Publications by Type: Journal Article

In Press
Chenghe Guan, Michael Keith, and Andy Hong. In Press. “ Designing walkable cities and neighborhoods in the era of urban big data .” Urban Planning International.Abstract
In this paper, we discuss walkable cities from the perspective of urban planning and design in the era of digitalization and urban big data. We start with a brief review on historical walkable cities schemes; followed by a deliberation on what a walkable city is and what the spatial elements of a walkable city are; and a discussion on the emerging themes and empirical methods to measure the spatial and urban design features of a walkable city. The first part of this paper looks at key urban design propositions and how they were proposed to promote walkability. The second part of this paper discusses the concept of walkability, which is fundamental to designing a walkable city. We emphasize both the physical (walkways, adjacent uses, space) and the perceived aspects (safety, comfort, enjoyment), and then we look at the variety of spatial elements constituting a walkable city. The third part of this paper looks at the emerging themes for designing walkable cities and neighborhoods. We discuss the application of urban big data enabled by growing computational powers and related empirical methods and interdisciplinary approaches including spatial planning, urban design, urban ecology, and public health. This paper aims to provide a holistic approach toward understanding of urban design and walkability, re-evaluate the spatial elements to build walkable cities, and discuss future policy interventions.
Sumeeta Srinivasan, Chenghe Guan, and Chris P. Nielsen. In Press. “Built environment, income and travel behavior: Change in the city of Chengdu 2005-2016.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation.
Jaume Freire-González and Mun S. Ho. In Press. “Carbon Taxes and the Double Dividend Hypothesis in a Dynamic CGE Framework.” Economic Systems Research.
Haikun Wang, Yaoguang Sun, Xi Lu, Yu Deng, Chris P. Nielsen, Ge Zhu, Maoliang Bu, Jun Bi, and Michael B. McElroy. In Press. “China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from diverse characteristics and growth of cities.” Nature Sustainability.
Meng Gao, Peter Sherman, Shaojie Song, Yueyue Yu, Zhiwei Wu, and Michael B. McElroy. In Press. “Seasonal Prediction of Indian Wintertime Aerosol Pollution using the Ocean Memory Effect.” Science Advances.
Chenghe Guan. In Press. “Spatial distribution of high-rise buildings and its relationship to public transit development in Shanghai.” Transport Policy. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The relationship between dense urban development, often represented by high-rise buildings, and its location vis-à-vis metro stations reflects the connection between transportation infrastructure and land use intensity. Existing literature on high-rise buildings has focused either on developed countries or on cities where urban and public transit developments have occurred in an uncoordinated manner. This paper examines the following questions: What is the spatial proximity and spatial correlation between high-rise buildings and metro stations in different stages of development in various parts of the city? What were some of the factors that resulted in the observed patterns? The results suggest that buildings constructed after 2000 and buildings within the urban core/Shanghai Proper districts had a greater spatial proximity to the metro stations. However, the spatial correlation, measured by the number of high-rise buildings within a 500-meter buffer from the nearest metro stations and the time-distance to these stations, is stronger in the outer districts than in the urban core. These differences can be accounted for by Shanghai’s stages of urban development, the existence of metro infrastructure when high-rise development was undertaken, and the city’s land use policies. This case study sheds light on the relationship between high-density developments and metro systems in other large cities in China and other developing countries where rapid urban development coincides with the establishment of a comprehensive public transit system.

James K. Hammitt, Fangli Geng, Xiaoqi Guo, and Chris P. Nielsen. In Press. “Valuing Mortality Risk in China: Comparing Stated-Preference Estimates from 2005 and 2016.” Journal of Risk & Uncertainty. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the “value per statistical life” or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu, China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criteria that willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents) and test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in real income implies an income elasticity of about 3.0. Our results suggest that estimates of VSL from stated-preference studies in which WTP is not close to proportionate to the stated risk reduction may be biased downward by a factor of two or more, and that VSL is likely to grow rapidly in a population with strong economic growth, which implies that environmental-health, safety, and other policies should become increasingly protective.
Submitted
Meng Gao, Zirui Liu, Bo Zheng, Dongsheng Ji, Peter Sherman, Shaojie Song, Jinyuan Xin, Cheng Liu, Yuesi Wang, Qiang Zhang, Zifa Wang, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “China's Clean Air Action has suppressed unfavorable influences of climate on wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing since 2002.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, and Wenhao Hu. Submitted. “Energy Consumption of Urban Households in China.” China Economic Review.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale Jorgenson. Submitted. “Household Consumption in China.” China Economic Review.
Chenghe Guan and Ann Forsyth. Submitted. “The influence of urban form and socio-demographics on active transport: a 40 neighborhoods study in Chengdu, China.” Urban Studies.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale W. Jorgenson. Submitted. “Urban Household Consumption in China.” European Economic Review.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, Dale W. Jorgenson, and Qiong Zhang. Submitted. “Welfare and Inequality Measures for China Based on Consumption.” International Economic Review.
Archana Dayalu, J. William Munger, Yuxuan Wang, Steven C. Wofsy, Yu Zhao, Thomas Nehrkorn, Chris P. Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, and Rachel Y.-W. Chang. Submitted. “Carbon dioxide emissions in northern China based on atmospheric observations from 2005 to 2009.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Chenghe Guan and Peter G. Rowe. Submitted. “On China's Urban Block Community.” Journal of Urban Design.
Faan Chen, Jiaorong Wu, Xiaohong Chen, and Chris Nielsen. Submitted. “Disentangling the impacts of the built environment and self-selection on travel behavior: An empirical study in the context of different housing types.” Journal of Transport Geography.
Peter Sherman, Meng Gao, Shaojie Song, Patrick Ohiomoba, Alex Archibald, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “The influence of dynamics and emissions changes on China’s wintertime haze.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Xueli Zhao, Rong Ma, Xiaofang Wu, Chenghe Guan, Chris P. Nielsen, and Bo Zhang. Submitted. “Linking Agricultural GHG Emissions to Global Trade Network.” Environmental Science & Technology.
Peter Sherman, Xinyu Chen, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “Offshore wind: an opportunity for cost-competitive decarbonization of China’s energy economy.” Joule.
Jiajun Lv, Xinyu Chen, Michael B. McElroy, Chongqing Kang, Mark O’Malley, Qiuwei Wu, and Zhaohong Bie. Submitted. “The optimal investment of flexible heating sources for better integrating wind power in CHP intensive energy systems.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

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