {Huang, Junling and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47136, title = {A dynamic programming model of China{\textquoteright}s strategic petroleum reserve: General strategy and the effect of emergencies}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {34}, year = {2012}, pages = {1234-1243}, abstract = {To protect the security of energy supply, China is building national strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). We present a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies for China{\textquoteright}s SPR under various scenarios, focusing on minimizing the total cost of reserves. In contrast to previous research, the oil price given in our model is exogenous on a monthly instead of annual basis, with a view to more realistic simulation of optimal strategies each year. Our model results show that in the case where stockpiling affects oil prices, a given SPR size will be achieved earlier than when stockpiling does not affect oil prices. In different emergency conditions, the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies of China{\textquoteright}s SPR are very different. When an emergency occurs, the shock of stockpiling on the oil price per barrel could range $0.49{\textendash}$6.35, while the impact of drawdown on the oil price per barrel could range -$6.22 to -$0.48.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988311002829}, author = {Wu, Gang and Wei, Yi-Ming and Nielsen, Chris P and Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47131, title = {Implications of the recent reductions in natural gas prices for emissions of CO2 from the US power sector}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology}, volume = {46}, year = {2012}, note = {

Final Manuscript in DASH
This paper is from a series investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.; click here (http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/02/model-situation/) to see coverage in the Harvard Gazette.

}, pages = {3014{\textendash}3021}, abstract = {CO2 emissions from the US power sector decreased by 8.76\% in 2009 relative to 2008 contributing to a decrease over this period of 6.59\% in overall US emissions of greenhouse gases. An econometric model, tuned to data reported for regional generation of US electricity, is used to diagnose factors responsible for the 2009 decrease. More than half of the reduction is attributed to a shift from generation of power using coal to gas driven by a recent decrease in gas prices in response to the increase in production from shale. An important result of the model is that, when the cost differential for generation using gas rather than coal falls below 2{\textendash}3 cents/kWh, less efficient coal fired plants are displaced by more efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation alternatives. Costs for generation using NGCC decreased by close to 4 cents/kWh in 2009 relative to 2008 ensuring that generation of electricity using gas was competitive with coal in 2009 in contrast to the situation in 2008 when gas prices were much higher. A modest price on carbon could contribute to additional switching from coal to gas with further savings in CO2 emissions.}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es203750k}, author = {Lu, Xi and Salovaara, Jackson and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47366, title = {Autos, transit and bicycles: Comparing the costs in large Chinese cities}, journal = {Transport Policy}, volume = {18}, year = {2011}, pages = {139-146}, abstract = {This study compares the full costs of seven passenger modes in the large Chinese cities facing the difficult yet crucial choice among alternative passenger transportation systems. The seven modes are evaluated at varied traffic volumes in hypothetical radial and circumferential commuting corridors. Using detailed estimates of private and social costs, the full cost of each mode is minimized by optimizing infrastructure investment and operation plans. On all corridors and across different scenarios, commuting by one or more forms of bus transit or bicycle costs less than automobile or rail. Nonetheless, in circumferential corridors, rail can be almost as cost-effective as bus under certain conditions, and bicycle can be less cost-effective than bus in some cases. Unlike results from similar studies conducted in the US, automobile commuting does not cost less than bus transportation at low traffic volumes.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X10000910}, author = {Wang, Rui} } @article {47386, title = {Black carbon and its correlation with trace gases at a rural site in Beijing: implications for regional emissions}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {116}, year = {2011}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, abstract = {The mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) were measured continuously at Miyun, a rural site near Beijing, concurrently with some trace gases (CO, CO2, NOy, SO2) during the nonheating seasons of 2010 (April to October). The average concentration of BC was 2.26 {\textpm} 2.33 μg m-3. About 70\%{\textendash}100\% of the air masses arriving at the site from June to September were from the source region of Beijing and the North China Plain (NCP), while in the spring, 40\% were of continental background origin. BC had moderate to strong positive correlations with CO (R2 = 0.51), NOy (R2 = 0.58), and CO2 (nonsummer, R2 = 0.54), but not with SO2 (R2 \< 0.1). The observed ΔBC/ΔCO ratio was 0.0050 {\textpm} 0.0001 μg m-3/ppbv for the regional air masses (excluding the influence of biomass burning). This ratio increased by 68\% to 0.0084 {\textpm} 0.0004 μg m-3/ppbv after excluding the influence of wet deposition. Accounting further for the impact of atmospheric processes on the observation, we derived an average top-down BC/CO emission ratio of 0.0095 {\textpm} 0.002 μg m-3/ppbv for the source region of Beijing and NCP that is 18\%{\textendash}21\% lower than the average emission ratio from the bottom-up inventory of Zhang et al. (2009), whereas the difference is substantially lower than the uncertainty of emissions for either species. The difference between the mean bottom-up and top-down emission ratios is most likely to be attributed to the residential sector, which needs to have a lower share in the total emissions of BC or a much lower BC/CO emission ratio. The industry and transportation sectors are found to be dominant sources of BC from Beijing and the NCP rather than from the residential sector as suggested by the bottom-up inventory.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016575/abstract}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and Wang, Xuan and Kondo, Yutaka and Kajino, Mizuo and J. William Munger and Hao, Jiming} } @article {47351, title = {Costs for integrating wind into the future ERCOT system with related costs for savings in CO2 emissions}, journal = {Environmental Science and Technology}, volume = {45}, year = {2011}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH
This is from a series of papers investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.

}, pages = {3160-3166}, abstract = {Wind power can make an important contribution to the goal of reducing emissions of CO2. The major problem relates to the intrinsic variability of the source and the difficulty of reconciling the supply of electricity with demand particularly at high levels of wind penetration. This challenge is explored for the case of the ERCOT system in Texas. Demand for electricity in Texas is projected to increase by approximately 60\% by 2030. Considering hourly load data reported for 2006, assuming that the pattern of demand in 2030 should be similar to 2006, and adopting as a business as usual (BAU) reference an assumption that the anticipated additional electricity should be supplied by a combination of coal and gas with prices, discounted to 2007 dollars of $2 and $6 per MMBTU respectively, we conclude that the bus-bar price for electricity would increase by about 1.1{\textcent}/kWh at a wind penetration level of 30\%, by about 3.4 {\textcent}/kWh at a penetration level of 80\%. Corresponding costs for reductions in CO2 range from $20/ton to $60/ton. A number of possibilities are discussed that could contribute to a reduction in these costs including the impact of an expanded future fleet of electrically driven vehicles.}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es103948t}, author = {Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Sluzas, Nora} } @article {47336, title = {Detection from space of a reduction in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides during the Chinese economic downturn}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {11}, year = {2011}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {8171-8188}, abstract = {Rapid economic and industrial development in
China and relatively weak emission controls have resulted in
significant increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
in recent years, with the exception of late 2008 to mid 2009
when the economic downturn led to emission reductions detectable
from space. Here vertical column densities (VCDs)
of tropospheric NO2 retrieved from satellite observations by
SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI (both by KNMI and by
NASA) are used to evaluate changes in emissions of NOx
from October 2004 to February 2010 identifying impacts of
the economic downturn. Data over polluted regions of Northern
East China suggest an increase of 27{\textendash}33\% in 12-month
mean VCD of NO2 prior to the downturn, consistent with an
increase of 49\% in thermal power generation (TPG) reflecting
the economic growth. More detailed analysis is used to
quantify changes in emissions of NOx in January over the
period 2005{\textendash}2010 when the effect of the downturn was most
evident. The GEOS-Chem model is employed to evaluate
the effect of changes in chemistry and meteorology on VCD
of NO2. This analysis indicates that emissions decreased by
20\% from January 2008 to January 2009, close to the reduction
of 18\% in TPG that occurred over the same interval. A
combination of three independent approaches indicates that
the economic downturn was responsible for a reduction in
emissions by 9{\textendash}11\% in January 2009 with an additional decrease
of 10\%attributed to the slow-down in industrial activity
associated with the coincident celebration of the Chinese
New Year; errors in the estimate are most likely less than
3.4 \%.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/11/8171/2011/acp-11-8171-2011.pdf}, author = {Lin, Jintai and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47356, title = {The impact of production tax credits on the profitable production of electricity from wind in the U.S.}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {39}, year = {2011}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH
This paper is from a series investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.

