2000

The authors analyzed daily mortality data in Shenyang, China, for calendar year 1992 to identify possible associations with ambient sulfur dioxide and total suspended particulates. Both total suspended particulate concentrations (mean = 430 μmlg/m³, maximum = 1,141 μmlg/m³) and sulfur dioxide concentrations (mean 197 = μmlg/m³, maximum = 659 μmlg/m³) far exceeded the World Health Organization's recommended criteria. An average of 45.5 persons died each day. The lagged moving averages of air-pollution levels, calculated as the mean of the nonmissing air-pollution levels of the concurrent and 3 preceding days, were used for all analyses. Locally weighted regression analysis, including temperature, humidity, day of week, and a time variable, showed a positive association between daily mortality and both total suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide. When the authors included total suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide separately in the model, both were highly significant predictors of daily mortality. The risk of all-cause mortality increased by an estimated 1.7% and 2.4% with a 100-μmlg/m³ concomitant increase in total suspended particulate and sulfur dioxide, respectively. When the authors analyzed mortality separately by cause of death, the association with total suspended particulates was significant for cardiovascular disease (2.1%), but not statistically significant for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (2.6%). In contrast, the association with sulfur dioxide was significant for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (7.4%), but not for cardiovascular disease (1.8%). The mortality from cancer was not associated significantly with total suspended particles or with sulfur dioxide. The correlation between sulfur dioxide and total suspended particulates was high (correlation coefficient = .66). When the authors included sulfur dioxide and total suspended particulates simultaneously in the model, the association between total suspended particulates and mortality from all causes and cardiovascular diseases remained significant. Sulfur dioxide was associated significantly with increased mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and other causes. The results of the current study reveal increased mortality associated with both total suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide.

The results from a non-linear optimization model for China's electric power system are presented. The model determines the optimal capacity-expansion path of the power sector by calculating the least-cost investment strategy for the required additional capacity to meet the predicted electricity demand and environmental goals. It is suggested that it will be difficult and expensive to reduce 2010 carbon emissions from the Chinese power sector since it necessitates a switch from traditional clean coal technologies (CCTs) to more advanced CCTs. In addition, the potential for carbon trading with developed countries and the sector of the Chinese economy appears weak.