# Publications

2013
Yu Zhao, Jie Zhang, and Chris P Nielsen. 2013. “The effects of recent control policies on trends in emissions of anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants and CO2 in China.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, Pp. 487-508. Publisher's VersionAbstract

To examine the effects of China’s national policies of energy conservation and emission control during 2005–2010, inter-annual emission trends of gaseous pollutants, primary aerosols, and CO2 are estimated with a bottom-up framework. The control measures led to improved energy efficiency and/or increased penetration of emission control devices at power plants and other important industrial sources, yielding reduced emission factors for all evaluated species except NOx. The national emissions of anthropogenic SO2, CO, and total primary PM (particulate matter) in 2010 are estimated to have been 89%, 108%, and 87% of those in 2005, respectively, suggesting successful emission control of those species despite fast growth of the economy and energy consumption during the period. The emissions of NOx and CO2, however, are estimated to have increased by 47% and 43%, respectively, indicating that they remain largely determined by the growth of energy use, industrial production, and vehicle populations. Based on application of a Monte-Carlo framework, estimated uncertainties of SO2 and PM emissions increased from 2005 to 2010, resulting mainly from poorly understood average SO2 removal efficiency in flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems in the power sector, and unclear changes in the penetration levels of dust collectors at industrial sources, respectively. While emission trends determined by bottom-up methods can be generally verified by observations from both ground stations and satellites, clear discrepancies exist for given regions and seasons, indicating a need for more accurate spatial and time distributions of emissions. Limitations of current emission control polices are analyzed based on the estimated emission trends. Compared with control of total PM, there are fewer gains in control of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols, the PM components most responsible for damages to public health and effects on radiative forcing. A much faster decrease of alkaline base cations in primary PM than that of SO2 may have raised the acidification risks to ecosystems, indicating further control of acid precursors is required. Moreover, with relatively strict controls in developed urban areas, air pollution challenges have been expanding to less-developed neighboring regions. There is a great need in the future for multipollutant control strategies that combine recognition of diverse environmental impacts both in urban and rural areas with emission abatement of multiple species in concert. To examine the effects of China’s national policies of energy conservation and emission control during 2005–2010, inter-annual emission trends of gaseous pollutants, primary aerosols, and CO2 are estimated with a bottom-up framework. The control measures led to improved energy efficiency and/or increased penetration of emission control devices at power plants and other important industrial sources, yielding reduced emission factors for all evaluated species except NOx. The national emissions of anthropogenic SO2, CO, and total primary PM (particulate matter) in 2010 are estimated to have been 89%, 108%, and 87% of those in 2005, respectively, suggesting successful emission control of those species despite fast growth of the economy and energy consumption during the period. The emissions of NOx and CO2, however, are estimated to have increased by 47% and 43%, respectively, indicating that they remain largely determined by the growth of energy use, industrial production, and vehicle populations. Based on application of a Monte-Carlo framework, estimated uncertainties of SO2 and PM emissions increased from 2005 to 2010, resulting mainly from poorly understood average SO2 removal efficiency in flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems in the power sector, and unclear changes in the penetration levels of dust collectors at industrial sources, respectively. While emission trends determined by bottom-up methods can be generally verified by observations from both ground stations and satellites, clear discrepancies exist for given regions and seasons, indicating a need for more accurate spatial and time distributions of emissions. Limitations of current emission control polices are analyzed based on the estimated emission trends. Compared with control of total PM, there are fewer gains in control of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols, the PM components most responsible for damages to public health and effects on radiative forcing. A much faster decrease of alkaline base cations in primary PM than that of SO2 may have raised the acidification risks to ecosystems, indicating further control of acid precursors is required. Moreover, with relatively strict controls in developed urban areas, air pollution challenges have been expanding to less-developed neighboring regions. There is a great need in the future for multipollutant control strategies that combine recognition of diverse environmental impacts both in urban and rural areas with emission abatement of multiple species in concert.

