Publications

2011
Yu Zhao, Lei Duan, Yu Lei, Jia Xing, Chris P Nielsen, and Jiming Hao. 2011. “Will PM control undermine China's efforts to reduce soil acidification?” Environmental Pollution, 159, 10, Pp. 2726-2732. Publisher's VersionAbstract
China’s strategies to control acidifying pollutants and particulate matter (PM) may be in conflict for soil acidification abatement. Acidifying pollutant emissions are estimated for 2005 and 2020 with anticipated control policies. PM emissions including base cations (BCs) are evaluated with two scenarios, a base case applying existing policy to 2020, and a control case including anticipated tightened measures. Depositions of sulfur (S), nitrogen (N) and BCs are simulated and their acidification risks are evaluated with critical load (CL). In 2005, the area exceeding CL covered 15.6% of mainland China, with total exceedance of 2.2 Mt S. These values decrease in the base scenario 2020, implying partial recovery from acidification. Under more realistic PM control, the respective estimates are 17.9% and 2.4 Mt S, indicating increased acidification risks due to abatement of acid-neutralizing BCs. China’s anthropogenic PM abatement will have potentially stronger chemical implications for acidification than developed countries.
2010
Michael B. McElroy. 2010. “Challenge of global climate change: Prospects for a new energy paradigm.” Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering in China , 4, 1, Pp. 2-11. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Perspectives on the challenge posed by potential future climate change are presented including a discussion of prospects for carbon capture followed either by sequestration or reuse including opportunities for alternatives to the use of oil in the transportation sector. The potential for wind energy as an alternative to fossil fuel energy as a source of electricity is outlined including the related opportunities for cost effective curtailment of future growth in emissions of CO2.
Yuxuan Wang, J. William Munger, Shicheng Xu, Michael B. McElroy, Jiming Hao, Chris P Nielsen, and Hong Ma. 2010. “CO2 and its correlation with CO at a rural site near Beijing: Implications for combustion efficiency in China.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, Pp. 8881-8897. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Although China has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, in situ measurements of atmospheric CO2 have been sparse in China. This paper analyzes hourly CO2 and its correlation with CO at Miyun, a rural site near Beijing, over a period of 51 months (Dec 2004 through Feb 2009). The CO2-CO correlation analysis evaluated separately for each hour of the day provides useful information with statistical significance even in the growing season. We found that the intercept, representing the initial condition imposed by global distribution of CO2 with influence of photosynthesis and respiration, exhibits diurnal cycles differing by season. The background CO2 (CO2,b) derived from Miyun observations is comparable to CO2 observed at a Mongolian background station to the northwest. Annual growth of overall mean CO2 at Miyun is estimated at 2.7 ppm yr−1 while that of CO2,b is only 1.7 ppm yr−1 similar to the mean growth rate at northern mid-latitude background stations. This suggests a relatively faster increase in the regional CO2 sources in China than the global average, consistent with bottom-up studies of CO2 emissions. For air masses with trajectories through the northern China boundary layer, mean winter CO2/CO correlation slopes (dCO2/dCO) increased by 2.8±0.9 ppmv/ppmv or 11% from 2005–2006 to 2007–2008, with CO2 increasing by 1.8 ppmv. The increase in dCO2/dCO indicates improvement in overall combustion efficiency over northern China after winter 2007, attributed to pollution reduction measures associated with the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The observed CO2/CO ratio at Miyun is 25% higher than the bottom-up CO2/CO emission ratio, suggesting a contribution of respired CO2 from urban residents as well as agricultural soils and livestock in the observations and uncertainty in the emission estimates.
Jin-Tai Lin, Michael B. McElroy, and K. Folkert Boersma. 2010. “Constraint of anthropogenic NOx emissions in China from different sectors: A new methodology using separate satellite retrievals.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 1, Pp. 63-78. Publisher's VersionAbstract
A new methodology is developed to constrain
Chinese anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
from four major sectors (industry, power plants, mobile and
residential) in July 2008. It combines tropospheric NO2 column
retrievals from GOME-2 and OMI, taking advantage
of their different passing time over China (10:00 a.m. LT
(local time) versus 02:00 p.m.) and consistent retrieval algorithms.
The approach is based on the difference of NOx
columns at the overpass times of the two instruments; it thus
is less susceptible to the likely systematic errors embedded
in individual retrievals that are consistent with each other.
Also, it explicitly accounts for diurnal variations and uncertainties
of NOx emissions for individual sources. Our best
top-down estimate suggests a national budget of 6.8 TgN/yr
(5.5 TgN/yr for East China), close to the a priori bottom-up
emission estimate from the INTEX-B mission for the year of
2006. The top-down emissions are lower than the a priori
near Beijing, in the northeastern provinces and along the east
coast; yet they exceed the a priori over many inland regions.
Systematic errors in satellite retrievals are estimated to lead
to underestimation of top-down emissions by at most 17%
(most likely 10%). Effects of other factors on the top-down
estimate are typically less than 15% each, including lightning,
soil emissions, mixing in planetary boundary layer, anthropogenic
emissions of carbon monoxide and volatile organic
compounds, magnitude of a priori emissions, assumptions
on emission diurnal variations, and uncertainties in the
four sectors. The a posteriori emission budget is 5.7 TgN/yr
for East China.
Xi Lu. 2010. “Electricity from Wind: Opportunities and Challenges.” School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University.
Michael B. McElroy. 2010. Energy: Perspectives, Problems and Prospects. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The book offers a comprehensive account of how the world evolved to its present state in which humans now exercise a powerful, in many cases dominant, influence for global environmental change. It outlines the history that led to this position of dominance, in particular the role played by our increasing reliance on fossil sources of energy, on coal, oil and natural gas, and the problems that we are now forced to confront as a result of this history. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is greater now than at any time over at least the past 650,000 years with prospects to increase over the next few decades to levels not seen since dinosaurs roamed the Earth 65 million years ago. Comparable changes are evident also for methane and nitrous oxide and for a variety of other constituents of the atmosphere including species such as the ozone depleting chlorofluorocarbons for which there are no natural analogues.