}, pages = {4207-4214}, abstract = {A spatial financial model using wind data derived from assimilated meteorological condition was developed to investigate the profitability and competitiveness of onshore wind power in the contiguous U.S. It considers not only the resulting estimated capacity factors for hypothetical wind farms but also the geographically differentiated costs of local grid connection. The levelized cost of wind-generated electricity for the contiguous U.S. is evaluated assuming subsidy levels from the Production Tax Credit (PTC) varying from 0 to 4\ {\textcent}/kWh under three cost scenarios: a reference case, a high cost case, and a low cost case. The analysis indicates that in the reference scenario, current PTC subsidies of 2.1\ {\textcent}/kWh are at a critical level in determining the competitiveness of wind-generated electricity compared to conventional power generation in local power market. Results from this study suggest that the potential for profitable wind power with the current PTC subsidy amounts to more than seven times existing demand for electricity in the entire U.S. Understanding the challenges involved in scaling up wind energy requires further study of the external costs associated with improvement of the backbone transmission network and integration into the power grid of the variable electricity generated from wind.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151100317X}, author = {Lu, Xi and Tchou, Jeremy and McElroy, Michael B. and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {47316, title = {An inventory of primary air pollutants and CO2 emissions from cement production in China, 1990-2020}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {45}, year = {2011}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {147-154}, abstract = {Direct emissions of air pollutants from the cement industry in China were estimated by developing a technology-based methodology using information on the proportion of cement produced from different types of kilns and the emission standards for the Chinese cement industry. Historical emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were estimated for the years 1990{\textendash}2008, and future emissions were projected up to 2020 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. Compared with the historical high (4.36\ Tg of PM2.5, 7.16\ Tg of PM10 and 10.44\ Tg of TSP in 1997), PM emissions are predicted to drop substantially by 2020, despite the expected tripling of cement production. Certain other air pollutant emissions, such as CO and SO2, are also predicted to decrease with the progressive closure of shaft kilns. NOX emissions, however, could increase because of the promotion of precalciner kilns and the rapid increase of cement production. CO2 emissions from the cement industry account for approximately one eighth of China{\textquoteright}s national CO2 emissions. Our analysis indicates that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions from this industry by approximately 12.8\% if advanced energy-related technologies are implemented. These technologies will bring co-benefits in reducing other air pollutants as well.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231010008095}, author = {Lei, Yu and Zhang, Qiang and Nielsen, Chris P and He, Kebin} } @article {47406, title = {Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Public health, soil acidification, and global temperature}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment }, volume = {409}, year = {2011}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {5177-5187}, abstract = {Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4\% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95\% confidence interval: 1{\textendash}7\%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969711008904}, author = {Zhao, Yu and McElroy, Michael B. and Xing, Jia and Duan, Lei and Nielsen, Chris P and Lei, Yu and Hao, Jiming} } @article {47321, title = {Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990-2005}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {11}, year = {2011}, pages = {931-954}, abstract = {An inventory of anthropogenic primary aerosol
emissions in China was developed for 1990{\textendash}2005 using a
technology-based approach. Taking into account changes
in the technology penetration within industry sectors and
improvements in emission controls driven by stricter emission
standards, a dynamic methodology was derived and implemented
to estimate inter-annual emission factors. Emission
factors of PM2.5 decreased by 7\%{\textendash}69\% from 1990 to
2005 in different industry sectors of China, and emission factors
of TSP decreased by 18\%{\textendash}80\% as well, with the measures
of controlling PM emissions implemented. As a result,
emissions of PM2.5 and TSP in 2005 were 11.0 Tg and
29.7 Tg, respectively, less than what they would have been
without the adoption of these measures. Emissions of PM2.5,
PM10 and TSP presented similar trends: they increased in
the first six years of 1990s and decreased until 2000, then
increased again in the following years. Emissions of TSP
peaked (35.5 Tg) in 1996, while the peak of PM10 (18.8 Tg)
and PM2.5 (12.7 Tg) emissions occurred in 2005. Although
various emission trends were identified across sectors, the cement
industry and biofuel combustion in the residential sector
were consistently the largest sources of PM2.5 emissions,
accounting for 53\%{\textendash}62\% of emissions over the study period.
The non-metallic mineral product industry, including the cement,
lime and brick industries, accounted for 54\%{\textendash}63\% of
national TSP emissions. There were no significant trends of
BC and OC emissions until 2000, but the increase after 2000
brought the peaks of BC (1.51 Tg) and OC (3.19 Tg) emissions
in 2005. Although significant improvements in the estimation
of primary aerosols are presented here, there still
exist large uncertainties. More accurate and detailed activity
information and emission factors based on local tests are essential
to further improve emission estimates, this especially
being so for the brick and coke industries, as well as for coal.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/11/931/2011/acp-11-931-2011.pdf}, author = {Lei, Yu and Zhang, Qiang and He, Kebin and Streets, David G} } @article {47391, title = {Quantifying the uncertainties of a bottom-up emission inventory of anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants in China}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {11}, year = {2011}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {2295-2308}, abstract = {The uncertainties of a national, bottom-up inventory
of Chinese emissions of anthropogenic SO2, NOx, and
particulate matter (PM) of different size classes and carbonaceous
species are comprehensively quantified, for the first
time, using Monte Carlo simulation. The inventory is structured
by seven dominant sectors: coal-fired electric power,
cement, iron and steel, other industry (boiler combustion),
other industry (non-combustion processes), transportation,
and residential. For each parameter related to emission factors
or activity-level calculations, the uncertainties, represented
as probability distributions, are either statistically fitted
using results of domestic field tests or, when these are
lacking, estimated based on foreign or other domestic data.
The uncertainties (i.e., 95\% confidence intervals around the
central estimates) of Chinese emissions of SO2, NOx, total
PM, PM10, PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon
(OC) in 2005 are estimated to be -14\%13\%, -13\%37\%,
-11\%38\%, -14\%45\%, -17\%54\%, -25\%136\%,
and -40\%121\%, respectively. Variations at activity levels
(e.g., energy consumption or industrial production) are
not the main source of emission uncertainties. Due to narrow
classification of source types, large sample sizes, and
relatively high data quality, the coal-fired power sector is estimated
to have the smallest emission uncertainties for all
species except BC and OC. Due to poorer source classifications
and a wider range of estimated emission factors,
considerable uncertainties of NOx and PM emissions from
cement production and boiler combustion in other industries
are found. The probability distributions of emission
factors for biomass burning, the largest source of BC and
OC, are fitted based on very limited domestic field measurements,
and special caution should thus be taken interpreting
these emission uncertainties. Although Monte Carlo simulation
yields narrowed estimates of uncertainties compared
to previous bottom-up emission studies, the results are not
always consistent with those derived from satellite observations.
The results thus represent an incremental research
advance; while the analysis provides current estimates of
uncertainty to researchers investigating Chinese and global
atmospheric transport and chemistry, it also identifies specific
needs in data collection and analysis to improve on
them. Strengthened quantification of emissions of the included
species and other, closely associated ones {\textendash} notably
CO2, generated largely by the same processes and thus subject
to many of the same parameter uncertainties {\textendash} is essential
not only for science but for the design of policies to redress
critical atmospheric environmental hazards at local, regional,
and global scales.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/11/2295/2011/acp-11-2295-2011.pdf}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Nielsen, Chris P and Lei, Yu and McElroy, Michael B. and Hao, Jiming} } @article {47401, title = {Will PM control undermine China{\textquoteright}s efforts to reduce soil acidification?}, journal = {Environmental Pollution}, volume = {159}, year = {2011}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {2726-2732}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s strategies to control acidifying pollutants and particulate matter (PM) may be in conflict for soil acidification abatement. Acidifying pollutant emissions are estimated for 2005 and 2020 with anticipated control policies. PM emissions including base cations (BCs) are evaluated with two scenarios, a base case applying existing policy to 2020, and a control case including anticipated tightened measures. Depositions of sulfur (S), nitrogen (N) and BCs are simulated and their acidification risks are evaluated with critical load (CL). In 2005, the area exceeding CL covered 15.6\% of mainland China, with total exceedance of 2.2\ Mt S. These values decrease in the base scenario 2020, implying partial recovery from acidification. Under more realistic PM control, the respective estimates are 17.9\% and 2.4\ Mt S, indicating increased acidification risks due to abatement of acid-neutralizing BCs. China{\textquoteright}s anthropogenic PM abatement will have potentially stronger chemical implications for acidification than developed countries.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749111002855}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Duan, Lei and Lei, Yu and Xing, Jia and Nielsen, Chris P and Hao, Jiming} } @article {1559581, title = {Technology, development, and the environment}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, volume = {59}, year = {2010}, pages = {94-108}, abstract = {In an attempt to achieve the positive externalities from a more knowledge-intensive economy, many developing countries have emphasized improvements in their science and technology (S\&T) capabilities. China, in particular, has been experiencing an acceleration in its R\&D intensity, causing many to wonder whether China is undergoing an S\&T takeoff. In this paper, we simulate the effects of an S\&T takeoff using a model of China that incorporates econometric estimates from 1500 industrial enterprises in China. We find that an S\&T takeoff will lead to lower goods prices overall, but a larger drop in energy prices due to the energy-saving bias of R\&D. The outcome is higher capital investment and economic growth; a substitution of energy for other factors of production; and greater energy consumption by households. Our findings underscore the importance of considering the economy-wide implications of a technology policy, recognizing that better technology does not necessarily imply a cleaner environment.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0095069609000849}, author = {Karen Fisher-Vanden and Mun S. Ho} } @article {47436, title = {Challenge of global climate change: Prospects for a new energy paradigm}, journal = {Frontiers of Environmental Science \& Engineering in China }, volume = {4}, year = {2010}, pages = {2-11}, abstract = {Perspectives on the challenge posed by potential future climate change are presented including a discussion of prospects for carbon capture followed either by sequestration or reuse including opportunities for alternatives to the use of oil in the transportation sector. The potential for wind energy as an alternative to fossil fuel energy as a source of electricity is outlined including the related opportunities for cost effective curtailment of future growth in emissions of CO2.}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11783-010-0005-8}, author = {McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47481, title = {CO2 and its correlation with CO at a rural site near Beijing: Implications for combustion efficiency in China}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {10}, year = {2010}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {8881-8897}, abstract = {Although China has surpassed the United States\ as the world{\textquoteright}s largest carbon dioxide emitter, in situ measurements\ of atmospheric CO2 have been sparse in China.\ This paper analyzes hourly CO2 and its correlation with CO\ at Miyun, a rural site near Beijing, over a period of 51 months\ (Dec 2004 through Feb 2009). The CO2-CO correlation analysis\ evaluated separately for each hour of the day provides\ useful information with statistical significance even in the\ growing season. We found that the intercept, representing the\ initial condition imposed by global distribution of CO2 with\ influence of photosynthesis and respiration, exhibits diurnal\ cycles differing by season. The background CO2 (CO2,b)\ derived from Miyun observations is comparable to CO2 observed\ at a Mongolian background station to the northwest.\ Annual growth of overall mean CO2 at Miyun is estimated at\ 2.7 ppm yr-1 while that of CO2,b is only 1.7 ppm yr-1 similar\ to the mean growth rate at northern mid-latitude background\ stations. This suggests a relatively faster increase in the regional\ CO2 sources in China than the global average, consistent\ with bottom-up studies of CO2 emissions. For air masses\ with trajectories through the northern China boundary layer,\ mean winter CO2/CO correlation slopes (dCO2/dCO) increased\ by 2.8{\textpm}0.9 ppmv/ppmv or 11\% from 2005{\textendash}2006 to\ 2007{\textendash}2008, with CO2 increasing by 1.8 ppmv. The increase\ in dCO2/dCO indicates improvement in overall combustion\ efficiency over northern China after winter 2007, attributed\ to pollution reduction measures associated with the 2008\ Beijing Olympics. The observed CO2/CO ratio at Miyun is\ 25\% higher than the bottom-up CO2/CO emission ratio, suggesting\ a contribution of respired CO2 from urban residents\ as well as agricultural soils and livestock in the observations\ and uncertainty in the emission estimates.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/8881/2010/acp-10-8881-2010.pdf}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and J. William Munger and Xu, Shicheng and McElroy, Michael B. and Hao, Jiming and Nielsen, Chris P and Ma, Hong} } @article {47421, title = {Constraint of anthropogenic NOx emissions in China from different sectors: A new methodology using separate satellite retrievals}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {10}, year = {2010}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {63-78}, abstract = {A new methodology is developed to constrain
Chinese anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
from four major sectors (industry, power plants, mobile and
residential) in July 2008. It combines tropospheric NO2 column
retrievals from GOME-2 and OMI, taking advantage
of their different passing time over China (10:00 a.m. LT
(local time) versus 02:00 p.m.) and consistent retrieval algorithms.
The approach is based on the difference of NOx
columns at the overpass times of the two instruments; it thus
is less susceptible to the likely systematic errors embedded
in individual retrievals that are consistent with each other.
Also, it explicitly accounts for diurnal variations and uncertainties
of NOx emissions for individual sources. Our best
top-down estimate suggests a national budget of 6.8 TgN/yr
(5.5 TgN/yr for East China), close to the a priori bottom-up
emission estimate from the INTEX-B mission for the year of
2006. The top-down emissions are lower than the a priori
near Beijing, in the northeastern provinces and along the east
coast; yet they exceed the a priori over many inland regions.
Systematic errors in satellite retrievals are estimated to lead
to underestimation of top-down emissions by at most 17\%
(most likely 10\%). Effects of other factors on the top-down
estimate are typically less than 15\% each, including lightning,
soil emissions, mixing in planetary boundary layer, anthropogenic
emissions of carbon monoxide and volatile organic
compounds, magnitude of a priori emissions, assumptions
on emission diurnal variations, and uncertainties in the
four sectors. The a posteriori emission budget is 5.7 TgN/yr
for East China.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/63/2010/acp-10-63-2010.pdf}, author = {Lin, Jin-Tai and McElroy, Michael B. and Boersma, K. Folkert} } @article {47496, title = {Establishment of a database of emission factors for atmospheric pollutant emissions from Chinese coal-fired power plants}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {44}, year = {2010}, pages = {1515-1523}, abstract = {Field measurements and data investigations were conducted for developing an emission factor database for inventories of atmospheric pollutants from Chinese coal-fired power plants. Gaseous pollutants and particulate matter (PM) of different size fractions were measured using a gas analyzer and an electric low-pressure impactor (ELPI), respectively, for ten units in eight coal-fired power plants across the country. Combining results of field tests and literature surveys, emission factors with 95\% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by boiler type, fuel quality, and emission control devices using bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations. The emission factor of uncontrolled SO2 from pulverized combustion (PC) boilers burning bituminous or anthracite coal was estimated to be 18.0S\ kg\ t-1 (i.e., 18.0\ {\texttimes}\ the percentage sulfur content of coal, S) with a 95\% CI of 17.2S{\textendash}18.5S. NOX emission factors for pulverized-coal boilers ranged from 4.0 to 11.2\ kg\ t-1, with uncertainties of 14{\textendash}45\% for different unit types. The emission factors of uncontrolled PM2.5, PM10, and total PM emitted by PC boilers were estimated to be 0.4A (where A is the percentage ash content of coal), 1.5A and 6.9A\ kg\ t-1, respectively, with 95\% CIs of 0.3A{\textendash}0.5A, 1.1A{\textendash}1.9A and 5.8A{\textendash}7.9A. The analogous PM values for emissions with electrostatic precipitator (ESP) controls were 0.032A (95\% CI: 0.021A{\textendash}0.046A), 0.065A (0.039A{\textendash}0.092A) and 0.094A (0.0656A{\textendash}0.132A)\ kg\ t-1, and 0.0147A (0.0092{\textendash}0.0225A), 0.0210A (0.0129A{\textendash}0.0317A), and 0.0231A (0.0142A{\textendash}0.0348A) for those with both ESP and wet flue-gas desulfurization (wet-FGD). SO2 and NOX emission factors for Chinese power plants were smaller than those of U.S. EPA AP-42 database, due mainly to lower heating values of coals in China. PM emission factors for units with ESP, however, were generally larger than AP-42 values, because of poorer removal efficiencies of Chinese dust collectors. For units with advanced emission control technologies, more field measurements are needed to reduce emission factor uncertainties.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231010000439}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Wang, Shuxiao and Nielsen, Chris P and Li, Xinghua and Hao, Jiming} } @article {47426, title = {Impacts of boundary layer mixing on pollutant vertical profiles in the lower troposphere: Implications to satellite remote sensing}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {44}, year = {2010}, pages = {1726-1739}, abstract = {Mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) affects vertical distributions of air tracers in the lower troposphere. An accurate representation of PBL mixing is critical for chemical-transport models (CTMs) for applications sensitive to simulations of the vertical profiles of tracers. The full mixing assumption in the widely used global CTM GEOS-Chem has recently been supplemented with a non-local PBL scheme. This study analyzes the impact of the non-local scheme on model representation of PBL mixing, consequences for simulations of vertical profiles of air tracers and surface air pollution, and implications for model applications to the interpretation of data retrieved from satellite remote sensing. The non-local scheme significantly improves simulations of the vertical distributions for NO2 and O3, as evaluated using aircraft measurements in summer 2004. It also reduces model biases over the U.S. by more than 10\ ppb for surface ozone concentrations at night and by 2{\textendash}5\ ppb for peak ozone in the afternoon, as evaluated using ground observations. The application to inverse modeling of anthropogenic NOx emissions for East China using satellite retrievals of NO2 from OMI and GOME-2 suggests that the full mixing assumption results in 3{\textendash}14\% differences in top{\textendash}down emission budgets as compared to the non-local scheme. The top{\textendash}down estimate combining the non-local scheme and the Lin et\ al. inverse modeling approach suggests a magnitude of 6.6\ TgN\ yr-1 for emissions of NOx over East China in July 2008 and 8.0\ TgN\ yr-1 for January 2009, with the magnitude and seasonality in good agreement with bottom{\textendash}up estimates.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231010001147}, author = {Lin, Jin-Tai and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47451, title = {Linking travel behavior and location in Chengdu, China: A geographically weighted approach}, journal = {Transportation Research Record}, volume = {2193}, year = {2010}, pages = {85-95}, abstract = {This study uses geographically weighted regressions and multilevel models to understand the implications of location and attitudinal characteristics for travel behavior in Chengdu, China. In particular, the estimated distance traveled and the mode choice of nonmotorized versus motorized vehicles for work- and school-related trips were examined by using a recent household trip diary data set. The results suggest that location characteristics may be influential in the prediction of travel behavior but cannot be fully captured by simple categorization such as inner ring location versus peripheral location. Variations in travel behavior can be related to socioeconomic and location variables in ways that vary by location in a complex manner. Policy makers should therefore reconsider the role that location and attitudinal implications may play in meeting travel demand in rapidly developing cities like Chengdu.}, url = {http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2193-11}, author = {Srinivasan, Sumeeta} } @article {47416, title = {Modeling private car ownership in China: Investigating the impact of urban form across mega-cities}, journal = {Transportation Research Record }, volume = {2193}, year = {2010}, note = {