Chris P Nielsen and Mun S Ho. 2013. “Op-ed: Clearing the air in China.” New York Times (Sunday Review), October 27 , Pp. SR4. Publisher's Version
Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, Chris P Nielsen, Xinyu Chen, and Junling Huang. 2013. “Optimal integration of offshore wind power for a steadier, environmentally friendlier, supply of electricity in China.” Energy Policy, 62, Pp. 131–138. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Demand for electricity in China is concentrated to a significant extent in its coastal provinces. Opportunities for production of electricity by on-shore wind facilities are greatest, however, in the north and west of the country. Using high resolution wind data derived from the GEOS-5 assimilation, this study shows that investments in off-shore wind facilities in these spatially separated regions (Bohai-Bay or BHB, Yangtze-River Delta or YRD, Pearl-River Delta or PRD) could make an important contribution to overall regional demand for electricity in coastal China. An optimization analysis indicates that hour-to-hour variability of outputs from a combined system can be minimized by investing 24% of the power capacity in BHB, 30% in YRD and 47% in PRD. The analysis suggests that about 28% of the overall off-shore wind potential could be deployed as base load power replacing coal-fired system with benefits not only in terms of reductions in CO2 emissions but also in terms of improvements in regional air quality. The interconnection of off-shore wind resources contemplated here could be facilitated by China's 12th-five-year plan to strengthen inter-connections between regional electric-power grids.

Yu Zhao. 2013. “Primary Air Pollutant Emissions of Coal-Fired Power Plants in China.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 161-202. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment.

China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than $4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards. This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth. Yu Lei, Qiang Zhang, Chris P Nielsen, and Kebin He. 2013. “Primary Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions from Cement Production in China.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 203-224. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment. China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than$4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards.

This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth.

Chris P Nielsen, Mun S Ho, Jing Cao, Yu Lei, Yuxuan Wang, and Yu Zhao. 2013. “Summary: Carbon Taxes for 2013-2020.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 103-157. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment.

China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than $4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards. This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth. Chris P Nielsen, Mun S Ho, Yu Zhao, Yuxuan Wang, Yu Lei, and Jing Cao. 2013. “Summary: Sulfur Mandates and Carbon Taxes for 2006-2010.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 59-102. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment. China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than$4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards.

This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth.

Xuan Wang, Yuxuan Wang, Jiming Hao, Yutaka Kondo, Martin Irwin, J. William Munger, and Yongjing Zhao. 2013. “Top-down estimate of China's black carbon emissions using surface observations: Sensitivity to observation representativeness and transport model error.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 11, Pp. 5781-5795. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This study examines the sensitivity of “top-down” quantification of Chinese black carbon (BC) emissions to the temporal resolution of surface observations and to the transport model error associated with the grid resolution and wet deposition. At two rural sites (Miyun in North China Plain and Chongming in Yangtze River Delta), the model-inferred emission bias based on hourly BC observations can differ by up to 41% from that based on monthly mean observations. This difference relates to the intrinsic inability of the grid-based model in simulating high pollution plumes, which often exert a larger influence on the arithmetic mean of observations at monthly time steps. Adopting the variation of BC to carbon monoxide correlation slope with precipitation as a suitable measure to evaluate the model's wet deposition, we found that wet removal of BC in the model was too weak, due in part to the model's underestimation of large precipitation events. After filtering out the observations during high pollution plumes and large precipitation events for which the transport model error should not be translated into the emission error, the inferred emission bias changed from −11% (without filtering) to −2% (with filtering) at the Miyun site, and from −22% to +1% at the Chongming site. Using surface BC observations from three more rural sites (located in Northeast, Central, and Central South China, respectively) as constraints, our top-down estimate of total BC emissions over China was 1.80 ± 0.65 Tg/yr in 2006, 0.5% lower than the bottom-up inventory of Zhang et al. (2009) but with smaller uncertainty.

Tao Song, Jianming Cai, Teresa Chahine, and Yu Deng. 2013. “Urban metabolism model based on the emergy theory: A case study of 31 Chinese cities.” Food, Agriculture and Environment, 11, 3&4, Pp. 2353-2361. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Urban systems, with the overall fluxes of energy, water, material, and wastes, can be modeled with a range of metabolic processes. To quantify the urban metabolism, we use the “emergy” assessment method (all materials and energy are transformed to solar energy equivalents) and then present a group of urban metabolic indicators, which quantify urban metabolic balance, capacity, and outputs to assess a city’s metabolic efficiencies. In this paper, we use 31 Chinese cities as a sample to illustrate how the model can be operated to evaluate the urban metabolism by emergy analysis. Our results indicate that metropolises and coastal cities were more metabolically efficient with higher metabolic balance, capacities, and outputs; but with more external dependency on imported resources. Central and western cities had lower metabolic efficiencies, with a high ratio of non-renewable emergy reliance. Policy implications highlight the need for renewable energy sources and improved management of imported services, goods, and fuels to achieve higher urban resilience and sustainability.