Increases in the concentrations of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are responsible for important changes in global and regional climate with consequences for the future of global society which, though difficult to predict in detail, are potentially catastrophic for a world poorly equipped to cope. Changes of climate in the past were repetitively responsible for the demise of important civilizations. These changes, however, were generally natural in origin in contrast to the changes now underway for which humans are directly responsible. The challenge is to transition to a new energy economy in which fossil fuels will play a much smaller role. We need as a matter of urgency to cut back on emissions of climate altering gases such as carbon dioxide while at the same time reducing our dependence on unreliable, potentially disruptive, though currently indispensable, sources of energy such as oil, the lifeblood of the global transportation system. The book concludes with a discussion of options for a more sustainable energy future, highlighting the potential for contributions from wind, sun, biomass, geothermal and nuclear, supplanting currently unsustainable reliance on coal, oil and natural gas.
Yu Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Chris P Nielsen, Xinghua Li, and Jiming Hao. 2010. “Establishment of a database of emission factors for atmospheric pollutant emissions from Chinese coal-fired power plants.” Atmospheric Environment, 44, 12, Pp. 1515-1523. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Field measurements and data investigations were conducted for developing an emission factor database for inventories of atmospheric pollutants from Chinese coal-fired power plants. Gaseous pollutants and particulate matter (PM) of different size fractions were measured using a gas analyzer and an electric low-pressure impactor (ELPI), respectively, for ten units in eight coal-fired power plants across the country. Combining results of field tests and literature surveys, emission factors with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by boiler type, fuel quality, and emission control devices using bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations. The emission factor of uncontrolled SO2 from pulverized combustion (PC) boilers burning bituminous or anthracite coal was estimated to be 18.0S kg t−1 (i.e., 18.0 × the percentage sulfur content of coal, S) with a 95% CI of 17.2S–18.5S. NOX emission factors for pulverized-coal boilers ranged from 4.0 to 11.2 kg t−1, with uncertainties of 14–45% for different unit types. The emission factors of uncontrolled PM2.5, PM10, and total PM emitted by PC boilers were estimated to be 0.4A (where A is the percentage ash content of coal), 1.5A and 6.9A kg t−1, respectively, with 95% CIs of 0.3A–0.5A, 1.1A–1.9A and 5.8A–7.9A. The analogous PM values for emissions with electrostatic precipitator (ESP) controls were 0.032A (95% CI: 0.021A–0.046A), 0.065A (0.039A–0.092A) and 0.094A (0.0656A–0.132A) kg t−1, and 0.0147A (0.0092–0.0225A), 0.0210A (0.0129A–0.0317A), and 0.0231A (0.0142A–0.0348A) for those with both ESP and wet flue-gas desulfurization (wet-FGD). SO2 and NOX emission factors for Chinese power plants were smaller than those of U.S. EPA AP-42 database, due mainly to lower heating values of coals in China. PM emission factors for units with ESP, however, were generally larger than AP-42 values, because of poorer removal efficiencies of Chinese dust collectors. For units with advanced emission control technologies, more field measurements are needed to reduce emission factor uncertainties.