This paper uses data from the Project{\textquoteright}s household survey in Chengdu, Sichuan.

}, pages = {76-84}, abstract = {The rising prevalence of private cars in the developing world is causing serious congestion and pollution. In China, private cars started to emerge as an important travel mode in the past decade. Prospective research on the relationship between urban form and car ownership is relatively uncommon in the developing world, and China offers a unique study opportunity, given the tremendous increases in private cars and fast-paced urbanization over the past decade. This study investigates the influence of urban form on car ownership as well as the impact of other socioeconomic and demographic factors on private car ownership across megacities in China. Analysis was conducted through the use of data from 36 megacities and two household survey data sets collected in Beijing and the city of Chengdu, China. Ordinary least squares regression and discrete choice models were employed to execute the aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the urban form impact on private car ownership across cities. The statistical model results demonstrate that urban affluence, urban scale, and road infrastructure supply factors have significant positive effects on the city level of private car ownership across cities. Population density calculated at the subdistrict level, however, had a significant negative effect on private car ownership across cities. Households with private cars were found to prefer to live close to urban centers where amenities were readily available. The results provide evidence for urban planners and policy makers.}, url = {http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2193-10}, author = {Li, Jieping and Walker, Joan L and Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Anderson, William P} } @article {47431, title = {Recent changes in particulate air pollution over China observed from space and ground: Effectiveness of emission control}, journal = {Environmental Science and Technology}, volume = {44}, year = {2010}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {7771-7776}, abstract = {The Chinese government has moved aggressively since 2005 to reduce emissions of a number of pollutants including primary particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), efforts inadvertently aided since late 2008 by economic recession. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) provide independent indicators of emission trends, clearly reflecting the sharp onset of the recession in the fall of 2008 and rebound of the economy in the latter half of 2009. Comparison of AOD with ground-based observations of PM over a longer period indicate that emission-control policies have not been successful in reducing concentrations of aerosol pollutants at smaller size range over industrialized regions of China. The lack of success is attributed to the increasing importance of anthropogenic secondary aerosols formed from precursor species including nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), and ammonia (NH3).}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es101094t}, author = {Lin, Jintai and Nielsen, Chris P and Zhao, Yu and Lei, Yu and Liu, Yang and McElroy, Michael B.} } @article {47456, title = {Travel demand models in the developing world: Correcting for measurement errors}, journal = {Transportation Letters}, volume = {2}, year = {2010}, note = {

This paper is based on data from the Project{\textquoteright}s household survey in Chengdu, Sichuan.

}, pages = {231-243}, abstract = {While transport modelers in developed countries are accustomed to working with relatively rich datasets including transport networks and land use data, such databases are rarely available in developing countries. However, developing countries such as China with its immense rate of economic growth are, arguably, most in need of demand models. The research addressed in this paper is how to develop mode choice models for planning and policy analysis when high quality level of service data are not available. The research makes use of a 1,001 household travel and activity survey from Chengdu collected by the China Project at Harvard University in 2005. Chengdu has an urban population of over 3 million and a GDP growth rate of over 20\% per year. The survey contains a rich array of self-assessed information on available modes and accessibility and also includes a number of attitudinal questions. The approach taken here is to treat level of service as a latent (i.e., unobservable) variable. Measurement equations (from the structural equation model paradigm) are used to infer latent level of service, and these equations are integrated with the mode choice model. Our initial results indicate that models that do not correct for measurement error may significantly underestimate travelers{\textquoteright} values of time. The methodological approach employed has potential for improving models estimated with higher quality network data, because it can correct for measurement error that exists, for example, in network-derived level of service variables.}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228644124_Travel_demand_models_in_the_developing_world_Correcting_for_measurement_errors}, author = {Walker, Joan L and Li, Jieping and Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Bolduc, Denis} } @article {47466, title = {Year-round measurements of O3 and CO at a rural site near Beijing: Variations in their correlations}, journal = {Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology}, volume = {62}, year = {2010}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {228-241}, abstract = {We examine seasonal variations of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and their relationships observed over the course of 3 yr (2005{\textendash}2007) at Miyun, a rural site 100 km north of Beijing. Monthly mean afternoon mixing ratios of CO have broad maxima in winter and a secondary peak in June. Monthly mean afternoon O3 shows a clear seasonal pattern with a major peak in June (85 ppb), a secondary peak in September (65 ppb) and minimum in winter (50{\textendash}55 ppb). The seasonal cycles of O3 and CO are associated with seasonal changes in dominant synoptic pattern. Substantial interannual variability is found for CO which is attributed to the interannual variability of meteorology and emissions from biomass burning. The seasonality and magnitude of background CO and O3 derived at Miyun are consistent with observations at upwind remote continental sites. The O3{\textendash}CO correlation slope is about 0.07 ppb ppb-1 on average in summer, significantly lower than the typical slope of 0.3 ppb ppb-1 reported for developed countries. The O3{\textendash}CO correlation slope shows large gradients for different types of air masses (0.133 {\textpm} 0.017 ppb ppb-1 in aged urban pollution plumes and 0.047 {\textpm} 0.008 ppb ppb-1 in biomass burning plumes), suggesting that the conventional method of direct scaling the mean O3{\textendash}CO slope by CO emissions to deduce O3 production rate is subject to large uncertainties if applied for China.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00464.x/abstract}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and McElroy, Michael B. and J. William Munger and Hao, Jiming and Ma, Hong and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {47946, title = {China{\textquoteright}s 11th Five-Year Plan and the environment: Reducing SO2 emissions}, journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy}, volume = {3}, year = {2009}, pages = {189-208}, abstract = {China{\textquoteright}s rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a high level of environmental degradation. One of the major sources of health and ecosystem damages is sulfur dioxide (SO2). Reducing SO2 emissions is a priority of China{\textquoteright}s environmental authorities, and the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006{\textendash}2010) includes the target of reducing total SO2 emissions by 10 percent from the 2005 level. Given the rapid increase in SO2 emissions that is expected to occur in absence of intervention, attaining this target will require a significant effort. This article examines the two major policy measures the government is taking to achieve the SO2 target: a shutdown of many small, inefficient power plants and the installation of desulfurization equipment on existing and new coal-fired plants. We present results from a joint U.S.{\textendash}China study that we participated in, which estimated the costs and benefits of these policies. We then estimate the economy-wide impacts of the two policies using a multisector model of the Chinese economy. We find that in the aggregate, the economic benefits of the shutdown of the small power plants are large enough to offset the costs of the desulfurization equipment, even without considering the substantial environmental benefits from the reduction of emissions of SO2 and other pollutants.}, url = {http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/content/3/2/231.abstract}, author = {Cao, Jing and Garbaccio, Richard and Ho, Mun S} } @article {47971, title = {Compensating wage differentials with unemployment: Evidence from China}, journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, volume = {42}, year = {2009}, note = {

This study developed a new approach to the valuation of health risk in China, for monetizing health damages of environmental degradation.

