Publications To Date of China 2030/2050, Supported by the Harvard Global Institute

As of November 1, 2019 


  1. Cao, Jing, Mun S. Ho, Dale W. Jorgenson, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “China emissions trading system and an ETS-carbon tax hybrid.”  Energy Economics, 81, pp. 741-753.
  2. Cao, Jing, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale W. Jorgenson. Submitted. “Urban household consumption in China.”  European Economic Review.
  3. Cao, Jing, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale W. Jorgenson. Submitted. “Household consumption in China.”  China Economic Review.
  4. Cao, Jing, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, Dale W. Jorgenson, and Qiong Zhang. Submitted. “Welfare and inequality measures for China based on consumption.”  International Economic Review.
  5. Cao, Jing, Mun Sing Ho, Yating Li, Richard G. Newell, and William A. Pizer. 2019. “Chinese residential electricity consumption estimation and forecast using micro-data.”  Resource and Energy Economics, 56, pp. 6-27.
  6. Chen, Faan, Jiaorong Wu, Xiaohong Chen, and Chris Nielsen. Submitted. “Disentangling the impacts of the built environment and self-selection on travel behavior: An empirical study in the context of different housing types.”  Journal of Transport Geography.
  7. Chen, Shi, Xi Lu, Yufei Miao, Yu Deng, Chris P. Nielsen, Noah Elbot, Yuanchen Wang, Kathryn G. Logan, Michael B. McElroy, and Jiming Hao. 2019. “The potential of photovoltaics to power the Belt and Road Initiative.”  Joule, 3, pp. 1-18.
  8. Chen, Xinyu, Jiajun Lv, Michael B. McElroy, Xingning Han, Chris Nielsen, and Jinyu Wen. 2018. “Power system capacity expansion under higher penetration of renewables considering flexibility constraints and low carbon policies."  IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 33, 6, pp. 6240-6253.
  9. Chen, Xinyu, Junling Huang, Qing Yang, Chris P. Nielsen, Dongbo Shi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2018. “Changing carbon content of Chinese coal and implications for emissions of CO2.”  Journal of Cleaner Production, 194, pp. 150-157.
  10. Chen, Xinyu, Michael B. McElroy, and Chongqing Kang. 2017. “Integrated energy systems for higher wind penetration in China: Formulation, implementation, and impacts.”  IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 33, 2, pp. 1309-1319.
  11. Chen, Xinyu, Zhiwei Xu, Chris P. Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2018. “Impacts of fleet types and charging modes for electric vehicles on emissions under different penetrations of wind power.”  Nature Energy, 3, pp. 413-421.
  12. Chen, Xinyu, Michael B. McElroy, Qiuwei Wu, Yinbiao Shu, and Yusheng Xue. 2018. “Transition towards higher penetration of renewables: An overview of interlinked technical, environmental and socio-economic challenges.”  Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 7, 1, pp. 1-8.
  13. Dayalu, Archana, J. William Munger, Yuxuan Wang, Steven C. Wofsy, Yu Zhao, Thomas Nehrkorn, Chris P. Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, and Rachel Y.-W. Chang. Submitted. “Carbon dioxide emissions in northern China based on atmospheric observations from 2005 to 2009.”  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Manuscript available on ACPD for discussion.
  14. Dayalu, Archana. 2017. “Exploring the wide net of human energy systems: From carbon dioxide emissions in China to hydraulic fracturing chemicals usage in the United States."  Ph.D. diss. Harvard University Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences.
  15. Dayalu, Archana, William Munger, Steven Wofsy, Yuxuan Wang, Thomas Nehrkorn, Yu Zhao, Michael McElroy, Chris Nielsen, and Kristina Luus. 2018. “Assessing biotic contributions to CO2 fluxes in northern China using the Vegetation, Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM-CHINA) and observations from 2005 to 2009.”  Biogeosciences, 15, pp. 6713-6729.
  16. Freire-González, Jaume, and Mun S. Ho. 2018. “Environmental fiscal reform and the double dividend: evidence from a dynamic general equilibrium model.”  Sustainability, 10, 2.
  17. Freire-González, Jaume, and Mun S. Ho. 2019. “Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain.” Economic Systems Research, 31:2, pp. 267-284.
  18. Gao, Meng, Yihui Ding, Shaojie Song, Xiao Lu, Xinyu Chen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2018. “Secular decrease of wind power potential in India associated with warming Indian Ocean.”  Science Advances, 4, 12, eaat5256.
  19. Gao, Meng, Gufran Beig, Shaojie Song, Hongliang Zhang, Jianlin Hu, Qi Ying, Fengchao Liang, Yang Liu, Haikun Wang, Xiao Lu, Tong Zhu, Gregory Carmichael, Chris P. Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2018. “The impact of power generation emissions on ambient PM2.5 pollution and human health in China and India.”  Environment International, 121, Part 1, pp. 250-259.