Jin-Tai Lin and Michael B. McElroy. 2010. “Impacts of boundary layer mixing on pollutant vertical profiles in the lower troposphere: Implications to satellite remote sensing.” Atmospheric Environment, 44, 14, Pp. 1726-1739. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) affects vertical distributions of air tracers in the lower troposphere. An accurate representation of PBL mixing is critical for chemical-transport models (CTMs) for applications sensitive to simulations of the vertical profiles of tracers. The full mixing assumption in the widely used global CTM GEOS-Chem has recently been supplemented with a non-local PBL scheme. This study analyzes the impact of the non-local scheme on model representation of PBL mixing, consequences for simulations of vertical profiles of air tracers and surface air pollution, and implications for model applications to the interpretation of data retrieved from satellite remote sensing. The non-local scheme significantly improves simulations of the vertical distributions for NO2 and O3, as evaluated using aircraft measurements in summer 2004. It also reduces model biases over the U.S. by more than 10 ppb for surface ozone concentrations at night and by 2–5 ppb for peak ozone in the afternoon, as evaluated using ground observations. The application to inverse modeling of anthropogenic NOx emissions for East China using satellite retrievals of NO2 from OMI and GOME-2 suggests that the full mixing assumption results in 3–14% differences in top–down emission budgets as compared to the non-local scheme. The top–down estimate combining the non-local scheme and the Lin et al. inverse modeling approach suggests a magnitude of 6.6 TgN yr−1 for emissions of NOx over East China in July 2008 and 8.0 TgN yr−1 for January 2009, with the magnitude and seasonality in good agreement with bottom–up estimates.
Sumeeta Srinivasan. 2010. “Linking travel behavior and location in Chengdu, China: A geographically weighted approach.” Transportation Research Record, 2193, Pp. 85-95. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This study uses geographically weighted regressions and multilevel models to understand the implications of location and attitudinal characteristics for travel behavior in Chengdu, China. In particular, the estimated distance traveled and the mode choice of nonmotorized versus motorized vehicles for work- and school-related trips were examined by using a recent household trip diary data set. The results suggest that location characteristics may be influential in the prediction of travel behavior but cannot be fully captured by simple categorization such as inner ring location versus peripheral location. Variations in travel behavior can be related to socioeconomic and location variables in ways that vary by location in a complex manner. Policy makers should therefore reconsider the role that location and attitudinal implications may play in meeting travel demand in rapidly developing cities like Chengdu.
Jieping Li, Joan L Walker, Sumeeta Srinivasan, and William P Anderson. 2010. “Modeling private car ownership in China: Investigating the impact of urban form across mega-cities.” Transportation Research Record , 2193, Pp. 76-84. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The rising prevalence of private cars in the developing world is causing serious congestion and pollution. In China, private cars started to emerge as an important travel mode in the past decade. Prospective research on the relationship between urban form and car ownership is relatively uncommon in the developing world, and China offers a unique study opportunity, given the tremendous increases in private cars and fast-paced urbanization over the past decade. This study investigates the influence of urban form on car ownership as well as the impact of other socioeconomic and demographic factors on private car ownership across megacities in China. Analysis was conducted through the use of data from 36 megacities and two household survey data sets collected in Beijing and the city of Chengdu, China. Ordinary least squares regression and discrete choice models were employed to execute the aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the urban form impact on private car ownership across cities. The statistical model results demonstrate that urban affluence, urban scale, and road infrastructure supply factors have significant positive effects on the city level of private car ownership across cities. Population density calculated at the subdistrict level, however, had a significant negative effect on private car ownership across cities. Households with private cars were found to prefer to live close to urban centers where amenities were readily available. The results provide evidence for urban planners and policy makers.

