2003

This paper assesses the role played by market reforms in shaping the future level and composition of production, energy use, and carbon emissions in China. Arguments have been made that reducing distortions in China's economy through market reforms will lead to energy efficiency improvements and lower carbon emissions in China. However, these arguments are based on partial and not general equilibrium analyses, and therefore overlook the effects of market reforms on economic growth and structural change. The results suggest that further implementation of market reforms could result in a structural shift to less carbon-intensive production and thus lower carbon emissions per unit GDP. However, this fall in carbon intensity is not enough to compensate for the greater use of energy as a result of market reforms due to higher economic growth and changes in the composition of production. Therefore, China's transition to a market economy could result in significantly higher economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions. These results could have implications for other countries considering or undergoing market transition.

Epidemiological studies have shown a significant association between ambient particulate matter (PM) exposures and increased mortality and morbidity risk. Power plants are significant emitters of precursor gases of fine particulate matter. To evaluate the public health risk posed by power plants, it is necessary to evaluate population exposure to different pollutants. The concept of intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant emitted that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population) has been proposed to provide a simple summary measure of the relationship between emissions and exposure. Currently available intake fraction estimates from developing countries used models that look only at the near field impacts, which may not capture the full impact of a pollution source. This case study demonstrated how the intake fraction of power plant emissions in China can be calculated using a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model—CALPUFF. We found that the intake fraction of primary fine particles is roughly on the order of 10⁻⁵, while the intake fractions of sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrate are on the order of 10⁻⁶. These estimates are an order of magnitude higher than the US estimates. We also tested how sensitive the results were to key assumptions within the model. The size distribution of primary particles has a large impact on the intake fraction for primary particles while the background ammonia concentration is an important factor influencing the intake fraction of nitrate. The background ozone concentration has a moderate impact on the intake fraction of sulfate and nitrate. Our analysis shows that this approach is applicable to a developing country and it provides reasonable population exposure estimates.

We explore the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 flux estimates from a specific inversion methodology, based on the configuration of Fan et al. [1998], to different configurations of the global observation network. Using diagnostics derived from the inversion equations, we focus on quantifying the relative influence of individual stations on the flux estimates. We also examine the impact of different assumptions for the data uncertainty values by contrasting weighted and unweighted inversions and presenting related sensitivity analyses. For this particular methodology, unweighted estimates of continental scale fluxes prove very sensitive to network configuration. The inclusion or omission of a few important stations in and around the northern continents can result in shifts in continental‐scale flux estimates of up to 1.5 Gt C/year. The weighted estimates are less sensitive to network configuration. Diagnostics of relative station influence indicate that this results from the reduced roles of previously influential continental sites; i.e., those stations characterized by high levels of data uncertainty. In the weighted approach, stations on continental peripheries associated with lower levels of data uncertainty are the most important in determining terrestrial fluxes. Finally, using the diagnostics of relative station influence, we discuss potential sampling strategies for the determination of regional fluxes from surface measurements.

This paper identifies factors that can explain the variation in the diffusion of continuous casting technology among Chinese steel firms during the period 1985–1995. Potential factors affecting firm-level diffusion of continuous casting technology are tested econometrically using data from 75 Chinese steel firms. The results suggest that institutional factors, such as management structure, have had a significant influence on a firm's rate of diffusion. In particular, the results show that although centrally managed firms are typically the first to acquire a new technology, complete integration of the technology into the production process occurs more rapidly in firms that are locally managed. Furthermore, the results suggest that certain market factors are important in a locally managed firm's decision to convert, but seem to have played a lesser role in centrally managed firms. These results imply that although centrally managed firms have better access to new technologies due to their close ties to the central government, locally managed firms may possess a greater incentive to improve production efficiency through the incorporation of new technology.

In 1995, daily mortality in a district of Chongqing, China, was analyzed from January through
December for associations with daily ambient sulfur dioxide and fine particles (airborne particles
with diameters ≤ 2.5 μm; PM2.5). The mean concentration of PM2.5 was 147 μg/m3 (maximum,
666 μg/m3), and that of SO2 was 213 μg/m3 (maximum, 571 μg/m3). On average, 9.6 persons
died each day. We used a generalized additive model using robust Poisson regression to estimate
the associations of mean daily SO2 and PM2.5 with daily mortality (on the same day and at lags up
to 5 days) adjusted for trend, season, temperature, humidity, and day of the week. The relative
risk of mortality associated with a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was highest on the second
lag day [1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00–1.09] and the third lag day (1.04; 95% CI,
0.99–1.08). The associations between daily mortality and mean daily PM2.5 were negative and statistically
insignificant on all days. The relative risk of respiratory mortality on the second day after
a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02–1.22), and that for cardiovascular
mortality was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.02–1.20). The relative risk of cardiovascular mortality on the
third day after a 100 μg/m3 increase in mean daily SO2 was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.11–1.30). The relative
risks of mortality due to cancer and other causes were insignificant on both days. The estimated
effects of mean daily SO2 on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risk remained after controlling for PM2.5.