2012
Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, Gang Wu, and Chris P Nielsen. 2012. “Accelerated reduction of SO2 emissions from the US power sector triggered by changing prices of natural gas.” Environmental Science and Technology, 46, 14, Pp. 7882-7889. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the U.S. power sector decreased by 24% in 2009 relative to 2008. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach was applied to isolate the factors responsible for this decrease. It is concluded that 15% of the decrease can be attributed to the drop in demand for electricity triggered by the economic recession, and 28% can be attributed to switching of fuel from coal to gas responding to the decrease in prices for the latter. The largest factor in the decrease, close to 57%, resulted from an overall decline in emissions per unit of power generated from coal. This is attributed in part to selective idling of older, less efficient coal plants that generally do not incorporate technology for sulfur removal, and in part to continued investments by the power sector in removal equipment in response to the requirements limiting emissions imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). The paper argues further that imposition of a modest tax on emissions of carbon would have ancillary benefits in terms of emissions of SO2.

Final Manuscript in DASH
This paper is from a series investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.

Yu Zhao, Chris P Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2012. “China's CO2 emissions estimated from the bottom up: Recent trends, spatial distributions, and quantification of uncertainties.” Atmospheric Environment, 59, Pp. 214-223. Publisher's VersionAbstract
China's emissions of anthropogenic CO2 are estimated using a bottom-up emission inventory framework based on a detailed categorization of economic sectors and provincial economic and energy data. It includes a newly compiled database of CO2 emission factors employing the latest field study results from China. Total annual emissions are estimated to have risen from 7126 to 9370 Mt CO2 from 2005 to 2009. Recent policies to conserve energy and reduce emissions have been effective in limiting CO2 emissions from power and iron & steel plants, but have had little effect on those from cement production. The uncertainties of China's CO2 emissions are quantified for the first time using Monte-Carlo simulation, producing a 95% confidence interval (CI) of −9% to +11% for total emissions in 2005. The largest contributors to sector-level emission uncertainty are emission factors for most industrial sources and activity levels for power plants, transportation, and residential & commercial sources. Application of province-level energy consumption and China-specific emission factors in some sectors results in higher annual emission estimates for 2005-2008 as compared with other studies, although most of those are within the 95% CIs of this study.
Yu Zhao, Chris P Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, Lin Zhang, and Jie Zhang. 2012. “CO emissions in China: Uncertainties and implications of improved energy efficiency and emission control.” Atmospheric Environment, 49, Pp. 103-113. Publisher's VersionAbstract
A bottom-up methodology and an improved database of emission factors combining the latest domestic field measurements are developed to estimate the emissions of anthropogenic CO from China at national and provincial levels. The CO emission factors for major economic sectors declined to varying degrees from 2005 to 2009, attributed to improved energy efficiency and/or emission control regulations. Total national CO emissions are estimated at 173 Tg for 2005 and have been relatively stable for subsequent years, despite fast growth of energy consumption and industrial production. While industry and transportation sources dominated CO emissions in developed eastern and north-central China, residential combustion played a much greater role in the less developed western provinces. The uncertainties of national Chinese CO emissions are quantified