This paper uses data from the Project's household survey in Chengdu, Sichuan.

Jintai Lin, Chris P Nielsen, Yu Zhao, Yu Lei, Yang Liu, and Michael B. McElroy. 2010. “Recent changes in particulate air pollution over China observed from space and ground: Effectiveness of emission control.” Environmental Science and Technology, 44, 20, Pp. 7771-7776. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The Chinese government has moved aggressively since 2005 to reduce emissions of a number of pollutants including primary particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), efforts inadvertently aided since late 2008 by economic recession. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) provide independent indicators of emission trends, clearly reflecting the sharp onset of the recession in the fall of 2008 and rebound of the economy in the latter half of 2009. Comparison of AOD with ground-based observations of PM over a longer period indicate that emission-control policies have not been successful in reducing concentrations of aerosol pollutants at smaller size range over industrialized regions of China. The lack of success is attributed to the increasing importance of anthropogenic secondary aerosols formed from precursor species including nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), and ammonia (NH3).
Joan L Walker, Jieping Li, Sumeeta Srinivasan, and Denis Bolduc. 2010. “Travel demand models in the developing world: Correcting for measurement errors.” Transportation Letters, 2, 4, Pp. 231-243. Publisher's VersionAbstract
While transport modelers in developed countries are accustomed to working with relatively rich datasets including transport networks and land use data, such databases are rarely available in developing countries. However, developing countries such as China with its immense rate of economic growth are, arguably, most in need of demand models. The research addressed in this paper is how to develop mode choice models for planning and policy analysis when high quality level of service data are not available. The research makes use of a 1,001 household travel and activity survey from Chengdu collected by the China Project at Harvard University in 2005. Chengdu has an urban population of over 3 million and a GDP growth rate of over 20% per year. The survey contains a rich array of self-assessed information on available modes and accessibility and also includes a number of attitudinal questions. The approach taken here is to treat level of service as a latent (i.e., unobservable) variable. Measurement equations (from the structural equation model paradigm) are used to infer latent level of service, and these equations are integrated with the mode choice model. Our initial results indicate that models that do not correct for measurement error may significantly underestimate travelers' values of time. The methodological approach employed has potential for improving models estimated with higher quality network data, because it can correct for measurement error that exists, for example, in network-derived level of service variables.

This paper is based on data from the Project's household survey in Chengdu, Sichuan.

Yuxuan Wang, Michael B. McElroy, J. William Munger, Jiming Hao, Hong Ma, and Chris P Nielsen. 2010. “Year-round measurements of O3 and CO at a rural site near Beijing: Variations in their correlations.” Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 62, 4, Pp. 228-241. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We examine seasonal variations of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and their relationships observed over the course of 3 yr (2005–2007) at Miyun, a rural site 100 km north of Beijing. Monthly mean afternoon mixing ratios of CO have broad maxima in winter and a secondary peak in June. Monthly mean afternoon O3 shows a clear seasonal pattern with a major peak in June (85 ppb), a secondary peak in September (65 ppb) and minimum in winter (50–55 ppb). The seasonal cycles of O3 and CO are associated with seasonal changes in dominant synoptic pattern. Substantial interannual variability is found for CO which is attributed to the interannual variability of meteorology and emissions from biomass burning. The seasonality and magnitude of background CO and O3 derived at Miyun are consistent with observations at upwind remote continental sites. The O3–CO correlation slope is about 0.07 ppb ppb−1 on average in summer, significantly lower than the typical slope of 0.3 ppb ppb−1 reported for developed countries. The O3–CO correlation slope shows large gradients for different types of air masses (0.133 ± 0.017 ppb ppb−1 in aged urban pollution plumes and 0.047 ± 0.008 ppb ppb−1 in biomass burning plumes), suggesting that the conventional method of direct scaling the mean O3–CO slope by CO emissions to deduce O3 production rate is subject to large uncertainties if applied for China.
2009
Jieping Li. 2009. “Application of latent variables in transport planning models.” Department of Geography and Environment, Boston University. Publisher's Version
Jing Cao, Richard Garbaccio, and Mun S Ho. 2009. “China's 11th Five-Year Plan and the environment: Reducing SO2 emissions.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 3, 2, Pp. 189-208. Publisher's VersionAbstract
China's rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a high level of environmental degradation. One of the major sources of health and ecosystem damages is sulfur dioxide (SO2). Reducing SO2 emissions is a priority of China's environmental authorities, and the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–2010) includes the target of reducing total SO2 emissions by 10 percent from the 2005 level. Given the rapid increase in SO2 emissions that is expected to occur in absence of intervention, attaining this target will require a significant effort. This article examines the two major policy measures the government is taking to achieve the SO2 target: a shutdown of many small, inefficient power plants and the installation of desulfurization equipment on existing and new coal-fired plants. We present results from a joint U.S.–China study that we participated in, which estimated the costs and benefits of these policies. We then estimate the economy-wide impacts of the two policies using a multisector model of the Chinese economy. We find that in the aggregate, the economic benefits of the shutdown of the small power plants are large enough to offset the costs of the desulfurization equipment, even without considering the substantial environmental benefits from the reduction of emissions of SO2 and other pollutants.
Xiaoqi Guo and James K Hammitt. 2009. “Compensating wage differentials with unemployment: Evidence from China.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 42, 2, Pp. 187-209. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.