}, pages = {187-209}, abstract = {We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers{\textquoteright} preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-008-9217-9}, author = {Guo, Xiaoqi and Hammitt, James K} } @article {48006, title = {Explicit calculation of indirect global warming potentials for halons using atmospheric models}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {9}, year = {2009}, pages = {8719-8733}, abstract = {The concept of Global Warming Potentials
(GWPs) has been extensively used in policy consideration
as a relative index for comparing the climate impact of an
emitted greenhouse gas (GHG), relative to carbon dioxide
with equal mass emissions. Ozone depletion due to emission
of chlorinated or brominated halocarbons leads to cooling
of the climate system in the opposite direction to the direct
warming contribution by halocarbons as GHGs. This
cooling is a key indirect effect of the halocarbons on climatic
radiative forcing, which is accounted for by indirect GWPs.
With respect to climate, it is critical to understand net influences
considering direct warming and indirect cooling effects
especially for Halons due to the greater ozone-depleting efficiency
of bromine over chlorine. Until now, the indirect
GWPs have been calculated using a parameterized approach
based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric
Chlorine (EESC) and the observed ozone depletion over the
last few decades. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs
through a more robust approach, we use atmospheric models
to explicitly calculate the indirect GWPs of Halon-1211
and Halon-1301 for a 100-year time horizon. State-of-theart
global chemistry-transport models (CTMs) were used as
the computational tools to derive more realistic ozone depletion
changes caused by an added pulse emission of the
two major Halons at the surface. The radiative forcings on
climate from the ozone changes have been calculated for indirect
GWPs using an atmospheric radiative transfer model
(RTM). The simulated temporal variations of global average
total column Halons after a pulse perturbation follow an exponential
decay with an e-folding time which is consistent
with the expected chemical lifetimes of the Halons. Our cal-
Correspondence to: D. J. Wuebbles
(wuebbles@atmos.uiuc.edu)
culated indirect GWPs for the two Halons are much smaller
than those from past studies but are within a single standard
deviation of WMO (2007) values and the direct GWP values
derived agree with the published values. Our model-based
assessment of the Halon indirect GWPs thus confirms the
significant importance of indirect effects on climate.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/8719/2009/acp-9-8719-2009.pdf}, author = {Daeok, Youn and Patten, Kenneth O and Lin, Jin-Tai and Wuebbles, Donald J.} } @article {47986, title = {Global potential for wind generated electricity}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {106}, year = {2009}, pages = {10933-10938s}, abstract = {

The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20\% of their rated capacity could supply \>40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, \>5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths \<200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.

Wind power accounted for 42\% of all new electrical capacity added to the United States electrical system in 2008 although wind continues to account for a relatively small fraction of the total electricity-generating capacity [25.4 gigawatts (GW) of a total of 1,075 GW] (ref. 1; www.awea.org/pubs/documents/Outlook_2009.pdf). The Global Wind Energy Council projected the possibility of a 17-fold increase in wind-powered generation of electricity globally by 2030 (ref. 2; www.gwec.net/fileadmin/documents/Publications/GWEO_2008_final.pdf). Short et al. (3), using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory{\textquoteright}s WinDs model, concluded that wind could account for as much as 25\% of U.S. electricity by 2050 (corresponding to an installed wind capacity of ≈300 GW).

Archer and Jacobson (4) estimated that 20\% of the global total wind power potential could account for as much as 123 petawatt-hours (PWh) of electricity annually [corresponding to annually averaged power production of 14 terawatts (TW)] equal to 7 times the total current global consumption of electricity (comparable to present global use of energy in all forms). Their study was based on an analysis of data for the year 2000 from 7,753 surface meteorological stations complemented by data from 446 stations for which vertical soundings were available. They restricted their attention to power that could be generated by using a network of 1.5-megawatt (MW) turbines tapping wind resources from regions with annually averaged wind speeds in excess of 6.9 m/s (wind class 3 or better) at an elevation of 80 m. The meteorological stations used in their analysis were heavily concentrated in the United States, Europe, and Southeastern Asia. Results inferred for other regions of the world are subject as a consequence to considerable uncertainty.

The present study is based on a simulation of global wind fields from version 5 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5 DAS). Winds included in this compilation were obtained by retrospective analysis of global meteorological data using a state-of-the-art weather/climate model incorporating inputs from a wide variety of observational sources (5), including not only surface and sounding measurements as used by Archer and Jacobson (4) but also results from a diverse suite of measurements and observations from a combination of aircraft, balloons, ships, buoys, dropsondes and satellites, in short the gamut of observational data used to provide the world with the best possible meteorological forecasts enhanced by application of these data in a retrospective analysis. The GEOS-5 wind field is currently available for the period 2004 to the present (March 20, 2009) with plans to extend the analysis 30 years back in time. The GEOS-5 assimilation was adopted in the present analysis to take advantage of the relatively high spatial resolution available with this product as compared with the lower spatial resolutions available with alternative products such as ERA-40, NECP II, and JRA-25. It is used here in a detailed study of the potential for globally distributed wind-generated electricity in 2006.

We begin with a description of the methodology adopted for the present study. The land-based turbines envisaged here are assumed to have a rated capacity of 2.5 MW with somewhat larger turbines, 3.6 MW, deployed offshore, reflecting the greater cost of construction and the economic incentive to deploy larger turbines to capture the higher wind speeds available in these regions. In siting turbines over land, we specifically excluded densely populated regions and areas occupied by forests and environments distinguished by permanent snow and ice cover (notably Greenland and Antarctica). Turbines located offshore were restricted to water depths \<200 m and to distances within 92.6 km (50 nautical miles) of shore.

These constraints are then discussed, and results from the global analysis are presented followed by a more detailed discussion of results for the United States.

}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/106/27/10933}, author = {Lu, Xi and McElroy, Michael B. and Kiviluoma, Juha} } @article {47951, title = {Industrial and aggregate measures of productivity growth in China, 1982-2000}, journal = {Review of Income Wealth }, volume = {55}, year = {2009}, pages = {485-513}, abstract = {We estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input{\textendash}output tables covering 1982{\textendash}2000. Capital input is measured using detailed investment data by asset and labor input uses demographic information from household surveys. We find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level. We then show how these industry growth accounts may be consistently aggregated to deliver a decomposition of aggregate GDP growth. For the 1982{\textendash}2000 period aggregate TFP growth was 2.5 percent per year; decelerating from a rapid rate in the early 1980s to negative growth during 1994{\textendash}2000. The main source of growth during the 1982{\textendash}2000 period was capital accumulation, with a small negative contribution from the reallocation of factors across industries.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2009.00328.x/full}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S and Jorgenson, Dale W and Ren, Rouen and Sun, Linlin and Yue, Ximing} } @article {47956, title = {The local and global benefits of green tax policies in China}, journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy}, volume = {3}, year = {2009}, pages = {231-250}, abstract = {This article describes a multidisciplinary study of market-based policies for controlling air pollution in China. While previous studies have examined the costs and benefits of pollution control separately, this approach determines them together using an economy{\textendash}environment model for China. We employ air dispersion simulations and population maps to calculate health damages due to air pollution. This provides estimates of incremental damages for industry output and fuel use. Based on these marginal damages, we simulate the effect of {\textquotedblleft}green taxes{\textquotedblright} on the economy and show that the environmental benefits exceed the aggregate costs, ignoring adjustment costs for individual sectors.}, url = {http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/content/3/2/189.abstract}, author = {Cao, Jing and Ho, Mun S and Jorgenson, Dale W} } @article {48001, title = {Ozone air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics: Effectiveness of emission restrictions}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {9}, year = {2009}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {5237-5251}, abstract = {A series of aggressive measures was launched by the Chinese government to reduce pollutant emissions from Beijing and surrounding areas during the Olympic Games. Observations at Miyun, a rural site 100 km downwind of the Beijing urban center, show significant decreases in concen-trations of O3, CO, NOy, and SO2 during August 2008, rel-ative to August 2006{\textendash}2007. The mean daytime mixing ratio of O3 was lower by about 15 ppbv, reduced to 50 ppbv, in August 2008. The relative reductions in daytime SO2, CO, and NOy were 61\%, 25\%, and 21\%, respectively. Changes in SO2 and in species correlations from 2007 to 2008 indicate that emissions of SO2, CO, and NOx were reduced at least by 60\%, 32\%, and 36\%, respectively, during the Olympics. Analysis of meteorological conditions and interpretation of observations using a chemical transport model suggest that although the day-to-day variability in ozone is driven mostly by meteorology, the reduction in emissions of ozone pre-cursors associated with the Olympic Games had a signifi-cant contribution to the observed decrease in O3 during Au-gust 2008, accounting for 80\% of the O3 reduction for the month as a whole and 45\% during the Olympics Period (8{\textendash}24 August). The model predicts that emission restrictions such as those implemented during the Olympics can affect O3 far beyond the Beijing urban area, resulting in reductions in boundary layer O3 of 2{\textendash}10 ppbv over a large region of the North China Plain and Northeastern China.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/5237/2009/acp-9-5237-2009.pdf}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and Hao, Jiming and McElroy, Michael B. and J. William Munger and Ma, Hong and Chen, Dan and Nielsen, Chris P} } @article {47991, title = {Potential for wind generated electricity in China}, journal = {Science}, volume = {325}, year = {2009}, note = {

Final Manuscript in\ DASH
This paper was the cover article of this issue of Science; click here (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/325/5946.cover-expansion) to see the cover image of wind turbines near the Great Wall of China.

