In Press
Jing Cao, Mun Sing Ho, Yating Li, Richard G. Newell, and William A. Pizer. In Press. “Chinese residential electricity consumption estimation and forecast using micro-data.” Resource and Energy Economics. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Based on econometric estimation using data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey, we develop a preferred forecast range of 85–143 percent growth in residential per capita electricity demand over 2009–2025. Our analysis suggests that per capita income growth drives a 43% increase, with the remainder due to an unexplained time trend. Roughly one-third of the income-driven demand comes from increases in the stock of specific major appliances, particularly AC units. The other two-thirds comes from non-specific sources of income-driven growth and is based on an estimated income elasticity that falls from 0.28 to 0.11 as income rises. While the stock of refrigerators is not projected to increase, we find that they contribute nearly 20 percent of household electricity demand. Alternative plausible time trend assumptions are responsible for the wide range of 85–143 percent. Meanwhile we estimate a price elasticity of demand of −0.7. These estimates point to carbon pricing and appliance efficiency policies that could substantially reduce demand.
Qing Yang, Ji Liang, Jiashuo Li, Haiping Yang, and Hanping Chen. In Press. “Life cycle water use of a biomass-based pyrolysis polygeneration system in China.” Applied Energy.Abstract

Water is essential for bioenergy production. Characterized as low carbon technology, crop-based bioenergy technology witnesses rapid development, inevitably putting pressure on global water resources. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully assess bioenergy technology’s overall impact on scarce water source for a sustainable bioenergy future. In this regard, this study aims to evaluate the life cycle water use of bioenergy from agricultural residues via the first pilot moving-bed pyrolysis polygeneration system in China. By using a tiered hybrid life cycle assessment, both direct and indirect water use are calculated. Results show life cycle water use is 3.89 L H2O/MJ and agricultural process dominates the total water use. Scenarios analysis shows different feedstock allocation ratios during agricultural production have striking influence on water use intensity. In addition, the choice of feedstock is another important influential factor. Under the 2020 Scenario in China’s 13th Five Year Plan, if all the bioenergy target could be met by polygeneration the estimated annual water use will be 6.6 billion m3, in magnitude up to around ten times the total water consumption in Denmark in 2013. In global scenario of potential feedstock available in 2060, the estimated water use for bioenergy produced by polygeneration will be 179-369 billion m3. Although the water use intensity of bioenergy production from agricultural residues by polygeneration is lower than that for other biomass conversion pathways, it is still higher than water intensity of conventional fossil energy products. Large-scale bioenergy production will have macroscopic effects on water demand. Finally, suggestions such as selecting high water-efficient biomass feedstock and reinforcing water-saving irrigation management to minimize water use in agriculture stage are proposed.

