# Publications

2006
Hong Wang and John Mullahy. 2006. “Willingness to pay for reducing fatal risk by improving air quality: A contingent valuation study in Chongqing, China.” Science of the Total Environment, 367, Pp. 50-57. Publisher's VersionAbstract

In China, 76% of all energy comes from coal consumption, which is the major cause of air pollution. One of the major barriers to developing sound policies for controlling air pollution is the lack of information related to the value of the health consequences of air pollution. We conducted a willingness-to-pay (WTP) study using contingent valuation (CV) methods in Chongqing, China to estimate the economic value of saving one statistical life through improving air quality.

A sample of 500 residents was chosen based on multistage sampling methods. A face-to-face household interview was conducted using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenarios followed by bidding game questions designed to elicit the respondents' WTP for air pollution reduction. The Two-Part Model was used for estimations.

The results show that 96% of respondents were able to express their WTP. Their mean annual income is $490. Their WTP to save one statistical life is$34,458. Marginal increases for saving one statistical life is $240 with 1 year age increase,$14,434 with 100 yuan monthly income increase, and \$1590 with 1 year education increase. Unlike developed country, clean air may still be considered as a “luxury” good in China based on the estimation of income elasticity.

2005
Michael B. McElroy and Yuxuan Wang. 2005. “Human and animal wastes: Implications for atmospheric N2O and NOX.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, 2. Publisher's VersionAbstract
More than 220 Tg N are processed annually through the global agriculture/animal/human food chain. It is suggested that aerobic denitrification, reduction of nitrite formed in the first stage of nitrification, is an important source not only of global N2O but also of NOx. A simple top‐down method indicates a globally averaged yield of 2% for N2O emitted as a consequence of human disturbances to the global nitrogen cycle. This yield can account not only for the contemporary budget of atmospheric N2O but also for trends observed over the past 1000 years. The associated microbial source of NOx is estimated assuming a NOx/N2O ratio of 3, consistent with results from a variety of laboratory and field studies. This source is significant, particularly for large developing countries such as China and India for which its contribution is comparable to that from fossil fuel.
Sumeeta Srinivasan. 2005. “Linking land use and transportation in a rapidly urbanizing context: A study in Delhi, India.” Transportation, 32, 1, Pp. 87-104. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Cities in developing countries like India are facing some of the same concerns that North American cities are: congestion and urban growth. However, there is a sense of urgency in cities like Delhi, India in that this growth is far more rapid as both urbanization and motorization are ongoing processes that have not yet peaked. In this paper, we examine land use change and its relationship with transportation infrastructure and other planning related variables in a spatial context. We estimate land use change models at two different scales from separate data. Cellular automation and Markov models were used to understand change at the regional scale and discrete choice models to predict change at the local level. The results suggest that land use in the Delhi metropolitan area is rapidly intensifying while losing variety. These changes are affected by industrial, commercial and infrastructure location and planners and policy-makers need to better understand the implications of location decisions. We also examine these results in the context of a policy framework for data-based planning that links land use and transportation models for Delhi.
Sumeeta Srinivasan and Peter P. Rogers. 2005. “Travel behavior of low-income residents: Studying two contrasting locations in the city of Chennai, India.” Journal of Transport Geography, 13, 3, Pp. 265-274. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Data on travel behavior in developing countries like India is minimal. This is especially true for the relatively poor residents of urban India. They are dependent on fewer options for transportation and have little choice in terms of employment location given their dependence on walking or bicycles. This is significant in cities like Chennai because employment is highly concentrated in the center of the city. In this study, the results of a survey of 70 households in Chennai were analyzed to estimate statistical models of travel behavior with respect to mode choice and trip frequency. The households were located in two different parts of the city: one group of households lived close to the city center (in a settlement called Srinivasapuram) and the other at the periphery (in a location called Kannagi Nagar). We analyze the differences in travel behavior due to differences in accessibility to employment and services between the two settlement locations. The results indicate that differences in accessibility appear to strongly affect travel behavior. Residents in the centrally located settlement were more likely to use non-motorized modes for travel (walk or bicycle) than the peripherally located residents. It is vital therefore that, policy makers in India consider location of employment in the planning of new housing for low-income households.
2004
Y.X. Wang, M.B. McElroy, T. Wang, and P.I. Palmer. 2004. “Asian emissions of CO and NOX: Constraints from aircraft and Chinese station data.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D24304. Publisher's Version
Yuxuan Wang. 2004. “Emissions from China: Implications for the regional and global environment.” Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University.