}, pages = {1378-1380}, abstract = {Wind offers an important alternative to coal as a source of energy for generation of electricity in China with the potential for substantial savings in carbon dioxide emissions. Wind fields derived from assimilated meteorological data are used to assess the potential for wind-generated electricity in China subject to the existing government-approved bidding process for new wind farms. Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kilowatt-hour for delivery of electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, it is concluded that wind could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption. Electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23\% of electricity generated from coal.}, url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/325/5946/1378.short}, author = {McElroy, Michael B. and Lu, Xi and Nielsen, Chris P and Wang, Yuxuan} } @article {47961, title = {Regional CO pollution in China simulated by the high-resolution nested-grid GEOS-Chem model}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {9}, year = {2009}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {3825-3839}, abstract = {An updated version of the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model is developed allowing for higher horizontal (0.5{\texttimes}0.667) resolution as compared to global models. CO transport over a heavily polluted region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster in China, and the pattern of outflow from East China in summertime are investigated. Compari-son of the nested-grid with global models indicates that the fine-resolution nested-grid model is capable of resolving in-dividual cities with high associated emission intensities. The nested-grid model indicates the presence of a high CO col-umn density over the Sichuan Basin in summer, attributable to the low-level stationary vortex associated with the Basin{\textquoteright}s topographical features. The nested-grid model provides good agreement also with measurements from a suburban monitor-ing site in Beijing during summer 2005. Tagged CO simula-tion results suggest that regional emissions make significant contributions to elevated CO levels over Beijing on polluted days and that the southeastward moving cyclones bringing northwest winds to Beijing are the key meteorological mech-anisms responsible for dispersion of pollution over Beijing in summer. Overall CO fluxes to the NW Pacific from Asia are found to decrease by a factor of 3{\textendash}4 from spring to sum-mer. Much of the seasonal change is driven by decreas-ing fluxes from India and Southeast Asia in summer, while fluxes from East China are only 30\% lower in summer than in spring. Compared to spring, summertime outflow from Chi-nese source regions is strongest at higher latitudes (north of 35 N). The deeper convection in summer transporting CO to higher altitudes where export is more efficient is largely responsible for enhanced export in summer.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/3825/2009/acp-9-3825-2009.pdf}, author = {Chen, Dan and Wang, Yuxuan and McElroy, Michael B. and He, Kebin and Yantosca, Robert M and Le Sager, Phillipe} } @article {48021, title = {Soil acidification in China: Is controlling SO2 emissions enough?}, journal = {Environmental Science and Technology}, volume = {43}, year = {2009}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {8021-8026}, abstract = {Facing challenges of increased energy consumption and related regional air pollution, China has been aggressively implementing flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and phasing out small inefficient units in the power sector in order to achieve the national goal of 10\% reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from 2005 to 2010. In this paper, the effect of these measures on soil acidification is explored. An integrated methodology is used, combining emission inventory data, emission forecasts, air quality modeling, and ecological sensitivities indicated by critical load. National emissions of SO2, oxides of nitrogen (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and ammonia (NH3) in 2005 were estimated to be 30.7, 19.6, 31.3, and 16.6 Mt, respectively. Implementation of existing policy will lead to reductions in SO2 and PM emissions, while those of NOX and NH3 will continue to rise, even under tentatively proposed control measures. In 2005, the critical load for soil acidification caused by sulfur (S) deposition was exceeded in 28\% of the country{\textquoteright}s territory, mainly in eastern and south-central China. The area in exceedance will decrease to 26\% and 20\% in 2010 and 2020, respectively, given implementation of current plans for emission reductions. However, the exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen (N, combining effects of eutrophication and acidification) will double from 2005 to 2020 due to increased NOX and NH3 emissions. Combining the acidification effects of S and N, the benefits of SO2 reductions during 2005-2010 will almost be negated by increased N emissions. Therefore abatement of N emissions (NOX and NH3) and deposition will be a major challenge to China, requiring policy development and technology investments. To mitigate acidification in the future, China needs a multipollutant control strategy that integrates measures to reduce S, N, and PM.}, url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es901430n}, author = {Zhao, Yu and Duan, Lei and Xing, Jia and Larssen, Thorjorn and Nielsen, Chris P and Hao, Jiming} } @article {47996, title = {The structure of Chinese urban land prices: Estimates from benchmark land price data}, journal = {Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics}, volume = {39}, year = {2009}, pages = {24-38}, abstract = {Taking the recent benchmark land prices published by the Chinese city governments, the paper estimates commercial and residential land price curves of Chinese cities using cross-sectional data, controlling for urban population size and income level. The urban land leasing price{\textendash}distance relationship is estimated based on the argument that monocentric urban structure is representative for Chinese cities. Both population size and income level are found to positively affect urban land price and price{\textendash}distance gradients. Commercial land prices are higher than residential land prices except in suburbs or outer central urban areas, where the land prices of different uses converge. In most situations, commercial use price gradients are larger than those of residential use.}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11146-007-9100-4}, author = {Wang, Rui} } @article {48036, title = {Global model simulation of summertime U.S. ozone diurnal cycle and its sensitivity to PBL mixing, spatial resolution, and emissions}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {41}, year = {2008}, note = {

This paper identifies improvements in representation of the boundary layer applicable to the Project{\textquoteright}s atmospheric model of China.