  20. Gao, Meng, Peter Sherman, Shaojie Song, Yueyue Yu, Zhiwei Wu, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “Seasonal prediction of Indian wintertime aerosol pollution using the ocean memory effect.”  Science Advances, 5, 7, eaav4157.
  21. Gao, Meng, Zirui Liu, Bo Zheng, Dongsheng Ji, Peter Sherman, Shaojie Song, Jinyuan Xin, Cheng Liu, Yuesi Wang, Qiang Zhang, Zifa Wang, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “China's Clean Air Action has suppressed unfavorable influences of climate on wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing since 2002.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.  Manuscript available on ACPD for discussion.
  22. Guan, Chenghe, and Richard B. Peiser. 2018. “Accessibility, urban form, and property value: Toward a sustainable urban spatial structure.”  Journal of Transport and Land Use, 11,1, pp. 1057-1080.
  23. Guan, Chenghe. 2018. “Urban form and digitalization of urban design.”  Urban Planning International, 33, 1, pp. 22-27.
  24. Guan, Chenghe. 2019. “Spatial distribution of high-rise buildings and its relationship to public transit development in Shanghai.”  Transport Policy, 81, pp. 371-380.
  25. Guan, Chenghe, Sumeeta Srinivasan, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Does neighborhood form influence low-carbon transportation in China?”  Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 67, pp. 406-429.
  26. Guan, Chenghe, and Ann Forsyth. Submitted. “The influence of urban form and socio-demographics on active transport: a 40 neighborhoods study in Chengdu, China.”  Urban Studies.
  27. Guan, Chenghe, and Peter G. Rowe. Submitted. “On China’s urban block community.”  Journal of Urban Design.
  28. Guo, Meiyu, Xi Lu, Chris P. Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, Wenrui Shi, Yuntian Chen, and Xuan Yu. 2016. “Prospects for shale gas production in China: Implications for water demand.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 66, December, pp. 742-750.
  29. Hammitt, James K., Fangli Geng, Xiaoqi Guo, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016.”  Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 58, 2-3, pp. 167-168.
  30. Han, Mengyao, Bo Zhang, Yuqing Zhang, and Chenghe Guan. 2019. “Agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions of major economies: Consumptions- vs. production-based perspectives.”  Journal of Cleaner Production, 210, pp. 276-286.
  31. Han, Xingning, Xinyu Chen, Michael B. McElroy, Shiwu Liao, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Modeling formulation and validation for accelerated simulation and flexibility assessment on large scale power systems under higher renewable penetrations.”  Applied Energy, 237, pp. 145-154. 
  32. Hu, Wenhao, Jing Cao, and Mun S Ho. 2019. “Energy consumption of urban households in China.  China Economic Review, 58.
  33. Lu, Tianguang, Xinyu Chen, Michael B. McElroy, Chris P. Nielsen, Qiuwei Wu, and Qian Ai. Submitted. A Reinforcement Learning-Based Decision System for Electricity Pricing Plan Selection by Smart Grid End Users.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.
  34. Lu, Xi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2017. “Global potential for wind generated electricity.”  In Wind Energy Engineering: A Handbook for Onshore and Offshore Wind Turbines, edited by Trevor M. Letcher. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  35. Lu, Xi, Liang Cao, Haikun Wang, Wei Peng, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Siyi Cai, Bo Shen, Qing Yang, Chris P. Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2019. “Gasification of coal and biomass: a net carbon-negative power source for environmental-friendly electricity generation in China."  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 17, pp. 8206-8213.
  36. Lu, Xi, Michael B. McElroy, Wei Peng, Shiyang Liu, Chris P. Nielsen, and Haikun Wang. 2016. “Challenges faced by China compared with the US in developing wind power.”  Nature Energy, 1, 6.
  37. Lv, Jiajun, Xinyu Chen, Michael B. McElroy, Chongqing Kang, Mark O’Malley, Qiuwei Wu, and Zhaohong Bie. Submitted. “The optimal investment of flexible heating sources for better integrating wind power in CHP intensive energy systems.”  IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
  38. McElroy, Michael B. 2016. Energy and Climate: Vision for the Future. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press.
  39. McElroy, Michael B. 2018. “Can China address air pollution and climate change?.”  In The China Questions: Critical Insights into a Rising Power, edited by Jennifer Rudolph and Michael Szonyi. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  40. McElroy, Michael B., and Xinyu Chen. 2017. “Wind and solar power in the United States: Status and prospects.”  Chinese Society for Electrical Engineering (CSEE) Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 3, 1.
  41. McElroy, Michael B., Xinyu Chen, and Yawen Deng. 2018. “The missing money problem: incorporation of increased resources from wind in a representative US power market.”  Renewable Energy, 126, pp. 126-136.
  42. Moch, Jonathan M., Eleni Dovrou, Loretta J. Mickley, Frank N. Keutsch, Yuan Cheng, Daniel J. Jacob, Jingkun Jiang, Meng Li, J. William Munger, Xiaohui Qiao, and Qiang Zhang. 2018. “Contribution of hydroxymethane sulfonate to ambient particulate matter: A potential explanation for high particulate sulfur during severe winter haze in Beijing.”  Geophysical Research Letters, 45, pp. 11969-11979.