using Monte Carlo simulation at −20% to +45% (95% confidence interval). Due to poor understanding of emission factors and activity levels for combustion of solid fuels, the largest uncertainties are found for emissions from the residential sector. The trends of bottom-up emissions compare reasonably to satellite observation of CO columns and to ground observations of CO2–CO correlation slopes. The increase in the ratio for emissions of CO2 relative to CO suggests that China has successfully improved combustion efficiencies across its economy in recent years, consistent with national policies to improve energy efficiency and to control criteria air pollutants.
Junling Huang and Michael B. McElroy. 2012. “The contemporary and historical budget of atmospheric CO2.” Canadian Journal of Physics, 90, 8, Pp. 707-716. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Observations of CO2 and O2 are interpreted to develop an understanding of the changes in the abundance of atmospheric CO2 that have arisen over the period 1995–2007. Fossil fuels accounted for an addition of 89.3 Gt of carbon to the atmosphere over this time period, 29% of which was transferred to the ocean, 15% to the global biosphere, with the balance (57%) retained by the atmosphere. Analysis of historical data for CO2 derived from studies of gases trapped in ice at Law Dome in Antarctica indicate that the biosphere represented a net source of atmospheric CO2 prior to 1940, switching subsequently to a net sink.
Gang Wu, Yi-Ming Wei, Chris P Nielsen, Xi Lu, and Michael B. McElroy. 2012. “A dynamic programming model of China's strategic petroleum reserve: General strategy and the effect of emergencies.” Energy Economics, 34, 4, Pp. 1234-1243. Publisher's VersionAbstract
To protect the security of energy supply, China is building national strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). We present a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies for China's SPR under various scenarios, focusing on minimizing the total cost of reserves. In contrast to previous research, the oil price given in our model is exogenous on a monthly instead of annual basis, with a view to more realistic simulation of optimal strategies each year. Our model results show that in the case where stockpiling affects oil prices, a given SPR size will be achieved earlier than when stockpiling does not affect oil prices. In different emergency conditions, the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies of China's SPR are very different. When an emergency occurs, the shock of stockpiling on the oil price per barrel could range $0.49–$6.35, while the impact of drawdown on the oil price per barrel could range −$6.22 to −$0.48.
Xi Lu, Jackson Salovaara, and Michael B. McElroy. 2012. “Implications of the recent reductions in natural gas prices for emissions of CO2 from the US power sector.” Environmental Science & Technology, 46, 5, Pp. 3014–3021. Publisher's VersionAbstract
CO2 emissions from the US power sector decreased by 8.76% in 2009 relative to 2008 contributing to a decrease over this period of 6.59% in overall US emissions of greenhouse gases. An econometric model, tuned to data reported for regional generation of US electricity, is used to diagnose factors responsible for the 2009 decrease. More than half of the reduction is attributed to a shift from generation of power using coal to gas driven by a recent decrease in gas prices in response to the increase in production from shale. An important result of the model is that, when the cost differential for generation using gas rather than coal falls below 2–3 cents/kWh, less efficient coal fired plants are displaced by more efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation alternatives. Costs for generation using NGCC decreased by close to 4 cents/kWh in 2009 relative to 2008 ensuring that generation of electricity using gas was competitive with coal in 2009 in contrast to the situation in 2008 when gas prices were much higher. A modest price on carbon could contribute to additional switching from coal to gas with further savings in CO2 emissions.