}, pages = {8470-8483}, abstract = {Simulation of summertime U.S. surface ozone diurnal cycle is influenced by the model representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing, spatial resolution, and precursor emissions. These factors are investigated here for five major regions (Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, California, and Southwest) by using the Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers version 2.4 (MOZART-2.4), with important modifications, to conduct sensitivity experiments for summer 1999 with three PBL mixing schemes, two horizontal resolutions and two emissions datasets. Among these factors, the PBL mixing is dominant. The default non-local scheme well reproduces the observed ozone diurnal variation, where the timing for the afternoon maximum and the morning minimum is within 1\ h of the observed; biases for the minimum are less than 5\ ppb except over the Southeast; and the ozone maximum{\textendash}minimum contrast (OMMC) is within 10\ ppb of observations except for the overprediction by 18.9\ ppb over the Northeast. In contrast, the local scheme significantly overestimates the OMMC by 10{\textendash}34\ ppb over all regions as ozone and precursors are trapped too close to the ground. On the other hand, the full-mixing assumption underestimates the OMMC by 0{\textendash}25\ ppb, except over the Northeast, as the nighttime ozone decline is greatly underpredicted. As compared to PBL mixing, the effects of horizontal resolutions and precursor emissions being used are smaller but non-negligible. Overall, with the non-local mixing scheme, relatively high horizontal resolution (\~{}1.1{\textdegree}) and updated emissions data, the modified MOZART is capable of simulating the main features of the observed ozone diurnal cycle.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231008007188}, author = {Lin, Jin-Tai and Youn, Daeok and Liang, Xin-Zhong and Wuebbles, Donald J.} } @article {48071, title = {Variations of O3 and CO in summertime at a rural site near Beijing}, journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {6355-6363}, abstract = {Large intra-season differences in mixing ratios of CO and O3 were detected at Miyun, a rural site north of Beijing, in summer 2006. Despite an increase in mean daytime mixing ratio of CO from 500 ppbv in June to 700 ppbv in July, mean daytime O3 dropped from 67 ppbv in June to 50 ppbv in July and August. The observed changes in CO and O3 are attributed to the influence of the summer monsoonal circulation that develops over the North China Plain in July. Photochemical production of O3 is reduced as a consequence of increased cloudiness during July and August, as indicated by the strong negative correlation observed between O3 and satellite observations of cloud optical depth, with cloudiness having little effect on CO. The analysis suggests a strategy
for emission controls that could be implemented in an economically
efficient manner to minimize the frequency of high levels of O3 during summer in Beijing.}, url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/6355/2008/acp-8-6355-2008.pdf}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and McElroy, Michael B. and J. William Munger and Hao, Jiming and Ma, Hong and Nielsen, Chris P and Chen, Yaosheng} } @article {1559576, title = {How do market reforms affect China{\textquoteright}s responsiveness to environmental policy?}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {82}, year = {2007}, pages = {200-233}, abstract = {A large percentage of total investment in China is allocated by the central government at below-market\ interest rates\ in pursuit of non-economic objectives. This has resulted in low rates of return and a high number of non-performing loans, threatening the future health of the Chinese economy. As a result, reform of capital markets is a high priority of the Chinese government. At the same time, the country is implementing various\ environmental policies\ to deal with serious pollution issues. In this paper we ask how reforms of the capital market will affect the functioning of a\ carbon tax. This allows us to assess how China{\textquoteright}s willingness to join global efforts to reduce\ carbon emissions\ is influenced by China{\textquoteright}s current efforts to reduce investment subsidies. We compare the costs of a carbon\ tax\ in a reformed economy with the costs of a carbon tax in the current subsidized economy. We find that in the subsidized economy the tax-interaction effect dampens the effect of a carbon tax resulting in smaller reductions in emissions than what would result in a reformed economy. Importantly, we also find that the effect on\ economic welfare\ from a carbon tax is lower in the subsidized economy; in fact, for lower levels of reductions, the carbon tax is actually welfare improving. These results have important implications for an economy undergoing economic transition. The carbon tax rate required to achieve a certain level of emission reductions will be higher in an economy with capital subsidies. However, the welfare implications of the tax indicate that the current system with capital subsidies is highly distorting implying that there is a high\ efficiency cost\ for the non-economic objectives the government is pursuing by maintaining this system of subsidies.}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S030438780500091X}, author = {Karen Fisher-Vanden and Mun S. Ho} } @article {48366, title = {Household income, travel behavior, location and accessibility: Sketches from two different developing country contexts}, journal = {Transportation Research Record}, volume = {238}, year = {2007}, pages = {128-138}, url = {http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2038-17}, author = {Zegras, P Christopher and Srinivasan, Sumeeta} } @article {48356, title = {The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2 emission: An empirical analysis of China{\textquoteright}s residents}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {35}, year = {2007}, pages = {247-257}, abstract = {Based on the application of a Consumer Lifestyle Approach (CLA), this paper quantifies the direct and indirect impact of lifestyle of urban and rural residents on China{\textquoteright}s energy use and the related CO2 emissions during the period 1999{\textendash}2002. The results show that approximately 26 per cent of total energy consumption and 30 per cent of CO2 emission every year are a consequence of residents{\textquoteright} lifestyles, and the economic activities to support these demands. For urban residents the indirect impact on energy consumption is 2.44 times greater than the direct impact. Residence; home energy use; food; and education, cultural and recreation services are the most energy-intensive and carbon-emission-intensive activities. For rural residents, the direct impact on energy consumption is 1.86 times that of the indirect, and home energy use; food; education, and cultural recreation services; and personal travel are the most energy-intensive and carbon-emission-intensive activities. This paper provides quantitative evidence for energy conservation and environmental protection focused policies. China{\textquoteright}s security for energy supply is singled out as a serious issue for government policy-makers, and we suggest that government should harmonize the relationships between stakeholders to determine rational strategies.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421505003022}, author = {Wei, Yi-Ming and Liu, Lan-Cui and Fan, Ying and Wu, Gang} } @article {48106, title = {Implementation of voluntary agreements for energy efficiency in China}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {35}, year = {2007}, pages = {5541-5548}, abstract = {Low-energy efficiency and environmental pollution have long been taken as key problems of Chinese industry, although a number of command-and-control and economic instruments have been adopted in the last few decades. In this paper, policy and legislation development for voluntary agreements were summarized. The voluntary agreements pilot project in two iron and steel companies in Shandong Province as well as other cases were analyzed. In order to identify the existing problems in Chinese cases, comparison was made between China and industrialized countries in the practices of energy efficiency voluntary agreements. Based on the analysis, detained recommendations, including the use of supporting policies for voluntary agreements, were raised. It is expected that voluntary agreements could play a more important role in energy efficiency improvement of Chinese industry.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421507002480}, author = {Hu, Yuan} } @article {360061, title = {Measuring green productivity growth for China{\textquoteright}s manufacturing sectors: 1991-2000}, journal = {Asian Economic Journal}, volume = {21}, year = {2007}, pages = {425-251}, abstract = {Over the past two decades, China has sustained rapid economic growth of 8{\textendash}10\ percent, part of which is attributed to the positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, this extraordinary economic performance has been accompanied by severe environmental pollution and associated health damage. The conventional TFP method is biased in interpreting the progress of technology change because it does not consider non-marketable residues, such as environmental pollution, and, hence, efficiency improvements in terms of pollution abatement technology and environmentally friendly management are ignored. This bias might direct our attention to less efficient use of environmental friendly abatement technologies or send wrong signals to policy-makers. To address this issue, the present paper applies a modified welfare-based green TFP approach, treating environmental damage as non-desirable (negative) residual output. Therefore, environmental efficiency is taken into account to accurately interpret technological progress from a social welfare point of view. Based on a national time-series input{\textendash}output table, historical capital and labor input data for China and sectoral level air pollution emission data from 1991 to 2000, the empirical results suggest that with increasingly stringent environmental regulations, many pollution intensive sectors, such as electricity, primary metal and chemical industries, improved their environmental efficiency in the late 1990s. However, because of the weak environmental regulations in construction and transportation, and in sectors primarily composed of small private or township and village industrial enterprises, firms within these industries contributed to increasing environmental degradation.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2007.00265.x/abstract}, author = {Cao, Jing} } @article {48316, title = {Seasonal variability of NOx emissions over east China constrained by satellite observations: Implications for combustion and microbial sources}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {112}, year = {2007}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, abstract = {Observations of tropospheric column densities of NO2 obtained from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for a 3-year period (1997, 1998, and 2000) are used to derive average seasonal variations in surface emissions of NOx from east China (100{\textendash}123{\textdegree}E, 20{\textendash}42{\textdegree}N). The retrieval allows for zonal variations in the contribution of the stratosphere to the NO2 column and removes a bias of {\textpm}10\% on the seasonality of retrieved columns introduced by cloud screening. The top-down inventory is constructed using an inversion approach with a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and combined subsequently with the a priori inventory to develop an a posteriori inventory. The contribution of background NO2 arising from nonsurface sources (lightning) and long-range transport of emissions originating outside of east China is accounted for in the inversion. The a posteriori estimate of overall emissions for east China, 4.66 Tg N/yr ({\textpm}30\% uncertainty), is 33\% higher than the a priori value and is shown to improve agreement with surface measurements of nitrate wet deposition and concentrations of NOy observed in China. On the basis of multiple constraints on the spatial and seasonal variations of combustion and microbial processes, the a posteriori inventory is partitioned among emissions from biomass burning, fuel combustion, and microbial activity (or soil emissions). Emission of NOx from biomass burning in east China is estimated as 0.08 TgN/yr {\textpm} 50\% in the a posteriori inventory, increased by about a factor of 2 from the a priori estimate. The resulting a posteriori inventory for fuel combustion (3.72 TgN/yr {\textpm} 32\%) is about 15\% higher than the a priori and exhibits a distinct maximum in winter, in contrast to the weak seasonality indicated in the a priori inventory. The a posteriori value for the microbial source of NOx (0.85 TgN/yr {\textpm} 40\%) is about a factor of 3 higher than the a priori value, amounting to 23\% of combustion sources for east China and significantly higher than a priori value of 7\%. The microbial source is unimportant in winter. It peaks in summer, accounting for as much as 43\% of the combustion source for that season, and is significant also in spring and fall. This seasonality is attributed to the timing of fertilizer application and to the influence of seasonally variable environmental factors including temperature and precipitation.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD007538/abstract}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and McElroy, Michael B. and Martin, Randall V and Streets, David G and Zhang, Qiang and Fu, Tung-May} } @article {48346, title = {Traffic restrictions associated with the Sino-African Summit: Reductions of NOX detected from space}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {34}, year = {2007}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, abstract = {Aggressive measures were instituted by the Beijing municipal authorities to restrict vehicular traffic in the Chinese capital during the recent Sino-African Summit. We show that reductions in associated emissions of NOx were detected by the Dutch-Finnish Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite. Interpretation of these data using a 3-dimensional chemical transport model indicates that emissions of NOx were reduced by 40\% over the period of November 4 to 6, 2006, for which the restrictions were in place.}, url = {https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/28344268}, author = {Wang, Yuxuan and McElroy, Michael B. and Boersma, K. Folkert and Eskes, Henk J and Veefkind, J Pepijn} } @article {90551, title = {The economic value of air-pollution-related health risks in China: A contingent valuation study}, journal = {Environmental Resource Economics}, volume = {33}, year = {2006}, pages = {399-423}, abstract = {The economic value of preventing adverse health effects related to air pollution is estimated using contingent valuation in three diverse locations in China. Values are estimated for three health endpoints: cold, chronic bronchitis, and fatality. Alternative statistical models are tested to study their impact on estimated willingness to pay (WTP) and on the relationship between WTP and respondent characteristics. Using the official exchange rate, the sample-average median WTP to prevent an episode of cold ranges between US$3 and US$6, the WTP to prevent a statistical case of chronic bronchitis ranges between US$500 and US$1,000, and the value per statistical life ranges between US$4,000 and US$17,000. Estimated mean values are between two and thirteen times larger. Our estimates are between about 10 and 1,000 times smaller than estimates for the US and Taiwan using official exchange rates. Indoor air quality, measured for a subset of respondents, shows no consistent relationship with WTP.}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs10640-005-3606-0}, author = {Hammitt, James K and Zhou, Ying} } @article {90556, title = {Identifying key factors and strategies for reducing industrial CO2 emissions from a non-Kyoto protocol member{\textquoteright}s (Taiwan) perspective}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {34}, year = {2006}, pages = {1499-1507}, abstract = {In this study we use Divisia index approach to identify key factors affecting CO2 emission changes of industrial sectors in Taiwan. The changes of CO2 emission are decomposed into emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial structure and economic growth. Furthermore, comparisons with USA, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and South Korea are made to have a better understanding of emission tendency in these countries and to help formulate our CO2 reduction strategies for responding to the international calls for CO2 cuts. The results show that economic growth and high energy intensity were two key factors for the rapid increase of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan, while adjustment of industrial structure was the main component for the decrease. Although economic development is important, Taiwan must keep pace with the international trends for CO2 reduction. Among the most important strategies are continuous efforts to improve energy intensity, fuel mix toward lower carbon, setting targets for industrial CO2 cuts, and advancing green technology through technology transfer. Also, the clean development mechanism (CDM) is expected to play an important role in the future.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421505002119}, author = {Lin, Sue J. and Lu, I.J. and Lewis, Charles} } @article {90576, title = {The influence of geographic location on population exposure to emissions from power plants throughout China}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {32}, year = {2006}, pages = {365-373}, abstract = {This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 5), followed by sulfur dioxide (5\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6). For all pollutants, the intake fractions span approximately an order of magnitude across sites. In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants (R2 between 0.86 and 0.95 across pollutants), with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling. These findings demonstrate that intake fractions for power plants in China can be estimated with reasonable precision and summarized using simple regression models. The results should be useful for informing future decisions about power-plant locations and controls.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041200500200X}, author = {Zhou, Ying and Levy, Jonathan I and Evans, John S and Hammitt, James K} } @article {90566, title = {Intake fractions of industrial air pollutants in China: Estimation and application}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {354}, year = {2006}, pages = {127-141}, abstract = {Intake fractions, an emissions-intake relationship for primary pollutants, are defined and are estimated in order to make simple estimates of health damages from air pollution. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) and total suspended particles (TSP) intake fractions for five cities of China are estimated for the four main polluting industries{\textemdash}electric power generation, mineral (mostly cement) products industry, chemical process industry and metallurgical industry (mainly iron and steel smelting). The Industrial Source Complex Long Term (ISTLT3) model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of incremental ambient concentrations due to emissions from a large sample of site-specific sources. Detailed population distribution information is used for each city. The average intake fractions within 50 km of these sources are 4.4\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6 for TSP, and 4.2\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6 for SO2, with standard deviations of 8.15\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6 and 9.16\ {\texttimes}\ 10-\ 6, respectively. They vary over a wide range, from 10-\ 7 to 10-\ 5. Although the electric power generation has been the focus of much of the air pollution research in China, our results show that it has the lowest average intake fraction for a local range among the four industries, which highlights the importance of pollutant emissions from other industrial sources. Sensitivity analyses show how the intake fractions are affected by the source and pollutant characteristics, the most important parameter being the size of the domain. However, the intake fraction estimates are robust enough to be useful for evaluating the local impacts on human health of primary SO2 and TSP emissions. An application of intake fractions is given to demonstrate how this approach provides a rapid population risk estimate if the dose-response function is linear without threshold, and hence can help in prioritizing pollution control efforts.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969705000768}, author = {Wang, Shuxiao and Hao, Jiming and Ho, Mun S and Li, Ji and Lu, Yongqi} } @article {90561, title = {Willingness to pay for reducing fatal risk by improving air quality: A contingent valuation study in Chongqing, China}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {367}, year = {2006}, pages = {50-57}, abstract = {

In China, 76\% of all energy comes from coal consumption, which is the major cause of air pollution. One of the major barriers to developing sound policies for controlling air pollution is the lack of information related to the value of the health consequences of air pollution. We conducted a willingness-to-pay (WTP) study using contingent valuation (CV) methods in Chongqing, China to estimate the economic value of saving one statistical life through improving air quality.

A sample of 500\ residents was chosen based on multistage sampling methods. A face-to-face household interview was conducted using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenarios followed by bidding game questions designed to elicit the respondents{\textquoteright} WTP for air pollution reduction. The Two-Part Model was used for estimations.

The results show that 96\% of respondents were able to express their WTP. Their mean annual income is $490. Their WTP to save one statistical life is $34,458. Marginal increases for saving one statistical life is $240 with 1\ year age increase, $14,434 with 100\ yuan monthly income increase, and $1590 with 1\ year education increase. Unlike developed country, clean air may still be considered as a {\textquotedblleft}luxury{\textquotedblright} good in China based on the estimation of income elasticity.