Y.X. Wang, M.B. McElroy, D.J. Jacob, and R.M. Yantosca. 2004. “A nested grid formulation for chemical transport over Asia: Applications to CO.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D22307. Publisher's VersionAbstract
A global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) was modified to permit treatment of a limited spatial regime with resolution higher than that adopted for the global background. Identified as a one-way nested grid formulation, the model was applied to a simulation of CO over Asia during spring 2001. Differences between results obtained using the nested grid (resolution 1° × 1°), the coarse global model (resolution 4° × 5°), and the intermediate global model (resolution 2° × 2.5°) are discussed. The higher-resolution model allows for more efficient, advection-related, ventilation of the lower atmosphere, reflecting the significance of localized regions of intense upward motion not resolved in a coarser-resolution simulation. Budget analysis suggests that upward transfer to higher altitudes through large-scale advection provides the major sink for CO below 4 km. Horizontal advection, mainly through the north boundary, contributes a net source of CO to the window domain despite the polluted nature of the study region. The nested-grid model is shown to provide good agreement with measurements made during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign in spring 2001, notably better than the low-resolution model in simulating frontal lifting process and differences across the boundary separating the regions of cyclonic and anticyclonic flow. The high-resolution window approach also allows us to differentiate transport mechanisms for individual subregions of China on a much finer scale than was possible previously. Suggestions are made as to how to allow for subgrid vertical advective motions in the low-resolution model through a carefully designed and broadly tested eddy diffusion treatment.
2003
Karen Fisher-Vanden. 2003. “The effects of market reforms on structural change: Implications for energy use and carbon emissions in China.” Energy Journal, 24, 3, Pp. 27-62. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper assesses the role played by market reforms in shaping the future level and composition of production, energy use, and carbon emissions in China. Arguments have been made that reducing distortions in China's economy through market reforms will lead to energy efficiency improvements and lower carbon emissions in China. However, these arguments are based on partial and not general equilibrium analyses, and therefore overlook the effects of market reforms on economic growth and structural change. The results suggest that further implementation of market reforms could result in a structural shift to less carbon-intensive production and thus lower carbon emissions per unit GDP. However, this fall in carbon intensity is not enough to compensate for the greater use of energy as a result of market reforms due to higher economic growth and changes in the composition of production. Therefore, China's transition to a market economy could result in significantly higher economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions. These results could have implications for other countries considering or undergoing market transition.
Y. Zhou, Jonathan I Levy, James K Hammitt, and John S Evans. 2003. “Estimating population exposure to power plant emissions using CALPUFF: A case study in Beijing, China.” Atmospheric Environment, 37, 6, Pp. 815-826. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Epidemiological studies have shown a significant association between ambient particulate matter (PM) exposures and increased mortality and morbidity risk. Power plants are significant emitters of precursor gases of fine particulate matter. To evaluate the public health risk posed by power plants, it is necessary to evaluate population exposure to different pollutants. The concept of intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant emitted that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population) has been proposed to provide a simple summary measure of the relationship between emissions and exposure. Currently available intake fraction estimates from developing countries used models that look only at the near field impacts, which may not capture the full impact of a pollution source. This case study demonstrated how the intake fraction of power plant emissions in China can be calculated using a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model—CALPUFF. We found that the intake fraction of primary fine particles is roughly on the order of 10−5, while the intake fractions of sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrate are on the order of 10−6. These estimates are an order of magnitude higher than the US estimates. We also tested how sensitive the results were to key assumptions within the model. The size distribution of primary particles has a large impact on the intake fraction for primary particles while the background ammonia concentration is an important factor influencing the intake fraction of nitrate. The background ozone concentration has a moderate impact on the intake fraction of sulfate and nitrate. Our analysis shows that this approach is applicable to a developing country and it provides reasonable population exposure estimates.