Final Manuscript in DASH
This paper is from a series investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.; click here (http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/02/model-situation/) to see coverage in the Harvard Gazette.

Jing Cao, Mun S Ho, and Dale W Jorgenson. 2012. “An integrated assessment of the economic costs and environmental benefits of pollution and climate control.” In The Chinese Economy: A New Transition, edited by Masahiko Aoki. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Publisher's Version
2011
Rui Wang. 2011. “Autos, transit and bicycles: Comparing the costs in large Chinese cities.” Transport Policy, 18, 1, Pp. 139-146. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This study compares the full costs of seven passenger modes in the large Chinese cities facing the difficult yet crucial choice among alternative passenger transportation systems. The seven modes are evaluated at varied traffic volumes in hypothetical radial and circumferential commuting corridors. Using detailed estimates of private and social costs, the full cost of each mode is minimized by optimizing infrastructure investment and operation plans. On all corridors and across different scenarios, commuting by one or more forms of bus transit or bicycle costs less than automobile or rail. Nonetheless, in circumferential corridors, rail can be almost as cost-effective as bus under certain conditions, and bicycle can be less cost-effective than bus in some cases. Unlike results from similar studies conducted in the US, automobile commuting does not cost less than bus transportation at low traffic volumes.
Yuxuan Wang, Xuan Wang, Yutaka Kondo, Mizuo Kajino, J. William Munger, and Jiming Hao. 2011. “Black carbon and its correlation with trace gases at a rural site in Beijing: implications for regional emissions.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D24. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) were measured continuously at Miyun, a rural site near Beijing, concurrently with some trace gases (CO, CO2, NOy, SO2) during the nonheating seasons of 2010 (April to October). The average concentration of BC was 2.26 ± 2.33 μg m−3. About 70%–100% of the air masses arriving at the site from June to September were from the source region of Beijing and the North China Plain (NCP), while in the spring, 40% were of continental background origin. BC had moderate to strong positive correlations with CO (R2 = 0.51), NOy (R2 = 0.58), and CO2 (nonsummer, R2 = 0.54), but not with SO2 (R2 < 0.1). The observed ΔBC/ΔCO ratio was 0.0050 ± 0.0001 μg m−3/ppbv for the regional air masses (excluding the influence of biomass burning). This ratio increased by 68% to 0.0084 ± 0.0004 μg m−3/ppbv after excluding the influence of wet deposition. Accounting further for the impact of atmospheric processes on the observation, we derived an average top‐down BC/CO emission ratio of 0.0095 ± 0.002 μg m−3/ppbv for the source region of Beijing and NCP that is 18%–21% lower than the average emission ratio from the bottom‐up inventory of Zhang et al. (2009), whereas the difference is substantially lower than the uncertainty of emissions for either species. The difference between the mean bottom‐up and top‐down emission ratios is most likely to be attributed to the residential sector, which needs to have a lower share in the total emissions of BC or a much lower BC/CO emission ratio. The industry and transportation sectors are found to be dominant sources of BC from Beijing and the NCP rather than from the residential sector as suggested by the bottom‐up inventory.
Xi Lu, Michael B. McElroy, and Nora Sluzas. 2011. “Costs for integrating wind into the future ERCOT system with related costs for savings in CO2 emissions.” Environmental Science and Technology, 45, 7, Pp. 3160-3166. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Wind power can make an important contribution to the goal of reducing emissions of CO2. The major problem relates to the intrinsic variability of the source and the difficulty of reconciling the supply of electricity with demand particularly at high levels of wind penetration. This challenge is explored for the case of the ERCOT system in Texas. Demand for electricity in Texas is projected to increase by approximately 60% by 2030. Considering hourly load data reported for 2006, assuming that the pattern of demand in 2030 should be similar to 2006, and adopting as a business as usual (BAU) reference an assumption that the anticipated additional electricity should be supplied by a combination of coal and gas with prices, discounted to 2007 dollars of $2 and$6 per MMBTU respectively, we conclude that the bus-bar price for electricity would increase by about 1.1¢/kWh at a wind penetration level of 30%, by about 3.4 ¢/kWh at a penetration level of 80%. Corresponding costs for reductions in CO2 range from $20/ton to$60/ton. A number of possibilities are discussed that could contribute to a reduction in these costs including the impact of an expanded future fleet of electrically driven vehicles.

Final Manuscript in DASH
This is from a series of papers investigating and comparing the prospects for low- and non-carbon power generation in China and the U.S.

Jintai Lin and Michael B. McElroy. 2011. “Detection from space of a reduction in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides during the Chinese economic downturn.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, Pp. 8171-8188. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Rapid economic and industrial development in
China and relatively weak emission controls have resulted in
significant increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
in recent years, with the exception of late 2008 to mid 2009
when the economic downturn led to emission reductions detectable
from space. Here vertical column densities (VCDs)
SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI (both by KNMI and by
NASA) are used to evaluate changes in emissions of NOx
from October 2004 to February 2010 identifying impacts of
the economic downturn. Data over polluted regions of Northern
East China suggest an increase of 27–33% in 12-month
mean VCD of NO2 prior to the downturn, consistent with an
increase of 49% in thermal power generation (TPG) reflecting
the economic growth. More detailed analysis is used to
quantify changes in emissions of NOx in January over the
period 2005–2010 when the effect of the downturn was most
evident. The GEOS-Chem model is employed to evaluate
the effect of changes in chemistry and meteorology on VCD
of NO2. This analysis indicates that emissions decreased by
20% from January 2008 to January 2009, close to the reduction
of 18% in TPG that occurred over the same interval. A
combination of three independent approaches indicates that
the economic downturn was responsible for a reduction in
emissions by 9–11% in January 2009 with an additional decrease
of 10%attributed to the slow-down in industrial activity
associated with the coincident celebration of the Chinese
New Year; errors in the estimate are most likely less than
3.4 %.