In Press
Jing Cao, Mun Sing Ho, Yating Li, Richard G. Newell, and William A. Pizer. In Press. “Chinese residential electricity consumption estimation and forecast using micro-data.” Resource and Energy Economics. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Based on econometric estimation using data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey, we develop a preferred forecast range of 85–143 percent growth in residential per capita electricity demand over 2009–2025. Our analysis suggests that per capita income growth drives a 43% increase, with the remainder due to an unexplained time trend. Roughly one-third of the income-driven demand comes from increases in the stock of specific major appliances, particularly AC units. The other two-thirds comes from non-specific sources of income-driven growth and is based on an estimated income elasticity that falls from 0.28 to 0.11 as income rises. While the stock of refrigerators is not projected to increase, we find that they contribute nearly 20 percent of household electricity demand. Alternative plausible time trend assumptions are responsible for the wide range of 85–143 percent. Meanwhile we estimate a price elasticity of demand of −0.7. These estimates point to carbon pricing and appliance efficiency policies that could substantially reduce demand.
Feifan Shen, Shaojun Huang, Qiuwei Wu, Sami Repo, Yan Xu, and Jacob Østergaard. In Press. “Comprehensive Congestion Management for Distribution Networks based on Dynamic Tariff, Reconfiguration and Re-profiling Product.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.Abstract

This paper proposes a comprehensive scheme for day-ahead congestion management of distribution networks with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). In the proposed scheme, the dynamic tariff (DT), network reconfiguration and re-profiling products are integrated, which combines the advantages of these methods. In addition, the previously proposed DT model is relaxed in order to handle possible infeasibility of the DT problem and set a limit for the DT. With the utilization of the flexibilities from various types of DERs and the advantages of the three congestion management methods, the proposed comprehensive scheme can solve the congestion more effectively and at the same time ensures that the congestion management prices are within an acceptable level. Three case studies were conducted with the modified Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) to validate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed comprehensive scheme.

Xie Yunyun, Chen Xi, Wu Qiuwei, and Zhou Qian. In Press. “Second-Order Conic Programming Model for Load Restoration Considering Uncertainty of Load Increment based on Information Gap Decision Theory.” International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems.Abstract

Load restoration is an important issue for power system restoration after a blackout. A second order conic programming (SOCP) model is proposed based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) to maximize load pickup considering the uncertainty of load increment. Because distribution functions of load increment are difficult to obtain, the optimization of load pickup is transformed to maximize the fluctuation range of load increment by the IGDT. The derived optimal fluctuation range can ensure that the reenergized system is secure, and the amount of load pickup is always better than the specified expectation. Moreover, because the optimization model of the fluctuation range is a mixed-integer nonlinear model which is challenging to solve accurately and efficiently, the nonlinear model is transformed into a SOCP model that can be efficiently solved using CPLEX. The efficiency of the IGDT-based SOCP model is validated using the New England (10-machine 39-bus) system. The simulation results show that the derived load pickup shows expected robustness with respect to the load increment uncertainty.

Chenghe Guan. In Press. “Spatial distribution of high-rise buildings and its relationship to public transit development in Shanghai.” Transport Policy. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The relationship between dense urban development, often represented by high-rise buildings, and its location vis-à-vis metro stations reflects the connection between transportation infrastructure and land use intensity. Existing literature on high-rise buildings has focused either on developed countries or on cities where urban and public transit developments have occurred in an uncoordinated manner. This paper examines the following questions: What is the spatial proximity and spatial correlation between high-rise buildings and metro stations in different stages of development in various parts of the city? What were some of the factors that resulted in the observed patterns? The results suggest that buildings constructed after 2000 and buildings within the urban core/Shanghai Proper districts had a greater spatial proximity to the metro stations. However, the spatial correlation, measured by the number of high-rise buildings within a 500-meter buffer from the nearest metro stations and the time-distance to these stations, is stronger in the outer districts than in the urban core. These differences can be accounted for by Shanghai’s stages of urban development, the existence of metro infrastructure when high-rise development was undertaken, and the city’s land use policies. This case study sheds light on the relationship between high-density developments and metro systems in other large cities in China and other developing countries where rapid urban development coincides with the establishment of a comprehensive public transit system.