P. Suntharalingam, C. M. Spivakovsky, J. A. Logan, and M.B. McElroy. 2003. “Estimating the distribution of terrestrial CO2 sources and sinks from atmospheric measurements: Sensitivity to configuration of the observation network.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, D15. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We explore the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 flux estimates from a specific inversion methodology, based on the configuration of Fan et al. [1998], to different configurations of the global observation network. Using diagnostics derived from the inversion equations, we focus on quantifying the relative influence of individual stations on the flux estimates. We also examine the impact of different assumptions for the data uncertainty values by contrasting weighted and unweighted inversions and presenting related sensitivity analyses. For this particular methodology, unweighted estimates of continental scale fluxes prove very sensitive to network configuration. The inclusion or omission of a few important stations in and around the northern continents can result in shifts in continental‐scale flux estimates of up to 1.5 Gt C/year. The weighted estimates are less sensitive to network configuration. Diagnostics of relative station influence indicate that this results from the reduced roles of previously influential continental sites; i.e., those stations characterized by high levels of data uncertainty. In the weighted approach, stations on continental peripheries associated with lower levels of data uncertainty are the most important in determining terrestrial fluxes. Finally, using the diagnostics of relative station influence, we discuss potential sampling strategies for the determination of regional fluxes from surface measurements.
Karen Fisher-Vanden. 2003. “Management structure and technology diffusion in Chinese state-owned enterprises.” Energy Policy, 31, 3, Pp. 247-257. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper identifies factors that can explain the variation in the diffusion of continuous casting technology among Chinese steel firms during the period 1985–1995. Potential factors affecting firm-level diffusion of continuous casting technology are tested econometrically using data from 75 Chinese steel firms. The results suggest that institutional factors, such as management structure, have had a significant influence on a firm's rate of diffusion. In particular, the results show that although centrally managed firms are typically the first to acquire a new technology, complete integration of the technology into the production process occurs more rapidly in firms that are locally managed. Furthermore, the results suggest that certain market factors are important in a locally managed firm's decision to convert, but seem to have played a lesser role in centrally managed firms. These results imply that although centrally managed firms have better access to new technologies due to their close ties to the central government, locally managed firms may possess a greater incentive to improve production efficiency through the incorporation of new technology.
Scott A. Venners, B.Y. Wang, Z.G. Peng, Y. Xu, L.H. Wang, and X.P. Xu. 2003. “Particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and daily mortality in Chongqing, China.” Environmental Health Perspectives, 111, 4, Pp. 562-567. Publisher's VersionAbstract
In 1995, daily mortality in a district of Chongqing, China, was analyzed from January through
December for associations with daily ambient sulfur dioxide and fine particles (airborne particles
with diameters ≤ 2.5 μm; PM2.5). The mean concentration of PM2.5 was 147 μg/m3 (maximum,
666 μg/m3), and that of SO2 was 213 μg/m3 (maximum, 571 μg/m3). On average, 9.6 persons
died each day. We used a generalized additive model using robust Poisson regression to estimate
the associations of mean daily SO2 and PM2.5 with daily mortality (on the same day and at lags up
to 5 days) adjusted for trend, season, temperature, humidity, and day of the week. The relative
risk of mortality associated with a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was highest on the second
lag day [1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00–1.09] and the third lag day (1.04; 95% CI,
0.99–1.08). The associations between daily mortality and mean daily PM2.5 were negative and statistically
insignificant on all days. The relative risk of respiratory mortality on the second day after
a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02–1.22), and that for cardiovascular
mortality was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.02–1.20). The relative risk of cardiovascular mortality on the
third day after a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.11–1.30). The relative
risks of mortality due to cancer and other causes were insignificant on both days. The estimated
effects of mean daily SO2 on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risk remained after controlling for PM2.5.
2002
Ying Zhou. 2002. “Evaluating Power Plant Emissions in China: Human Exposure and Valuation.” Harvard School of Public Health.
William P. Alford, Robert P. Weller, Leslyn Hall, Karen R. Polenske, Yuanyuan Shen, and David Zweig. 2002. “The human dimensions of environmental policy implementation: Air quality in rural China.” Journal of Contemporary China, 11, 32, Pp. 495-513. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The People's Republic of China is experiencing severe air pollution with very serious public health and economic consequences. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has sought to utilize bureaucratic, political, legal and educational vehicles to address these problems. This paper examines the ways in which those policy measures have been communicated to, understood by, and acted upon by the citizenry, drawing in important part on household and epidemiological surveys conducted in Anhui. Our study suggests that the central government's message has yet to be absorbed to the degree intended and then considers both why this has been the case and how the effectiveness of policy mechanisms might be enhanced.
Mun S Ho, Dale W Jorgenson, and Wenhua Di. 2002. “Pollution taxes and public health.” In Economics of the Environment in China, edited by Jeremy J. Warford and Yi Ning Li. Bethesda, MD: Aileen International Press.
