Richard Garbaccio, Mun S Ho, and Dale W Jorgenson. 1999. “
Controlling carbon emissions in China.” Environment and Development Economics, 4, 4, Pp. 493-518.
Publisher's VersionAbstractWe examine the use of carbon taxes to reduce emissions of CO2 in China. To do so, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. In addition to accounting for the effects of population growth, capital accumulation, technological change, and changing patterns of demand, we also incorporate into our model elements of the dual nature of China's economy where both plan and market institutions exist side by side. We conduct simulations in which carbon emissions are reduced by 5, 10, and 15 per cent from our baseline. After initial declines, in all of our simulations GDP and consumption rapidly exceed baseline levels as the revenue neutral carbon tax serves to transfer income from consumers to producers and then into increased investment. Although subject to a number of caveats, we find potential for what is in some sense a 'double dividend', a decrease in emissions of CO2 and a long run increase in GDP and consumption.
Richard Garbaccio, Mun S Ho, and Dale W Jorgenson. 1999. “
Why has the energy output ratio fallen in China?” Energy Journal, 20, 3, Pp. 63-91.
Publisher's VersionAbstractIn China, between 1978 and 1995, energy use per unit of GDP fell by 55 percent. There has been considerable debate about the major factors responsible for this dramatic decline in the energy-output ratio. In this paper we use the two most recent input-output tables to decompose the reduction in energy use into technical change and various types of structural change, including changes in the quantity and composition of imports and exports. In performing our analysis we are forced to deal with a number of problems with the relevant Chinese data and introduce some simple adjustments to improve the consistency of the input-output tables. Our main conclusion is that between 1987 and 1992, technical change within sectors accounted for most of the fall in the energyoutput ratio. Structural change actually increased the use of energy. An increase in the import of some energy-intensive products also contributed to the decline in energy intensity.