  43. Sheng, Jiangxiong, Shaojie Song, Yuzhong Zhang, Ronald G. Prinn, and Greet Janssens-Maenhout. 2019. “Bottom-up estimates of coal mine methane emissions in China: A gridded inventory, emission factors, and trends.”  Environmental Science and Technology Letters, 6, 8, pp. 473-478.
  44. Sherman, Peter, Xinyu Chen, and Michael B. McElroy. In press. “Offshore wind: an opportunity for cost-competitive decarbonization of China’s energy economy.”  Science Advances.
  45. Sherman, Peter, Meng Gao, Shaojie Song, Patrick Ohiomoba, Alex Archibald, and Michael B. McElroy. 2019. “The influence of dynamics and emissions changes on China’s wintertime haze.”  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
  46. Sherman, Peter, Xinyu Chen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2017. “Wind-generated electricity in China: Decreasing potential, inter-annual variability, and association with climate change.”  Nature Scientific Reports, 7, 16294.
  47. Song, Shaojie, Meng Gao, Weiqi Xu, Jingyuan Shao, Guoliang Shi, Shuxiao Wang, Yuxuan Wang, Yele Sun, and Michael McElroy. 2018. “Fine particle pH for Beijing winter haze as inferred from different thermodynamic equilibrium models.”  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, pp. 7423-7438.
  48. Song, S.J., M. Gao, W.Q. Xu, Y.L. Sun, D.R. Worsnop, J.T. Jayne, Y.Z. Zhang, L. Zhu, M. Li, Z. Zhou, C.L. Cheng, Y.B. Lv, Y. Wang, W. Peng, X.B. Xu, N. Lin, Y.X. Wang, S.X. Wang, J.W. Munger, D. Jacob, and M.B. McElroy. 2019. “Possible heterogeneous hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) chemistry in northern China winter haze and implications for rapid sulfate formation.”  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19, pp. 1357-1371.
  49. Srinivasan, Sumeeta, Chenghe Guan and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Built environment, income and travel behavior: Changes in Chengdu 2005-2016.”  International Journal of Sustainable Transport.
  50. Timilsina, Govinda R., Jing Cao, and Mun S. Ho. 2018. “Carbon tax for achieving China's NDC: Simulations of some design features using a CGE model.”  Climate Change Economics, 9, 3.
  51. Wang, Haikun, Yanxu Zhang, Xi Lu, Weimo Zhu, Chris P. Nielsen, Jun Bi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2017. “Trade‐driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China.”  Nature Communications, 8, 738.
  52. Wang, Haikun, Xi Lu, Yu Deng, Yaoguang Sun, Chris P. Nielsen, Yifan Liu, Ge Zhu, Maoliang Bu, Jun Bi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2019. “China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from diverse characteristics and growth of cities.”  Nature Sustainability.
  53. Xie, Rong, Clive E. Sabel, Xi Lu, Weimo Zhu, Haidong Kan, Chris P. Nielsen, and Haikun Wang. 2016. “Long-term trend and spatial pattern of PM2.5-induced premature mortality in China.”  Environment International, 97, pp. 180-186.
  54. Yang, Qing, Hewen Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhang, Chris P. Nielsen, Jiashuo Li, Xi Lu, Haiping Yang, and Hanping Chen. 2018. “Hybrid life-cycle assessment for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a typical biomass gasification power plant in China.”  Journal of Cleaner Production, 205, pp. 661-671.
  55. Yang, Qing, Ji Liang, Jiashuo Li, Haiping Yang, and Hanping Chen. 2018. “Life cycle water use of a biomass-based pyrolysis polygeneration system in China.”  Applied Energy, 224, pp. 469-480.
  56. Zhang, Bo, Xueli Zhao, Xiaofang Wu, Mengyao Han, Chenghe Guan, and Shaojie Song. 2018. “Consumption-based accounting of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions.”  Earth’s Future, 6, 9, pp. 1349-1363.
  57. Zhang, Ning, Xi Lu, Chris P. Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, Xinyu Chen, Yu Deng, and Chongqing Kang. 2016. “Reducing curtailment of wind electricity in China by employing electric boilers for heat and pumped hydro for energy storage.”  Applied Energy, 184, pp. 987-994.
  58. Zhang, Yan, Xin Bo, Yu Zhao, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Benefits of current and future policies on emissions of China's coal-fired power sector indicated by continuous emission monitoring.”  Environmental Pollution, 251, pp. 415-424.
  59. Zhao, Xueli, Rong Ma, Xiaofang Wu, Chenghe Guan, Chris P. Nielsen, and Bo Zhang. Submitted. “Linking agricultural GHG emissions to global trade network.”  Environmental Science & Technology.
  60. Zhong, Nan, Jing Cao, and Yuzhu Wang. 2017. “Traffic congestion, ambient air pollution and health: Evidence from driving restrictions in Beijing.”  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 4, 3, pp. 821–856.