1999

We examine the use of carbon taxes to reduce emissions of CO2 in China. To do so, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. In addition to accounting for the effects of population growth, capital accumulation, technological change, and changing patterns of demand, we also incorporate into our model elements of the dual nature of China's economy where both plan and market institutions exist side by side. We conduct simulations in which carbon emissions are reduced by 5, 10, and 15 per cent from our baseline. After initial declines, in all of our simulations GDP and consumption rapidly exceed baseline levels as the revenue neutral carbon tax serves to transfer income from consumers to producers and then into increased investment. Although subject to a number of caveats, we find potential for what is in some sense a 'double dividend', a decrease in emissions of CO2 and a long run increase in GDP and consumption.

Chongquing is one of the most polluted cities in China. To study the respiratory health effects of air pollution for this city, the authors monitored the ambient levels of particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) in urban and suburban areas and performed pulmonary function testing on 1,075 adults 35 to 60 years of age who had never smoked and did not use coal stoves for cooking or heating. The mean concentration of SO2 in the urban areas (213 micrograms/m3) was twice as high as that in suburban areas (103 micrograms/m3). Mean PM2.5 levels were high in both urban (143 micrograms/m3) and suburban (139 micrograms/m3) areas. A generalized additive model was used to estimate the differences between the two areas in FEV1, FVC, and FEV1/FVC%, with adjustment for potential confounding factors, including sex, age, height, education, passive smoking, and occupational exposures to dust, gas, or fumes. Estimated differences in FEV1 between the urban and suburban areas were 199 mL (SE = 50 mL) for men and 87 mL (SE = 30 mL) for women, both statistically significant. When the men and women were pooled, the estimated difference in FEV1 was 126 mL (SE = 27 mL). Similar trends were observed for FVC and FEV1/FVC%. After exclusion of 104 subjects with histories of occupational exposures to dust, gas, or fumes, the estimated difference was some-what smaller than that of the total samples. However, the effects on FEV1 and FEV1/FVC% remained significant for both men and women.

In China, between 1978 and 1995, energy use per unit of GDP fell by 55 percent. There has been considerable debate about the major factors responsible for this dramatic decline in the energy-output ratio. In this paper we use the two most recent input-output tables to decompose the reduction in energy use into technical change and various types of structural change, including changes in the quantity and composition of imports and exports. In performing our analysis we are forced to deal with a number of problems with the relevant Chinese data and introduce some simple adjustments to improve the consistency of the input-output tables. Our main conclusion is that between 1987 and 1992, technical change within sectors accounted for most of the fall in the energyoutput ratio. Structural change actually increased the use of energy. An increase in the import of some energy-intensive products also contributed to the decline in energy intensity.