Jonathan I Levy, Scott K. Wolff, and John S Evans. 2002. “A regression-based approach for estimating primary and secondary particulate matter intake fractions.” Risk Analysis, 22, 5, Pp. 893-901. Publisher's VersionAbstract
One of the common challenges for life cycle impact assessment and risk assessment is the need to estimate the population exposures associated with emissions. The concept of intake fraction (a unitless term representing the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested) can be used when limited site data are available or the number of sources to model is large. Although studies have estimated intake fractions for some pollutant‐source combinations, there is a need to quickly and accurately estimate intake fractions for sources and settings not previously evaluated. It would be expected that limited source or site information could be used to yield intake fraction estimates with reasonable accuracy. To test this theory, we developed regression models to predict intake fractions previously estimated for primary fine particles (PM2.5) and secondary sulfate and nitrate particles from power plants and mobile sources in the United States. Our regression models were able to predict pollutant‐specific intake fractions with R2 between 0.53 and 0.86 and equations that reflected expected relationships (e.g., intake fraction increased with population density, stack height influenced the intake fraction of primary but not secondary particles). Further analysis would be needed to generalize beyond this case study and construct models applicable across source categories and settings, but our analysis demonstrates that inclusion of a limited number of parameters can significantly reduce the uncertainty in population‐average exposure estimates.
Karolin Kokaz and Peter P. Rogers. 2002. “Urban transportation planning for air quality management: Case study of Delhi, India, and role of social and economic costs in welfare maximization of mobility choice.” Transportation Research Record, 1817, Pp. 42-49. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Recent economic expansion and population growth in developing countries have had a big impact on the development of large cities like Delhi, India. Accompanied by Delhi's rapid spatial growth over the last 25 years, urban sprawl has contributed to increased travel. The vehicle fleet projected at current growth rates will result in more than 13 million vehicles in Delhi in 2020. Planning and managing such a rapidly growing transport sector will be a challenge. Choices made now will have effects lasting well into the middle of the century. With such rapid transport growth rates, automobile emissions have become the fastest increasing source of urban air pollution. In India, most urban areas, including Delhi, already have major air pollution problems that could be greatly exacerbated if growth of the transport sector is managed unwisely. The transport plans designed to meet such large increases in travel demand will have to emphasize the movement of people, not vehicles, for a sustainable transportation system. Therefore, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the optimal transportation mix to meet this projected passenger-km demand while satisfying environmental goals, reducing congestion levels, and improving system and fuel efficiencies by exploiting a variety of policy options at the minimum overall cost or maximum welfare from transport. The results suggest that buses will continue to satisfy most passenger transport in the coming decades, so planning done in accordance with improving bus operations is crucial.
2001
William P. Alford and Benjamin L. Liebman. 2001. “Clean air, clean processes?: The struggle over air pollution law in the People's Republic of China.” Hastings Law Journal, 52, Pp. 703-748. Publisher's Version
Scott A. Venners, Binyan Wang, Jiatong Ni, Yongtang Jin, Jianhua Yang, Zhian Fang, and Xiping Xu. 2001. “Indoor air pollution and respiratory health in urban and rural China.” International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health , 7, 3, Pp. 173-181. Publisher's VersionAbstract
During the summer of 1999, information about respiratory health outcomes and relevant covariates was collected from 3,709 Chinese adults in Beijing, Anqing City, and rural communities in Anqing Prefecture. Indoor PM10 and SO2 were measured in a random sample of selected households. Using logistic regression and controlling for important covariates (excluding PM10 and SO2) and familial intraclass correlation, highly significant differences were found between study areas in the prevalences of chronic cough, chronic phlegm, wheeze, and shortness of breath, but not physician-diagnosed asthma. Generally, the lowest prevalence of respiratory symptoms was observed in Anqing City, a higher prevalence in rural Anqing, and the highest prevalence in Beijing. Median indoor concentrations of PM10 were similar in Anqing City (239 microg/m3) and rural Anqing (248 microg/m3), but much higher in Beijing (557 microg/m3). Median indoor concentrations of SO2 were similar in all three areas (Beijing: 14 microg/m3, Anqing City: 25 microg/m3, rural Anqing: 20 microg/m3).
Karolin Kokaz. 2001. “Optimal modal transport choice in the face of different strategies for air quality management in urban transport planning.” Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University.