Xinyu Chen, Jiajun Lv, Michael B. McElroy, Xingning Han, Chris Nielsen, and Jinyu Wen. In Press. “Power system capacity expansion under higher penetration of renewables considering flexibility constraints and low carbon policies.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
Shaojun Huang, Yuanzhang Sun, and Qiuwei Wu. In Press. “Stochastic Economic Dispatch with Wind using Versatile Probability Distribution and L-BFGSB Based Dual Decomposition.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.Abstract
This paper focuses on economic dispatch (ED) in power systems with intermittent wind power, which is a very critical issue in future power systems. A stochastic ED problem is formed based on the recently proposed versatile probability dis-tribution (VPD) of wind power. The problem is then analyzed and proved to be strictly convex. Although such convex optimiza-tion is tractable in many cases, it may take a long time to solve due to its large scale. This paper proposes a dual decomposition method to decompose the large problem. Then two methods are employed to solve the decomposed problem, namely, the subgra-dient method and a faster method, limited-memory BFGS with box constraints (L-BFGS-B, a quasi-Newton method). Case stud-ies were conducted to verify the efficiency of the dual decomposi-tion and L-BFGS-B method for solving the stochastic ED problem.
Chenghe Guan. In Press. “Urban form and digitalization of urban design.” Urban Planning International.
Archana Dayalu, J. William Munger, Yuxuan Wang, Steven C. Wofsy, Yu Zhao, Thomas Nehrkorn, Chris P. Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, and Rachel Y.-W. Chang. Submitted. “Carbon dioxide emissions in northern China based on atmospheric observations from 2005 to 2009.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, and Govinda R. Timilsina. Submitted. “Carbon Tax for Achieving China's NDC: Simulations of Some Design Features Using a CGE Model.” Climate Change Economics.
Xi Lu, Liang Cao, Haikun Wang, Wei Peng, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Siyi Cai, Bo Shen, Qing Yang, Chris P. Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “Gasification of coal and biomass: a net negative-carbon power source for environmental friendly electricity generation in China.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Meng Gao, Yihui Ding, Shaojie Song, Xiao Lu, Xinyu Chen, and Michael B. McElroy. Submitted. “Secular decrease of wind power potential in India associated with warming Indian Ocean.” Science Advances.
Jing Cao, Mun S. Ho, Wenhao Hu, and Dale W. Jorgenson. Submitted. “Urban Household Consumption in China.” Review of Economics and Statistics.
Chenghe Guan and Richard B. Peiser. Submitted. “Accessibility, urban form, and property value: Toward a sustainable urban spatial structure.” Journal of Transport and Land Use.
Sumeeta Srinivasan and Chenghe Guan. Submitted. “Built environment, income and travel behavior: Changes in Chengdu 2005-2016.” Journal of Transport Geography.
Xueli Zhao, Xiaofang Wu, Chenghe Guan, Chris P. Nielsen, and Bo Zhang. Submitted. “Drivers of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions across the world.” Environmental Research Letters.
Xingning Han, Xinyu Chen, Michael B. McElroy, Shiwu Liao, and Chris P. Nielsen. Submitted. “Modeling Formulation and Validation for Accelerated Simulation and Flexibility Assessment on Large Scale Power Systems under Higher Renewable Penetrations.” Applied Energy.
X.D. Wu, Q. Yang, G.Q. Chen, T. Hayat, and A. Alsaedi. Submitted. “Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2x600 MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.
Qing Yang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Hewen Zhou, Chris P Nielsen, Jiashuo Li, Xi Lu, Haiping Yang, and Hanping Chen. Submitted. “A system analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a biomass gasification power plant in China.” Journal of Cleaner Production.
Archana Dayalu, William Munger, Steven Wofsy, Yuxuan Wang, Thomas Nehrkorn, Yu Zhao, Michael McElroy, Chris Nielsen, and Kristina Luus. Submitted. “VPRM-CHINA: Using the Vegetation, Photosynthesis, and Respiration Model to partition contributions to CO2 measurements in Northern China during the 2005-2009 growing seasons.” Biogeosciences. Publisher's Version
Bo Zhang, Shihui Guan, Xiaofang Wu, and Xueli Zhao. 2018. “Tracing natural resource uses via China's supply chains.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 196, Pp. 880-888. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper makes an in-depth analysis on demand-driven natural resource requirements in China via the methods of thermodynamic input-output analysis and structural path analysis, in order to reveal the connections between the country's rapid economic development and its intensive use of natural resources. The main natural resources investigated include crops, forestry, rangeland, aquatic products, coal, crude oil & natural gas, ferrous metal ores, nonferrous metal ores, nonmetallic minerals and other primary energy, and exergy is adopted as a common metric for the resource accounting. In 2012, the total domestic resource exergy input into Chinese economic system amounted to 130.1 EJ, of which 44.6% was induced by investment demands. The embodied resource use (ERU) in China's exports was equivalent to over one fifth of its domestic resource supply. The two integrative sectors of Manufacturing and Construction accounted for 44.1% and 28.7% of the national total ERU, respectively. We identified critical supply chain paths starting from resource extraction to final demand, as well as key industrial sectors in driving the extraction, transmission and final use of embodied resources. The top 50 paths were responsible for 30.4 EJ of the ERU. The identification of resource supply chains from a systemic perspective is of great importance when resource and environmental policies are to be applied to concrete industrial sectors and other economic agents. Integrated approaches that take account of consumption-based resource indicators should be developed for resource conservation and cleaner production, particularly for the economic system with a complex supply network.
Zhaoxi Liu, Qiuwei Wu, Kang Ma, Mohammad Shahidehpour, Yusheng Xue, and Shaojun Huang. 2018. “Two-Stage Optimal Scheduling of Electric Vehicle Charging Based on Transactive Control.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, PP, 99. Publisher's VersionAbstract
In this paper, a two-stage optimal charging scheme based on transactive control is proposed for the aggregator to manage day-ahead electricity procurement and real-time EV charging management in order to minimize its total operating cost. The day-ahead electricity procurement considers both the day-ahead energy cost and expected real-time operation cost. In the real-time charging management, the cost of employing the charging flexibility from the EV owners is explicitly modelled. The aggregator uses a transactive market to manage the real-time charging demand to provide the regulating power. A model predictive control (MPC) based method is proposed for the aggregator to clear the transactive market. The real-time charging decisions of the EVs are determined by the clearing of the proposed transactive market according to the real-time requests and preferences of the EV owners. As such, the aggregatorb's decisions in the real-time EV charging management and regulating power markets can be optimized. At the same time, the charging requirements and response preferences of the EV owners are respected. Case studies using real world driving data from the Danish National Travel Surveys were conducted to verify the proposed framework.
Xinyu Chen, Junling Huang, Qing Yang, Chris P. Nielsen, Dongbo Shi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2018. “Changing carbon content of Chinese coal and implications for emissions of CO2.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 194, Pp. 150-157. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The changing carbon content of coal consumed in China between 2002 and 2012 is quantified using information from the power sector. The carbon content decreased by 7.7% over this interval, the decrease particularly pronounced between 2007 and 2009. Inferences with respect to the changing carbon content of coal and the oxidation rate for its consumption, combined with the recent information on coal use in China, are employed to evaluate the trend in emissions of CO2. Emissions are estimated to have increased by 158% between 2002 and 2012, from 3.9 Gt y-1 to 9.2 Gt y-1. Our estimated emissions for 2005 are notably consistent with data reported by China in its “Second National Communication” to the UN (NDRC, 2012) and significantly higher than the estimation published recently in Nature. The difference is attributed, among other factors, to the assumption of a constant carbon content of coal in the latter study. The results indicate that CO2 emissions of China in 2005 reported by Second National Communication are more reliable to serve as the baseline for China's future carbon commitments (e.g. those in Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC). Discrepancies between national and provincial statistics on coal production and consumption are investigated and attributed primarily to anomalous reporting on interprovincial trade in four heavily industrialized provinces.

Changing carbon content paper.pdf