This study developed a new approach to the valuation of health risk in China, for monetizing health damages of environmental degradation.

Youn Daeok, Kenneth O Patten, Jin-Tai Lin, and Donald J. Wuebbles. 2009. “Explicit calculation of indirect global warming potentials for halons using atmospheric models.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 22, Pp. 8719-8733. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The concept of Global Warming Potentials
(GWPs) has been extensively used in policy consideration
as a relative index for comparing the climate impact of an
emitted greenhouse gas (GHG), relative to carbon dioxide
with equal mass emissions. Ozone depletion due to emission
of chlorinated or brominated halocarbons leads to cooling
of the climate system in the opposite direction to the direct
warming contribution by halocarbons as GHGs. This
cooling is a key indirect effect of the halocarbons on climatic
radiative forcing, which is accounted for by indirect GWPs.
With respect to climate, it is critical to understand net influences
considering direct warming and indirect cooling effects
especially for Halons due to the greater ozone-depleting efficiency
of bromine over chlorine. Until now, the indirect
GWPs have been calculated using a parameterized approach
based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric
Chlorine (EESC) and the observed ozone depletion over the
last few decades. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs
through a more robust approach, we use atmospheric models
to explicitly calculate the indirect GWPs of Halon-1211
and Halon-1301 for a 100-year time horizon. State-of-theart
global chemistry-transport models (CTMs) were used as
the computational tools to derive more realistic ozone depletion
changes caused by an added pulse emission of the
two major Halons at the surface. The radiative forcings on
climate from the ozone changes have been calculated for indirect
GWPs using an atmospheric radiative transfer model
(RTM). The simulated temporal variations of global average
total column Halons after a pulse perturbation follow an exponential
decay with an e-folding time which is consistent
with the expected chemical lifetimes of the Halons. Our cal-
Correspondence to: D. J. Wuebbles
(wuebbles@atmos.uiuc.edu)
culated indirect GWPs for the two Halons are much smaller
than those from past studies but are within a single standard
deviation of WMO (2007) values and the direct GWP values
derived agree with the published values. Our model-based
assessment of the Halon indirect GWPs thus confirms the
significant importance of indirect effects on climate.
Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, and Juha Kiviluoma. 2009. “Global potential for wind generated electricity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 27, Pp. 10933-10938s. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply >40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, >5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths <200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.

Wind power accounted for 42% of all new electrical capacity added to the United States electrical system in 2008 although wind continues to account for a relatively small fraction of the total electricity-generating capacity [25.4 gigawatts (GW) of a total of 1,075 GW] (ref. 1; www.awea.org/pubs/documents/Outlook_2009.pdf). The Global Wind Energy Council projected the possibility of a 17-fold increase in wind-powered generation of electricity globally by 2030 (ref. 2; www.gwec.net/fileadmin/documents/Publications/GWEO_2008_final.pdf). Short et al. (3), using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's WinDs model, concluded that wind could account for as much as 25% of U.S. electricity by 2050 (corresponding to an installed wind capacity of ≈300 GW).