}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969706001938}, author = {Wang, Hong and Mullahy, John} } @article {90691, title = {Human and animal wastes: Implications for atmospheric N2O and NOX}, journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles}, volume = {19}, year = {2005}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, abstract = {More than 220 Tg N are processed annually through the global agriculture/animal/human food chain. It is suggested that aerobic denitrification, reduction of nitrite formed in the first stage of nitrification, is an important source not only of global N2O but also of NOx. A simple top-down method indicates a globally averaged yield of 2\% for N2O emitted as a consequence of human disturbances to the global nitrogen cycle. This yield can account not only for the contemporary budget of atmospheric N2O but also for trends observed over the past 1000 years. The associated microbial source of NOx is estimated assuming a NOx/N2O ratio of 3, consistent with results from a variety of laboratory and field studies. This source is significant, particularly for large developing countries such as China and India for which its contribution is comparable to that from fossil fuel.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GB002429/abstract}, author = {McElroy, Michael B. and Wang, Yuxuan} } @article {90741, title = {Linking land use and transportation in a rapidly urbanizing context: A study in Delhi, India}, journal = {Transportation}, volume = {32}, year = {2005}, pages = {87-104}, abstract = {Cities in developing countries like India are facing some of the same concerns that North American cities are: congestion and urban growth. However, there is a sense of urgency in cities like Delhi, India in that this growth is far more rapid as both urbanization and motorization are ongoing processes that have not yet peaked. In this paper, we examine land use change and its relationship with transportation infrastructure and other planning related variables in a spatial context. We estimate land use change models at two different scales from separate data. Cellular automation and Markov models were used to understand change at the regional scale and discrete choice models to predict change at the local level. The results suggest that land use in the Delhi metropolitan area is rapidly intensifying while losing variety. These changes are affected by industrial, commercial and infrastructure location and planners and policy-makers need to better understand the implications of location decisions. We also examine these results in the context of a policy framework for data-based planning that links land use and transportation models for Delhi.}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs11116-004-2216-y}, author = {Srinivasan, Sumeeta} } @article {90746, title = {Travel behavior of low-income residents: Studying two contrasting locations in the city of Chennai, India}, journal = {Journal of Transport Geography}, volume = {13}, year = {2005}, pages = {265-274}, abstract = {Data on travel behavior in developing countries like India is minimal. This is especially true for the relatively poor residents of urban India. They are dependent on fewer options for transportation and have little choice in terms of employment location given their dependence on walking or bicycles. This is significant in cities like Chennai because employment is highly concentrated in the center of the city. In this study, the results of a survey of 70 households in Chennai were analyzed to estimate statistical models of travel behavior with respect to mode choice and trip frequency. The households were located in two different parts of the city: one group of households lived close to the city center (in a settlement called Srinivasapuram) and the other at the periphery (in a location called Kannagi Nagar). We analyze the differences in travel behavior due to differences in accessibility to employment and services between the two settlement locations. The results indicate that differences in accessibility appear to strongly affect travel behavior. Residents in the centrally located settlement were more likely to use non-motorized modes for travel (walk or bicycle) than the peripherally located residents. It is vital therefore that, policy makers in India consider location of employment in the planning of new housing for low-income households.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692304000535}, author = {Srinivasan, Sumeeta and Rogers, Peter P.} } @article {90786, title = {Asian emissions of CO and NOX: Constraints from aircraft and Chinese station data}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {109}, year = {2004}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2004JD005250/asset/jgrd11743.pdf;jsessionid=60F491CABB481C3A0DDC3D23F2B6085D.f01t01?v=1\&t=j5cv2ef9\&s=d587f395b4e20774d149e8101a10795ce087fd22}, author = {Wang, Y.X. and McElroy, M.B. and Wang, T. and Palmer, P.I.} } @article {90781, title = {A nested grid formulation for chemical transport over Asia: Applications to CO}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {109}, year = {2004}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, abstract = {A global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) was modified to permit treatment of a limited spatial regime with resolution higher than that adopted for the global background. Identified as a one-way nested grid formulation, the model was applied to a simulation of CO over Asia during spring 2001. Differences between results obtained using the nested grid (resolution 1{\textdegree} {\texttimes} 1{\textdegree}), the coarse global model (resolution 4{\textdegree} {\texttimes} 5{\textdegree}), and the intermediate global model (resolution 2{\textdegree} {\texttimes} 2.5{\textdegree}) are discussed. The higher-resolution model allows for more efficient, advection-related, ventilation of the lower atmosphere, reflecting the significance of localized regions of intense upward motion not resolved in a coarser-resolution simulation. Budget analysis suggests that upward transfer to higher altitudes through large-scale advection provides the major sink for CO below 4 km. Horizontal advection, mainly through the north boundary, contributes a net source of CO to the window domain despite the polluted nature of the study region. The nested-grid model is shown to provide good agreement with measurements made during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign in spring 2001, notably better than the low-resolution model in simulating frontal lifting process and differences across the boundary separating the regions of cyclonic and anticyclonic flow. The high-resolution window approach also allows us to differentiate transport mechanisms for individual subregions of China on a much finer scale than was possible previously. Suggestions are made as to how to allow for subgrid vertical advective motions in the low-resolution model through a carefully designed and broadly tested eddy diffusion treatment.}, url = {https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/14121840}, author = {Wang, Y.X. and McElroy, M.B. and Jacob, D.J. and Yantosca, R.M.} } @article {90606, title = {The effects of market reforms on structural change: Implications for energy use and carbon emissions in China}, journal = {Energy Journal}, volume = {24}, year = {2003}, pages = {27-62}, abstract = {This paper assesses the role played by market reforms in shaping the future level and composition of production, energy use, and carbon emissions in China. Arguments have been made that reducing distortions in China{\textquoteright}s economy through market reforms will lead to energy efficiency improvements and lower carbon emissions in China. However, these arguments are based on partial and not general equilibrium analyses, and therefore overlook the effects of market reforms on economic growth and structural change. The results suggest that further implementation of market reforms could result in a structural shift to less carbon-intensive production and thus lower carbon emissions per unit GDP. However, this fall in carbon intensity is not enough to compensate for the greater use of energy as a result of market reforms due to higher economic growth and changes in the composition of production. Therefore, China{\textquoteright}s transition to a market economy could result in significantly higher economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions. These results could have implications for other countries considering or undergoing market transition.}, url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/41322999?seq=1$\#$page_scan_tab_contents}, author = {Karen Fisher-Vanden} } @article {90811, title = {Estimating population exposure to power plant emissions using CALPUFF: A case study in Beijing, China}, journal = {Atmospheric Environment}, volume = {37}, year = {2003}, pages = {815-826}, abstract = {Epidemiological studies have shown a significant association between ambient particulate matter (PM) exposures and increased mortality and morbidity risk. Power plants are significant emitters of precursor gases of fine particulate matter. To evaluate the public health risk posed by power plants, it is necessary to evaluate population exposure to different pollutants. The concept of intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant emitted that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population) has been proposed to provide a simple summary measure of the relationship between emissions and exposure. Currently available intake fraction estimates from developing countries used models that look only at the near field impacts, which may not capture the full impact of a pollution source. This case study demonstrated how the intake fraction of power plant emissions in China can be calculated using a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model{\textemdash}CALPUFF. We found that the intake fraction of primary fine particles is roughly on the order of 10-5, while the intake fractions of sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrate are on the order of 10-6. These estimates are an order of magnitude higher than the US estimates. We also tested how sensitive the results were to key assumptions within the model. The size distribution of primary particles has a large impact on the intake fraction for primary particles while the background ammonia concentration is an important factor influencing the intake fraction of nitrate. The background ozone concentration has a moderate impact on the intake fraction of sulfate and nitrate. Our analysis shows that this approach is applicable to a developing country and it provides reasonable population exposure estimates.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231002009378}, author = {Zhou, Y. and Levy, Jonathan I and Hammitt, James K and Evans, John S} } @article {90751, title = {Estimating the distribution of terrestrial CO2 sources and sinks from atmospheric measurements: Sensitivity to configuration of the observation network}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {108}, year = {2003}, abstract = {We explore the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 flux estimates from a specific inversion methodology, based on the configuration of Fan et al. [1998], to different configurations of the global observation network. Using diagnostics derived from the inversion equations, we focus on quantifying the relative influence of individual stations on the flux estimates. We also examine the impact of different assumptions for the data uncertainty values by contrasting weighted and unweighted inversions and presenting related sensitivity analyses. For this particular methodology, unweighted estimates of continental scale fluxes prove very sensitive to network configuration. The inclusion or omission of a few important stations in and around the northern continents can result in shifts in continental-scale flux estimates of up to 1.5 Gt C/year. The weighted estimates are less sensitive to network configuration. Diagnostics of relative station influence indicate that this results from the reduced roles of previously influential continental sites; i.e., those stations characterized by high levels of data uncertainty. In the weighted approach, stations on continental peripheries associated with lower levels of data uncertainty are the most important in determining terrestrial fluxes. Finally, using the diagnostics of relative station influence, we discuss potential sampling strategies for the determination of regional fluxes from surface measurements.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JD002207/abstract}, author = {Suntharalingam, P. and Spivakovsky, C. M. and Logan, J. A. and McElroy, M.B.} } @article {90611, title = {Management structure and technology diffusion in Chinese state-owned enterprises}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {31}, year = {2003}, pages = {247-257}, abstract = {This paper identifies factors that can explain the variation in the diffusion of continuous casting technology among Chinese steel firms during the period 1985{\textendash}1995. Potential factors affecting firm-level diffusion of continuous casting technology are tested econometrically using data from 75 Chinese steel firms. The results suggest that institutional factors, such as management structure, have had a significant influence on a firm{\textquoteright}s rate of diffusion. In particular, the results show that although centrally managed firms are typically the first to acquire a new technology, complete integration of the technology into the production process occurs more rapidly in firms that are locally managed. Furthermore, the results suggest that certain market factors are important in a locally managed firm{\textquoteright}s decision to convert, but seem to have played a lesser role in centrally managed firms. These results imply that although centrally managed firms have better access to new technologies due to their close ties to the central government, locally managed firms may possess a greater incentive to improve production efficiency through the incorporation of new technology.}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421502000332}, author = {Karen Fisher-Vanden} } @article {90761, title = {Particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and daily mortality in Chongqing, China}, journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives}, volume = {111}, year = {2003}, pages = {562-567}, abstract = {In 1995, daily mortality in a district of Chongqing, China, was analyzed from January through
December for associations with daily ambient sulfur dioxide and fine particles (airborne particles
with diameters <= 2.5 μm; PM2.5). The mean concentration of PM2.5 was 147 μg/m3 (maximum,
666 μg/m3), and that of SO2 was 213 μg/m3 (maximum, 571 μg/m3). On average, 9.6 persons
died each day. We used a generalized additive model using robust Poisson regression to estimate
the associations of mean daily SO2 and PM2.5 with daily mortality (on the same day and at lags up
to 5 days) adjusted for trend, season, temperature, humidity, and day of the week. The relative
risk of mortality associated with a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was highest on the second
lag day [1.04; 95\% confidence interval (CI), 1.00{\textendash}1.09] and the third lag day (1.04; 95\% CI,
0.99{\textendash}1.08). The associations between daily mortality and mean daily PM2.5 were negative and statistically
insignificant on all days. The relative risk of respiratory mortality on the second day after
a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was 1.11 (95\% CI, 1.02{\textendash}1.22), and that for cardiovascular
mortality was 1.10 (95\% CI, 1.02{\textendash}1.20). The relative risk of cardiovascular mortality on the
third day after a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was 1.20 (95\% CI, 1.11{\textendash}1.30). The relative
risks of mortality due to cancer and other causes were insignificant on both days. The estimated