Shaojun Huang, Yuanzhang Sun, and Qiuwei Wu. In Press. “Stochastic Economic Dispatch with Wind using Versatile Probability Distribution and L-BFGSB Based Dual Decomposition.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.Abstract
This paper focuses on economic dispatch (ED) in power systems with intermittent wind power, which is a very critical issue in future power systems. A stochastic ED problem is formed based on the recently proposed versatile probability dis-tribution (VPD) of wind power. The problem is then analyzed and proved to be strictly convex. Although such convex optimiza-tion is tractable in many cases, it may take a long time to solve due to its large scale. This paper proposes a dual decomposition method to decompose the large problem. Then two methods are employed to solve the decomposed problem, namely, the subgra-dient method and a faster method, limited-memory BFGS with box constraints (L-BFGS-B, a quasi-Newton method). Case stud-ies were conducted to verify the efficiency of the dual decomposi-tion and L-BFGS-B method for solving the stochastic ED problem.
Benjamin Si Hao Chew, Yan Xu, and Qiuwei Wu. In Press. “Voltage Balancing for Bipolar DC Distribution Grids: A Power Flow based Binary Integer Multi-Objective Optimization Approach.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.Abstract

The re-emergence of 2-phase bipolar DC distribution network, which utilizes the neutral wire for efficient distribution, has spurred research interest in recent years. In practice, system efficiency (power loss) and voltage unbalance are major concerns for the planning and design of the 2-phase DC bipolar network. While most of the existing methodologies are power electronics solutions, there are very few works on resolving the problem from the power system perspective. This paper proposes a model based optimization method by firstly formulating the power flow model for 2-phase DC bipolar network using the single line modeling technique and nodal analysis. Secondly, a binary integer load distribution model is proposed to consider the redistribution of unipolar loads across the two unipolar distribution poles. Together with the power flow model, the system power loss and system voltage unbalance indices are formulated as a binary integer quadratic model. Thirdly, a multi-objective optimization model is formulated and solved using the weighted sum approach. The proposed method is applied to a DC LED lighting system design which considers both voltage unbalance and power loss. Using a 15 bus single source and a 33 bus multi-source network as case studies, the developed power flow model is validated with very high accuracy. Compared to existing iterative methods, the proposed model-based approach is able to significantly improve the voltage balancing across the distribution system.

Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Dale W. Jorgenson, and Chris P. Nielsen. Submitted. “China’s Emissions Trading System and an ETS-Carbon Tax Hybrid.” Energy Economics.
Chenghe Guan, Sumeeta Srinivasan, and Chris P. Nielsen. Submitted. “Does neighborhood form influence low-carbon transportation in China?” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale Jorgenson. Submitted. “Household Consumption in China.” China Economic Review.
Chenghe Guan and Ann Forsyth. Submitted. “The influence of urban form and socio-demographics on active transport: a 40 neighborhoods study in Chengdu, China.” Urban Studies.
Meng Gao, Yihui Ding, Shaojie Song, Xiao Lu, Xinyu Chen, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “Secular decrease of wind power potential in India associated with warming Indian Ocean.” Science Advances.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale W. Jorgenson. Submitted. “Urban Household Consumption in China.” European Economic Review.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, Dale W. Jorgenson, and Qiong Zhang. Submitted. “Welfare and Inequality Measures for China Based on Consumption.” International Economic Review.
Chenghe Guan and Richard B. Peiser. Submitted. “Accessibility, urban form, and property value: Toward a sustainable urban spatial structure.” Journal of Transport and Land Use.
Sumeeta Srinivasan, Chenghe Guan, and Chris P. Nielsen. Submitted. “Built environment, income and travel behavior: Changes in Chengdu 2005-2016.” Sustainable Transport.
Archana Dayalu, J. William Munger, Yuxuan Wang, Steven C. Wofsy, Yu Zhao, Thomas Nehrkorn, Chris P. Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, and Rachel Y.-W. Chang. Submitted. “Carbon dioxide emissions in northern China based on atmospheric observations from 2005 to 2009.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Available in ACPD
Xi Lu, Liang Cao, Haikun Wang, Wei Peng, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Siyi Cai, Bo Shen, Qing Yang, Chris P. Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “Gasification of coal and biomass: a net carbon-negative power source for environmental-friendly electricity generation in China.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
S.J. Song, M. Gao, W.Q. Xu, Y.L. Sun, D.R. Worsnop, J.T. Jayne, Y.Z. Zhang, L. Zhu, M. Li, Z. Zhou, C.L. Cheng, Y.B. Lv, Y. Wang, W. Peng, X.B. Xu, N. Lin, Y.X. Wang, S.X. Wang, J. W. Munger, D. Jacob, and M.B. McElroy. Submitted. “Hydroxymethanesulfonate in northern China winter haze aerosols and implications for rapid sulfate production.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Xueli Zhao, Rong Ma, Xiaofang Wu, Chenghe Guan, Chris P. Nielsen, and Bo Zhang. Submitted. “Linking Agricultural GHG Emissions to Global Trade Network.” Environmental Science & Technology.
Xingning Han, Xinyu Chen, Michael B. McElroy, Shiwu Liao, and Chris P. Nielsen. Submitted. “Modeling Formulation and Validation for Accelerated Simulation and Flexibility Assessment on Large Scale Power Systems under Higher Renewable Penetrations.” Applied Energy.