Archer and Jacobson (4) estimated that 20% of the global total wind power potential could account for as much as 123 petawatt-hours (PWh) of electricity annually [corresponding to annually averaged power production of 14 terawatts (TW)] equal to 7 times the total current global consumption of electricity (comparable to present global use of energy in all forms). Their study was based on an analysis of data for the year 2000 from 7,753 surface meteorological stations complemented by data from 446 stations for which vertical soundings were available. They restricted their attention to power that could be generated by using a network of 1.5-megawatt (MW) turbines tapping wind resources from regions with annually averaged wind speeds in excess of 6.9 m/s (wind class 3 or better) at an elevation of 80 m. The meteorological stations used in their analysis were heavily concentrated in the United States, Europe, and Southeastern Asia. Results inferred for other regions of the world are subject as a consequence to considerable uncertainty.

The present study is based on a simulation of global wind fields from version 5 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5 DAS). Winds included in this compilation were obtained by retrospective analysis of global meteorological data using a state-of-the-art weather/climate model incorporating inputs from a wide variety of observational sources (5), including not only surface and sounding measurements as used by Archer and Jacobson (4) but also results from a diverse suite of measurements and observations from a combination of aircraft, balloons, ships, buoys, dropsondes and satellites, in short the gamut of observational data used to provide the world with the best possible meteorological forecasts enhanced by application of these data in a retrospective analysis. The GEOS-5 wind field is currently available for the period 2004 to the present (March 20, 2009) with plans to extend the analysis 30 years back in time. The GEOS-5 assimilation was adopted in the present analysis to take advantage of the relatively high spatial resolution available with this product as compared with the lower spatial resolutions available with alternative products such as ERA-40, NECP II, and JRA-25. It is used here in a detailed study of the potential for globally distributed wind-generated electricity in 2006.

We begin with a description of the methodology adopted for the present study. The land-based turbines envisaged here are assumed to have a rated capacity of 2.5 MW with somewhat larger turbines, 3.6 MW, deployed offshore, reflecting the greater cost of construction and the economic incentive to deploy larger turbines to capture the higher wind speeds available in these regions. In siting turbines over land, we specifically excluded densely populated regions and areas occupied by forests and environments distinguished by permanent snow and ice cover (notably Greenland and Antarctica). Turbines located offshore were restricted to water depths <200 m and to distances within 92.6 km (50 nautical miles) of shore.

These constraints are then discussed, and results from the global analysis are presented followed by a more detailed discussion of results for the United States.

Jing Cao, Mun S Ho, Dale W Jorgenson, Rouen Ren, Linlin Sun, and Ximing Yue. 2009. “Industrial and aggregate measures of productivity growth in China, 1982-2000.” Review of Income Wealth , 55, s1, Pp. 485-513. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input–output tables covering 1982–2000. Capital input is measured using detailed investment data by asset and labor input uses demographic information from household surveys. We find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level. We then show how these industry growth accounts may be consistently aggregated to deliver a decomposition of aggregate GDP growth. For the 1982–2000 period aggregate TFP growth was 2.5 percent per year; decelerating from a rapid rate in the early 1980s to negative growth during 1994–2000. The main source of growth during the 1982–2000 period was capital accumulation, with a small negative contribution from the reallocation of factors across industries.
Jing Cao, Mun S Ho, and Dale W Jorgenson. 2009. “The local and global benefits of green tax policies in China.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 3, 2, Pp. 231-250. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This article describes a multidisciplinary study of market-based policies for controlling air pollution in China. While previous studies have examined the costs and benefits of pollution control separately, this approach determines them together using an economy–environment model for China. We employ air dispersion simulations and population maps to calculate health damages due to air pollution. This provides estimates of incremental damages for industry output and fuel use. Based on these marginal damages, we simulate the effect of “green taxes” on the economy and show that the environmental benefits exceed the aggregate costs, ignoring adjustment costs for individual sectors.

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