effects of mean daily SO2 on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risk remained after controlling for PM2.5.}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1241445/pdf/ehp0111-000562.pdf}, author = {Venners, Scott A. and Wang, B.Y. and Peng, Z.G. and Xu, Y. and Wang, L.H. and Xu, X.P.} } @article {90591, title = {The human dimensions of environmental policy implementation: Air quality in rural China}, journal = {Journal of Contemporary China}, volume = {11}, year = {2002}, note = {Final Manuscript in DASH}, pages = {495-513}, abstract = {The People{\textquoteright}s Republic of China is experiencing severe air pollution with very serious public health and economic consequences. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has sought to utilize bureaucratic, political, legal and educational vehicles to address these problems. This paper examines the ways in which those policy measures have been communicated to, understood by, and acted upon by the citizenry, drawing in important part on household and epidemiological surveys conducted in Anhui. Our study suggests that the central government{\textquoteright}s message has yet to be absorbed to the degree intended and then considers both why this has been the case and how the effectiveness of policy mechanisms might be enhanced.}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10670560220152300$\#$.UmyG_SiLHao}, author = {Alford, William P. and Weller, Robert P. and Hall, Leslyn and Polenske, Karen R. and Shen, Yuanyuan and Zweig, David} } @article {90656, title = {A regression-based approach for estimating primary and secondary particulate matter intake fractions}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {22}, year = {2002}, pages = {893-901}, abstract = {One of the common challenges for life cycle impact assessment and risk assessment is the need to estimate the population exposures associated with emissions. The concept of intake fraction (a unitless term representing the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested) can be used when limited site data are available or the number of sources to model is large. Although studies have estimated intake fractions for some pollutant-source combinations, there is a need to quickly and accurately estimate intake fractions for sources and settings not previously evaluated. It would be expected that limited source or site information could be used to yield intake fraction estimates with reasonable accuracy. To test this theory, we developed regression models to predict intake fractions previously estimated for primary fine particles (PM2.5) and secondary sulfate and nitrate particles from power plants and mobile sources in the United States. Our regression models were able to predict pollutant-specific intake fractions with R2 between 0.53 and 0.86 and equations that reflected expected relationships (e.g., intake fraction increased with population density, stack height influenced the intake fraction of primary but not secondary particles). Further analysis would be needed to generalize beyond this case study and construct models applicable across source categories and settings, but our analysis demonstrates that inclusion of a limited number of parameters can significantly reduce the uncertainty in population-average exposure estimates.}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1539-6924.00259/abstract;jsessionid=6D1680D550A32C7A69B391660F95C343.f01t01}, author = {Levy, Jonathan I and Wolff, Scott K. and Evans, John S} } @article {90651, title = {Urban transportation planning for air quality management: Case study of Delhi, India, and role of social and economic costs in welfare maximization of mobility choice}, journal = {Transportation Research Record}, volume = {1817}, year = {2002}, pages = {42-49}, abstract = {Recent economic expansion and population growth in developing countries have had a big impact on the development of large cities like Delhi, India. Accompanied by Delhi{\textquoteright}s rapid spatial growth over the last 25 years, urban sprawl has contributed to increased travel. The vehicle fleet projected at current growth rates will result in more than 13 million vehicles in Delhi in 2020. Planning and managing such a rapidly growing transport sector will be a challenge. Choices made now will have effects lasting well into the middle of the century. With such rapid transport growth rates, automobile emissions have become the fastest increasing source of urban air pollution. In India, most urban areas, including Delhi, already have major air pollution problems that could be greatly exacerbated if growth of the transport sector is managed unwisely. The transport plans designed to meet such large increases in travel demand will have to emphasize the movement of people, not vehicles, for a sustainable transportation system. Therefore, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the optimal transportation mix to meet this projected passenger-km demand while satisfying environmental goals, reducing congestion levels, and improving system and fuel efficiencies by exploiting a variety of policy options at the minimum overall cost or maximum welfare from transport. The results suggest that buses will continue to satisfy most passenger transport in the coming decades, so planning done in accordance with improving bus operations is crucial.}, url = {http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=732040}, author = {Kokaz, Karolin and Rogers, Peter P.} } @article {360586, title = {Clean air, clean processes?: The struggle over air pollution law in the People{\textquoteright}s Republic of China}, journal = {Hastings Law Journal}, volume = {52}, year = {2001}, pages = {703-748}, url = {http://heinonline.org/HOL/Welcome?message=Please\%20log\%20in\&url=\%2FHOL\%2FPage\%3Fhandle\%3Dhein.journals\%2Fhastlj52\%26collection\%3Djournals\%26id\%3D731}, author = {Alford, William P. and Liebman, Benjamin L.} } @article {90756, title = {Indoor air pollution and respiratory health in urban and rural China}, journal = {International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health }, volume = {7}, year = {2001}, pages = {173-181}, abstract = {During the summer of 1999, information about respiratory health outcomes and relevant covariates was collected from 3,709 Chinese adults in Beijing, Anqing City, and rural communities in Anqing Prefecture. Indoor PM10 and SO2 were measured in a random sample of selected households. Using logistic regression and controlling for important covariates (excluding PM10 and SO2) and familial intraclass correlation, highly significant differences were found between study areas in the prevalences of chronic cough, chronic phlegm, wheeze, and shortness of breath, but not physician-diagnosed asthma. Generally, the lowest prevalence of respiratory symptoms was observed in Anqing City, a higher prevalence in rural Anqing, and the highest prevalence in Beijing. Median indoor concentrations of PM10 were similar in Anqing City (239 microg/m3) and rural Anqing (248 microg/m3), but much higher in Beijing (557 microg/m3). Median indoor concentrations of SO2 were similar in all three areas (Beijing: 14 microg/m3, Anqing City: 25 microg/m3, rural Anqing: 20 microg/m3).}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11513066}, author = {Venners, Scott A. and Wang, Binyan and Ni, Jiatong and Jin, Yongtang and Yang, Jianhua and Fang, Zhian and Xu, Xiping} } @article {90806, title = {Air pollution and daily mortality in Shenyang, China}, journal = {Archives of Environmental Health}, volume = {55}, year = {2000}, pages = {115-120}, abstract = {The authors analyzed daily mortality data in Shenyang, China, for calendar year 1992 to identify possible associations with ambient sulfur dioxide and total suspended particulates. Both total suspended particulate concentrations (mean = 430 μmlg/m3, maximum = 1,141 μmlg/m3) and sulfur dioxide concentrations (mean 197 = μmlg/m3, maximum = 659 μmlg/m3) far exceeded the World Health Organization{\textquoteright}s recommended criteria. An average of 45.5 persons died each day. The lagged moving averages of air-pollution levels, calculated as the mean of the nonmissing air-pollution levels of the concurrent and 3 preceding days, were used for all analyses. Locally weighted regression analysis, including temperature, humidity, day of week, and a time variable, showed a positive association between daily mortality and both total suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide. When the authors included total suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide separately in the model, both were highly significant predictors of daily mortality. The risk of all-cause mortality increased by an estimated 1.7\% and 2.4\% with a 100-μmlg/m3 concomitant increase in total suspended particulate and sulfur dioxide, respectively. When the authors analyzed mortality separately by cause of death, the association with total suspended particulates was significant for cardiovascular disease (2.1\%), but not statistically significant for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (2.6\%). In contrast, the association with sulfur dioxide was significant for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (7.4\%), but not for cardiovascular disease (1.8\%). The mortality from cancer was not associated significantly with total suspended particles or with sulfur dioxide. The correlation between sulfur dioxide and total suspended particulates was high (correlation coefficient = .66). When the authors included sulfur dioxide and total suspended particulates simultaneously in the model, the association between total suspended particulates and mortality from all causes and cardiovascular diseases remained significant. Sulfur dioxide was associated significantly with increased mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and other causes. The results of the current study reveal increased mortality associated with both total suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide.}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00039890009603397$\#$preview}, author = {Xu, Z.Y. and Yu, D.Q. and Jing, L.B. and Xu, X.P.} } @article {90736, title = {Potential for US-China carbon trading from the electric power sector}, journal = {Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy}, volume = {10}, year = {2000}, pages = {171-183}, abstract = {The results from a non-linear optimization model for China{\textquoteright}s electric power system are presented. The model determines the optimal capacity-expansion path of the power sector by calculating the least-cost investment strategy for the required additional capacity to meet the predicted electricity demand and environmental goals. It is suggested that it will be difficult and expensive to reduce 2010 carbon emissions from the Chinese power sector since it necessitates a switch from traditional clean coal technologies (CCTs) to more advanced CCTs. In addition, the potential for carbon trading with developed countries and the sector of the Chinese economy appears weak.}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294779188_Potential_for_US-China_carbon_trading_from_the_electric_power_sector}, author = {Rogers, Peter P. and Kokaz, Karolin and Liu, B.J.} } @article {90616, title = {Controlling carbon emissions in China}, journal = {Environment and Development Economics}, volume = {4}, year = {1999}, pages = {493-518}, abstract = {We examine the use of carbon taxes to reduce emissions of CO2 in China. To do so, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. In addition to accounting for the effects of population growth, capital accumulation, technological change, and changing patterns of demand, we also incorporate into our model elements of the dual nature of China{\textquoteright}s economy where both plan and market institutions exist side by side. We conduct simulations in which carbon emissions are reduced by 5, 10, and 15 per cent from our baseline. After initial declines, in all of our simulations GDP and consumption rapidly exceed baseline levels as the revenue neutral carbon tax serves to transfer income from consumers to producers and then into increased investment. Although subject to a number of caveats, we find potential for what is in some sense a {\textquoteright}double dividend{\textquoteright}, a decrease in emissions of CO2 and a long run increase in GDP and consumption.}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/controlling-carbon-emissions-in-china/E51E45F92C5A53BAA974BF91EEDC0B04}, author = {Garbaccio, Richard and Ho, Mun S and Jorgenson, Dale W} } @article {90766, title = {Particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and pulmonary function in never-smoking adults in Chongqing, China}, journal = {International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health }, volume = {5}, year = {1999}, pages = {14-19}, abstract = {Chongquing is one of the most polluted cities in China. To study the respiratory health effects of air pollution for this city, the authors monitored the ambient levels of particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) in urban and suburban areas and performed pulmonary function testing on 1,075 adults 35 to 60 years of age who had never smoked and did not use coal stoves for cooking or heating. The mean concentration of SO2 in the urban areas (213 micrograms/m3) was twice as high as that in suburban areas (103 micrograms/m3). Mean PM2.5 levels were high in both urban (143 micrograms/m3) and suburban (139 micrograms/m3) areas. A generalized additive model was used to estimate the differences between the two areas in FEV1, FVC, and FEV1/FVC\%, with adjustment for potential confounding factors, including sex, age, height, education, passive smoking, and occupational exposures to dust, gas, or fumes. Estimated differences in FEV1 between the urban and suburban areas were 199 mL (SE = 50 mL) for men and 87 mL (SE = 30 mL) for women, both statistically significant. When the men and women were pooled, the estimated difference in FEV1 was 126 mL (SE = 27 mL). Similar trends were observed for FVC and FEV1/FVC\%. After exclusion of 104 subjects with histories of occupational exposures to dust, gas, or fumes, the estimated difference was some-what smaller than that of the total samples. However, the effects on FEV1 and FEV1/FVC\% remained significant for both men and women.}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10092742}, author = {Wang, B.Y. and Peng, Z.G. and Zhang, X.B. and Xu, Y. and Wang, H.J. and Allen, G. and Wang, L.H. and Xu, X.P.} } @article {90621, title = {Why has the energy output ratio fallen in China?}, journal = {Energy Journal}, volume = {20}, year = {1999}, pages = {63-91}, abstract = {In China, between 1978 and 1995, energy use per unit of GDP fell by 55 percent. There has been considerable debate about the major factors responsible for this dramatic decline in the energy-output ratio. In this paper we use the two most recent input-output tables to decompose the reduction in energy use into technical change and various types of structural change, including changes in the quantity and composition of imports and exports. In performing our analysis we are forced to deal with a number of problems with the relevant Chinese data and introduce some simple adjustments to improve the consistency of the input-output tables. Our main conclusion is that between 1987 and 1992, technical change within sectors accounted for most of the fall in the energyoutput ratio. Structural change actually increased the use of energy. An increase in the import of some energy-intensive products also contributed to the decline in energy intensity.}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279557682_Why_has_the_energy-output_ratio_fallen_in_China_Energy_J}, author = {Garbaccio, Richard and Ho, Mun S and Jorgenson, Dale W} } @article {90581, title = {Limits of the law in addressing China{\textquoteright}s environmental dilemma}, journal = {Stanford Environmental Law Journal}, volume = {16}, year = {1996}, pages = {125-148}, url = {https://litigation-essentials.lexisnexis.com/webcd/app?action=DocumentDisplay\&crawlid=1\&srctype=smi\&srcid=3B15\&doctype=cite\&docid=16+Stan.+Envtl.+L.J.+125\&key=1a206978e4f667518757815810eeb4bf}, author = {Alford, William P. and Shen, Yuanyuan} }